500 not enough?

[Ytown Tribe fan]

This debate is going on at BP; I thought I'd bring it here.

The following players are likely to reach 500+ homers before they hang 'em up. Who will be the FIRST 500-homer hitter to NOT get elected to the Hall of Fame?

This is kind of a loaded poll. I don't really think any of the players will hit 500 AND not make the hall, mainly because I don't think Juan Gonzalez will reach 500.

I definitely think that over the next 15 or so years there will be a bevy of new members in the 500 homer club. I think the number of players that reach 600+ will have more of an effect on HOF credentials.

[sweaver]

I didn't vote for any of them, because I expect all of them to make the Hall eventually. Gonzalez is the longest shot, well maybe McGriff, but Juan Gone also has 2 MVPs and Crime Dog has lots of post-season pedigree.

[WiredTiger]

I think all of these guys will probably get in. If they are over 500 Home runs then it means they all played half way decently for the remainder of their careers.

[JamesI]

I think McGriff has the best chance of 500 and not making the hall.

I don't think Piazza, Frank Thomas, Juan Gone, will reach 500 homers. Piazza maybe, if he becomes a DH or 1b.

I also don't belive Juan Gone or Frank Thomas are hall of famers.

[Max Power]

Originally posted by sopclod
This is kind of a loaded poll. I don't really think any of the players will hit 500 AND not make the hall, mainly because I don't think Juan Gonzalez will reach 500.

Agree.

[Rajah]

I think they are all HOF'ers. Some in the media may be smoking something and say they are not. But they are all HOF caliber.

[SmedIndy]

The Crime Dog may be excluded - fairly or not. Just my hunch.

[Craig S.]

Assuming they all reached 500, I think McGriff has the worst HOF chances.

[KCBOOMER]

Well McGriff will make it but he might become the cut off guy for 1B's. Of the 18 guys who have more RCAA's then him fourteen are in the HoF, three are active (Palmeiro, Thomas, and Bagwell), and one is Dick Allen. There are very few 1B's in the HoF below McGriff (Sisler, Chance, Cepeda.

If Juan Gone doesn't get 500 he's toast. He only needs 95 and he won't be 33 until September so normally you'd say he is a lock. But he hit less than 10 last year and missed 90 games. If he gets his health back he makes it easily and if he doesn't he doesn't even get a whiff.

All the others are locks if they get 500 HR's.

[Skip]

If they all get to 500, I tend to think they'll all make the HOF, though some probably have to get the 500 to make it. That said, JuanGone is the bottom of my list of this bunch.

[pathogan]

...500 is still a get-out -of jail free pass into the hall...

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by Skip
If they all get to 500, I tend to think they'll all make the HOF, though some probably have to get the 500 to make it. That said, JuanGone is the bottom of my list of this bunch.

Juan Gone's stats:

www.baseballreference.com/g/gonzaju03.shtml

I think Juan Gone will get his 500 HRs. I also think he'll get into the HOF.

By the time he's eligible people will see the HRs, a good BA, and two (2) MVP awards. It will be pretty hard to make a case against enshrining a player with all of those accomplishments. Five hundred HRs is still a lot of jacks; most guys who are not truly great sluggers fall short in the 350-390 range.

Like Jim Rice!

[gyb13]

Originally posted by pathogan
...500 is still a get-out -of jail free pass into the hall...

pretty much... unless Canseco makes it

[JamesI]

Originally posted by gyb13
pretty much... unless Canseco makes it

I disagree. I don't think 500 is automatic anymore. Canseco would not make the hall with 500, and I'm not certain McGriff will either.