Edgar Renteria - possible HOF?

[WiredTiger]

So he's not that great of player in my mind but hear me out. He has 1061 hits going into this season. He'll turn 28 in August. He has averaged 150 hits over the course of his career. At that pace he'll have 1211 at the end of this year. He'd have to play approximately 12 more years and average 150 hits to reach 3000. He doesn't walk much so he may be able to keep up this pace.

He is helped by the fact that he started so early. He has been a starter since age 20. I think if Renteria where to reach 3000 he would be the first guy to reach 3000 hits that I wouldn't vote for.

[Max Power]

Is he 26 or 28 this year? Was he one that aged last year?

[Max Power]

Even if he's 26, he's no lock for 3,000.

Many have had more hits by that age and never made it to 3,000 - - - - - Bill Mazeroski, Rusty Staub, Ted Simmons, Rusty Staub, Ruben Sierra, Cesar Cedeno, Orlando Cepeda, Vada Pinson.

In fact, he'll probably end up like Garry Templeton - who had just about the same number of hits by 26.

[gyb13]

check back in five years...

[Ytown Tribe fan]

It will be interesting to see what the HoF Veteran's Committee will look like in 25-30 years or so. What players from this era will get favorable treatment because guys like Barry and Mac and Cal are fondly remembering the good old days?

Off topic, but did you know that in 1979, 23 of the 432 members of the BBWAA did NOT vote to enshrine Willie Mays? I'd sure like to know who they were.

[Craig S.]

He'd actually have to average 162 hits for the next 12 seasons, if that's the period you're looking at. Still not a huge amount, but a 19-year career is a large assumption to make.

My guess is that he ends up like one of the guys Steve mentioned, with a good, solid career, but not one to be immortalized.

[sweaver]

It COULD happen. Renteria has laid the foundation of a Hall of Fame career. He has a World Series ring, some good hitting stats, and has played good defense.

Like gyb said, check back in 5 years.

[Luis]

The only speculation that I have ever heard concerning Renteria's age involved him actually being a year younger than his stated age not two years older.

[gyb13]

Edgar Renteria
2002 13 RCAA
Career -71 RCAA

[JamesI]

I would consider it highly unlikely Renteria ever made the hall. Of course he's still young enough to change my mind.

[KCBOOMER]

Amongst shortstops <26 and with at least 2500 at bats he is 22nd in OPS and 41 in RCAA. Not exactly a good sign.

[LeGrandOrange]

Now now now, let's not get hasty with the HOF posts.

[Golden Bear]

His best comp at age 26 is Alan Trammell, who stayed good for another ten years, peaking at age 29 (1987). And Trammell hasn't gotten a whiff of the HOF yet. (He should, but he hasn't yet.) Renteria needs another 10 years just to be around the place that Trammell is.

And that's assuming that Renteria is really 26.

Another example is Tony Fernandez, who was not comparable to Renteria at age 36 -- he was better. But Fernandez couldn't really sustain his peak very long and started bouncing from team to team, with a couple stints in Japan. He retired in 2001 after what was actually a much better career than he was given credit for (I could make a pretty fair HOF case for Fernandez too) but without the kind of legacy that really leads to the formation of any kind of HOF bandwagon (particularly after a couple generations of super-shortstops).

Two points to sum up:

1. Renteria is not nearly so good now that you can linearly project a HOF career -- he needs to get better.

2. It's really too soon to make any informed judgment.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Baseballreference.com lists Renteria as 27, going on 28 (DOB 8-7-75).

Renteria averages 151 hits per year. To get 3,000 hits he would have to keep that up until age 40. That's a little unlikely, in that he is suceptable to injuries, and would probably not be a very valuble player if he had to move out of the middle infield.

However, Renteria averages about 165-170 hits per season if he is healthy. Couple this with the fact that he is entering his prime years, and 3,000 hits becomes more likely.

It should be noted, however, that Steve Sax had a 42% chance at 3,000 hits after the 1991 season, according to Bill James' Favorite Toy. Sax immediately went into the tank, and his chances for 3,000 hits plummeted to near zero in just two years. This happened because Steve Sax was an example of a player who had a good chance at 3,000 hits because (A) he started young, (B) he got a regular job and kept it, while minimizing injury, but fell short because (C) he really wasn't a great player.

I'm using the 3,000 hit milestone here because 3,000 hits is the minimum "HOF automatic" one can come up with that Renteria could possibly achieve. It is hard to imagine a player who does not hit .300 lifetime, and does not have a lot of power, and is not the best player in the league at his position for a decent period of time, while active, have much of a chance for the HOF short of 3,000 hits. Bill James once said "No one gets 3,000 hits if he isn't a great player." There is some truth to that; the feat is quite daunting. How does one get started early enough and hang on long enough without extinguishing their playing time if they aren't really great players?

The biggest barrier for Renteria entering the HOF is not his numbers. Historically, Renteria's numbers are within the parameters of HOF shortstops, assuming he has a full career, projecting out as one would reasonably do. The problem is that Renteria will be compared to A-Rod, Jeter, Nomar, probably Tejada, and Larkin. The only thing he will have going for his candidacy, short of 3,000 hits, is if he establishes himself as the best SS in the NL (he may already have done that) and HOLDS THAT POSITION for 5-6 years. If he does, he may supplant Jim Edmonds as the #2 star on the Cardinals (behind Albert Pujols). That, too would help.

Right now, though, Renteria's chances are tied up in his being able to reach 3,000 hits. I suspect his chances are about 15% right now, though 4-5 seasons in a row of averaging 170+ hits and those chances increase to somewhere close to where Sax was at age 31.

It's a long haul, though. Based on past records of injuries, I doube Renteria will show the long term durability to get to 3,000, or even to 2,800. In the end, I think he'll fall short, barring improvement that is not indicated by his career to date.

[gyb13]

i was wondering when you were gonna chime in, fuzz!