Run/Rally Shares [merged threads]

[Ytown Tribe fan]

I will be compiling Run Shares for the Tribe this season, if anyone's interested. If nothing else, it will serve as a comparison to Runs Created.

Run Shares are simply the number of runs that a team scores in an inning divided by the number of players who contributed to the scoring in that inning. Each player who contributed in that inning gets an equal share of the number of runs scored in that inning.

A player who makes an out in that inning will not get a Run Share UNLESS his out directly contributed to a run (such as a SF or SH that scores a runner, or moves a runner into position to score who normally wouldn't otherwise end up scoring). A player who hits safely in an inning, but doesn't contribute to scoring will not get a Run Share.

Run Shares don't replace anything, but are meant only to augment the basic counting stats of Runs and RBI.

It is my opinion that Runs Created, and the other average-based stats like OPS, accurately measure how good a hitter is, but don't necessarily measure how productive he is. A lot of times, being good isn't enough -- being lucky and taking advantage of an opportunity contribute to scoring. That is real life baseball.

A batter who draws a walk and doesn't score or advance another runner that ends up scoring has, in my opinion, proven the DEFENSIVE value that walks have for the opposing team on occasion.

Also, a batter who singles or doubles or triples with the bases empty and is left stranded, may be a fine hitter, but still did not contribute to his team's scoring due to dumb luck. That is real life baseball too.

Scoring is the bottom line on offense in baseball. It is the ONLY thing that matters on offense. Run Shares takes the basic stats of Runs and RBI one step further, since it gives equal credit to the guys who "do the little things that don't show up in the other stats". Give that as much or as little weight as you want. Give it NO weight if you want.

If Run Shares end up being directly comparable to Runs Created, that will give Runs Created more creedence, IMO. Again, Run Shares are based on reality -- the reality that teams score runs through the events of one inning, one inning at a time only, and have nothing to do with averages or total bases or anything else other than a team's actual scoring.

[gyb13]

so, by that system, all HR (whether solos or grand slams) would be worth 1 run share

[Wolf Hopper]

Originally posted by Ytown Tribe fan
Scoring is the bottom line on offense in baseball. It is the ONLY thing that matters on offense.

I would disagree -- you have to reach base before you can even think about scoring.

Scoring is the descendant of reaching base safely.

Therefore, reaching safely is the only thing that matters, IMHO.

[satchel]

I really like YTown's ideas here - thanks for posting them, and I look forward to seeing the Tribe's stats develop over the season. That sounds like a lot of work as well, so thanks in advance.

A technical question - suppose batter 1 walks, and batter 2 bunts batter 1 into scoring position. As I understand the system you've described, if batter 3 hits a single and batter 1 scores, batter 2 gets a run share for putting batter 3 into scoring position. The question is, does batter 2 still get the run share if batter 3 hits a home run?

The above leads into considerations of the fact that run shares, like win shares, is not team-independent. It bothers me that the team nature of the game can obscure or at least distort some facets of individual performance. It makes things very hard to measure.

It is that problem that leads to me to agreement with the Wolf formerly known as Max that ability to get on base is the best measure of a player's performance.

[gyb13]

Originally posted by Ytown Tribe fan
who normally wouldn't otherwise end up scoring

to satch's point, i guess the quote above is open to interpretation

[sweaver]

The problem with "Run Shares" is the same as the problem with runs and runs scored....it is entirely dependent on context. Quality of teammates and how the park affects offense are very influential.

It could yield interesting information, but cannot be as important as OBA or OPS.

[LisaG]

this is really interesting. just about every stat except walks and home runs is dependent on interaction with members of both your own and the opposing team. i mean the quality of the other offensive players will determine whether or not there is someone on base for you to advance and the quality of the opposing defense can determine whether or not you get a base or an out. maybe there is a way to adjust for this (like with "park factors") but i don't understand well enough how the formulas are created.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Satch: You bring up a good scenerio. The answer is: no, the bunter doesn't get credit for a Run Share. In short, my method requires that a player making an out has to be part of bringing a runner home in order to get credit.

A team has only two outs in order to do all their scoring in a given inning. Two outs. That makes outs a precious commodity.

All: Is it fair? No. Baseball isn't fair. It isn't fair that some pitchers can throw 100+mph but can't find the strike zone. It isn't fair that Barry Bonds is so good that he walks 150+ times a year when he could be driving in more runs. Is it fair that a batter can hit three doubles and a triple and still have his team shut out? No. He is still a fine batter, but it doesn't matter in the least if his team doesn't score runs.

Again -- my dumb stat doesn't replace any other stat. It doesn't measure how "good" a hitter is, on average over the course of a season. It attempts to give credit for the individual's contribution to the scoring in each inning. EQUAL credit. That is ALL that it does.

I am not claiming that scoring is what baseball is all about. If it were, few would go to ballgames. People go to games to watch the dot race too, and to spend times with their kids. As Terry Pluto once put it so well, "Sometimes, baseball is what men can talk to their fathers about when they can't talk to them about anything else." My dumb stat is simply an attempt to measure one aspect of scoring that may not show up in the other stats. Period.

Already in the Tribe's young season, I have found instances of a player earning a Run Share and not getting a Run or RBI in the game. I have also found a strong correlation between Run Shares and the average of a player's Runs and RBI. This is totally expected. At this stage, it is too early to make good use of Runs Created, but I will be posting each batter's totals of all those categories on a monthly basis.

[sweaver]

On that basis, that EVERYONE who participates in a run gets credit, it's a good stat. The guy that gets the first-to-third single in between the walk and the sacrifice fly should get some credit too, after all.

I was just afraid, from your opening statement, that you thought this was somehow the new "key" stat.

[nyy26wc]

Originally posted by Ytown Tribe fan
A batter who draws a walk and doesn't score or advance another runner that ends up scoring has, in my opinion, proven the DEFENSIVE value that walks have for the opposing team on occasion.

In my opinion, that same batter has proven the OFFENSIVE value of depleting the team's quota of 3 outs.

And whenever they're a 9th inning rally, not making outs earlier in the game, and instead advancing the lineup (to borrow a term from some broadcaster who I can't remember who) contributed in the respect that the team's 27 total outs would have been used up, team loses, if it wasn't for what would appear on its face to have been a "meaningless" hit.

And you don't even have to be talking about the 9th inning. How about this situation--

1ST INNING--2 outs, A gets a hit and gets stranded on base

4TH INNING--bases loaded, B strikeouts for out #2, C triples to score 3 runs, D strikes outs

5TH INNING--3 up, 3 down ... the first 2 are either strikeouts, popups or something else that wouldn't score a runner from 3rd

In this situation, A's hit did contribute to those 3 runs. If A makes an out, then everything gets pushed back--what was the last out of the 1st becomes the 1st out of the 2nd and so on until B's SO in the 4th becomes one that ends an inning and strands all 3 runners. Then, C's 3 RBI triple turns into an inning starting triple that the next 2 guys couldn't get him home and the 3rd makes an out.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Didn't take long to prove Lee correct (about walks) and justify Run Shares somewhat:

From today's game against the Chi Sox:

-Bottom of the 2nd inning
-K Garcia reached on infield single to pitcher.
-J Bard doubled to deep right center, K Garcia to third.
-T Hafner lined out to third.
-C Blake walked.
-B Phillips grounded into fielder's choice to first, K Garcia scored, C Blake out at second, J Bard to third.
-M Bradley struck out swinging.


Now, Garcia and Bard were involved with the scoring. Hafner and Bradley weren't. Phillips actually drove in the run with a fielder's choice. Bard's double and Blake's walk are two of the keys. If Blake makes an out without scoring Garcia, then there IS no FC, since Phillips would make the third out of the inning.

Therefore, I credit Garcia, Bard, Phillips AND Blake with 0.25 Run Shares each for that inning. Once again it shows the value of NOT making an out in the middle of a rally, even though neither Bard nor Blake are credited with a Run or RBI.

Innings like this are why I came up with Run Shares. It took four guys to get one run across and one guy scored a run and one guy got an RBI. But the other two were at least equal keys to the scoring. Run Shares gives them credit.

[satchel]

YTown, your post above, in between sweaver and LisaG, was wonderful. As I said before, I like your run shares ideas, and you wrote a really nice post not merely explaining your thoughts clearly and eloquently, but also capturing a little of the poetry of baseball as well. Kudos and thank you!

Since I watch more AL ball than NL ball, there's another aspect to the non-run-advancing hit or walk that I didn't think of before - turning the lineup over. If you're an NL club, and you've got the #8 hitter coming up with two outs, you stand a much better chance of scoring next inning if your #8 guy gets on base right now. You'd much rather have your pitcher making out #3 than out #1.

The only time this might not apply is when you were planning to change pitchers anyway - then might prefer to have your pinch hitter leading off the next inning than hitting with two outs and a man on first.

[sweaver]

Shouldn't Bard get "extra credit" for the double? 0.40 RS, with the others getting 0.20, rather than 0.25?

[Ytown Tribe fan]

(How to waste time reinventing stats)

After a month's worth of examining each scoring inning of each Tribe game, I came to the conclusion that Run Shares/Rally Shares/Run Components wasn't any better than actual Run/RBI data at determining how a player performed in run-scoring situations.

Worse -- I invented a new stat, "Runners Moved", which basically counted every time a batter moved a runner who eventually scored without getting credit for an RBI. This stat actually held promise, since it actually did count something that wasn't readily counted before and was of value to a team (even a team that doesn't score many runs, like the Tribe).

So I went through every inning of every game again until the realization hit that all I had to do was go to ESPN.com and look at the team batting stats with runners on base and use the simple formula (H + BB - RBI) for each batter and come damned close to what I was trying to count in the first place. It isn't exact, since batters reach on errors and FC's, and not every runner ends up scoring -- but it comes really close.

It was a fun exercise though, and I did find that there was very little correlation between Run, RBI, Rally Shares, and Runs Created; but that there was a BIG correlation between Runners Moved and batting order position, which anyone who watches Omar bat second or leadoff could figure out in no time, and that the correlation continued to the Run/RBI differential, which is even more obvious.

Results (be prepared to be overwhelmed with fresh insights):

1) Batters that are high in the batting order have more runs than RBI.

2) Batters that do better with runners on base have more Runners Moved than other batters.

2A) Batters that have more PAs with runners on base have more Runners Moved than other batters, especially if they have high OBAs in that situation.

3) Batters with a lot of Runs AND RBI have more Runs Created than other batters, especially if they also perform better with runners on base.

Okay, that last one is MAYBE a fresher insight. The Runs created formula was in fact changed to reward a player who performed better with runners in scoring position, so that seems to validate that change in the formula. It made sense anyway.

I told ya you'd be overwhelemed with these insights!

[rcartman28]

Fresher insights are ALWAYS appreciated. Thanks......