Bad Vlad or Clemente?

[say hey student]

My pops and I were having one of those my generation is better than your generation debates over the phone last night when we got into it over Roberto Clemente vs. Vladimir Guererro debates.

My contention remains that, while Clemente would obviously remain the consensus better fielder if Vlad's career ended today, Vlad will have had the better career if he can maintain his current level of achievement for another 8 years or so. As we all know, Clemente was producing right up until the end and ended up with 18 seasons under his belt. Currently, Vlad really has 5 full seasons under his belt.

Most of their offensive numbers are comparable, with the slight edge in the power numbers to Vlad. My dad's contention is that Vlad is not half the fielder that Clemente was. He even contends that Clemente had the better arm. He also points out that it is unrealistic that Vlad will ever reach 3000 hits. Finally, he continually reminds me that Clemente would have been an effective player for another 3 seasons.

What do y'all think. Of course this is all conjecture because of the assumptions made on Vlad's part, but those of you who saw both play... What's the verdict.

On a final note, my dad and I thought it was interesting that both are latin players that played second fiddle to the widely recognized superstar of the age. In the case of Roberto it was Mays; Vlad has to contend with Bonds. And I can't help but gloat. God it is good to be a Giants fan.

[pwdennis]

It is speculation, of course, but I think that Clemente had entered his decline phase. It is not clear to me that the oft-injured Clemente had three more productive seasons left. One yes, two probably.

As to playing second fiddle to Mays and Bonds, what do you expect? Since Mays and Bonds are two, of the top ten (perhaps top six) players in baseball history, it is no knock on Vlad or Roberto to say they weren't as good. If you were 60% as good as Barry Bonds you could carve out a nice long MLB career for yourself. Heck, 75% of Barry = Cooperstown

[nightal]

This is a hard argument, but I'll take Clemente, the game's different today, who knows what Roberto would do in today's offensive game.
He played most of his career in the run scarce '60s facing Gibson, Koufax, Marichal, Perry and Drysdale among others.
BTW, it's no big thing to be second banana to Mays or (and I hate to say this), Bonds, these are two of the best 10 or so players ever.

[JamesI]

I think I'd rather have Clemente. But Vlad could be better when he retires.

[clemente21]

Gee, I wonder how I'm going to weigh in here.... I love Vlad, but I just don't see it yet. Duke Snider, yes, but not Roberto Clemente. But there's nothing wrong with being this generation's Duke Snider - maybe he and Wilton can even have a song written about them??

Clemente was no longer a 150 game/year player, with 138/108/132/102 games in his last four years. His production when playing, however, was still excellent. I wonder what PECOTA would say ("Mr. Silver, please pick up the yellow and black courtesy phone..."), but I can see a path of 125 quality games in 1973/1974 at OF (think Tony Gwynn's 1998-9 seasons, diminishing power but a .370 OBP), then moving to DHing 4x/week on a team with a large Puerto Rican fan base as part of the 1976 expansion dilution.

The 1975-77 Yankees would have been a perfect fit for him, playing Sat/Sun/Tue/Thu and taking time away from the likes of

1975: Elliott Maddox, Ed Hermann, Ron Bloomberg
1976: Carlos May (no need to make that early-season trade)
1977: May and the swan song of Jimmy Wynn

He gets another World Series ring, and probably passes Musial's 3630 hits for #4 all-time.

On the other hand...

It's just as likely that Clemente could have mimicked Billy Williams the rest of the way from 1973-1976, four steadily declining seasons as the physical tools started to go. But even there, that's 470 more hits, and he jumps up to #6 all-time in hits.

[Max Power]

Vlad has played 892 games to date. Take Roberto's first 7 years and he's played 917. That's a close match.

At that point, both would have been around 26-27.

Clemente had a +18 OPS in those 7 years.
Guerrero's has been +195.

Of course, from 1963-72, Clemente's OPS was +173.

Gotta see what Vlad does the next ten years before making a call here.

The last time a hitter got off to this kind of start, at this age, after these many games, like Vlad, was Joe Jackson.

Stay away from Chicago Vladdie..........

[Craig S.]

To this point in their careers, it's Vlad by a mile. Still too tough to measure them, though, for at least several more seasons. If Vlad keeps it up, then it won't even be close.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Could be Vlad.

Roberto was just taking off as a hitter at age 26, whereas Vlad's been a great hitter for four years already.

Roberto's best hitting comp through age 26: Johnny Damon. Vlad's: Willie Mays.

But Roberto's OPS+ after age 26 is up there with the greats.

Defensively, Roberto was outstanding compared to his peers, Vlad is slightly less so, but still one of the best.

[pathogan]

...Clemente was THE Latin star,carrying an enormous burden, THAT intangible is impossible to equate into numbers...

[Bruce Markusen]

Just wanted to point out that today, March 20, marks the 30th anniversary of Clemente's election to the Hall of Fame. In January of 1973, the Hall's Board of Directors voted to waive the mandatory five-year waiting period in the aftermath of Clemente's death. The results of the special election were announced on March 20, with Clemente receiving 91 per cent of the vote.

To commemorate the 30th anniversary, we had two special presentations on Clemente's life and career at the Hall of Fame earlier today. One was for students from our local high school--Cooperstown Central School--and the other was for the general public. It was great to see, even 30 years after the fact, that Clemente's story still draws a strong reaction from both kids and adults.

[Skip]

'The Great One' indeed.

[KCBOOMER]

Vlad is certainly off to a better start by quite a bit, but he has a long way to go to match the career of Clemente. Like Max says it will be ten years before we can really put this question to rest.

Clemente may have a small edge as a fielder but this is all about the bat.

[gyb13]

can someone with win shares handy tell us where they compare at this stage in their careers?

[sweaver]

Win Shares for Clemente, starting in 1955: 7,14,5,16,10, 20 (1960), 26,20,22,30 (in 1964).

Vlad, starting with 1997: 10, 29, 28, 29, 23 (in 2001). Don't have 2002 handy. Vlad has risen to a high level faster.

[TimmyB]

While it's impossible to know what will happen with Vlad down the road (who knows, maybe he ends up in NY or something like that and he melts under the media pressure; or he turns into the next Barry Bonds -- who knows?), if I had to choose between Vlad and Roberto at the same age/stage of career, I would have to lean towards Vlad.

As has been pointed out a couple times in this thread, Clemente took off over the next comparable 10 years. I hope this will be as interesting a debate in 2013.