Matt Williams' place in Baseball History

[Fuzzy Bear]

www.baseballreference.com/w/willima04.shtml

Matt Williams is coming into the home stretch of his career. Has he done enough to be worthy of the HOF?

Williams has 374 HRs to date with a .269 BA. His OBP is only .316, but he has driven in 1202 runs.

Williams is a four (4) time Gold Glove winner and a five (5) time All-Star. He led the NL with 43 HRs in 1994, and was on pace to break Maris' record at the time of the strike.

Williams was, arguably, the best 3B in the NL from 1990-96. He was not the best in the league in the way that George Brett was the best in the league, but he was the best, offensively and defensively, overall, during that period. I believe he was a better player than Terry Pendleton the year Terry Pendleton won the MVP, and many of you probably agree.

Matt is a borderline HOFer right now, IMO, suffering more from the prejudice against slugging 3B than anything else.

I believe Williams to be a more worthy candidate than Rice or Evans (sorry, Red Sox Nation) due to his defensive contributions at 3B.

Injuries have hurt Williams' career. He has not been the most durable; this is the most serious knock against him.

Nonetheless, I believe that Williams is near the point where he would be a "Highest Common Denominator" HOF candidate, in that there would be no comparable player who has done what he has done that is NOT in the HOF.

Williams could well attain 400+ lifetime HRs this year. He could go as high as 450 for a career, although that's a little tough, and 500 is probably out of reach at this point. He HR rate of 33 per 162 games is excellent for a 3B.

Is Matt Williams a HOFer right now?

If not, what does he need to do to get there? Or is there nothing he can possibly do to deserve to be there, at this point?

And WILL he get in, deserving or not?

[pwdennis]

Williams is not quite HOF material at this point. He sorts of falls in the same category as Tony Oliva - a Hall of Famer if he'd stayed healthy , only Oliva was a much more dangerous hitter. Adjusting for eras makes any comparison between the two ridiculous. Williams , of course, had greater defensive value.

Only because he was a 3B would this discussion be worth having . If Matt Williams were an OF or 1B he wouldn't be close to being HOF material . Even as it is, he needs to do more to really be worthy of Cooperstown. A look at his current comps reveals a lot of slow footed fairly devent OFs and 1Bs, none of whom have yet gotten a sniff of Cooperstown's rarified air:

Rocky Colavito (898)
George Foster (898)
Ron Cey (880)
Frank Howard (870)
Robin Ventura (862)
Gil Hodges (852)
Jack Clark (851)
Joe Adcock (848)
Greg Luzinski (847)
Lee May (846)

Fairly good players all, but that's about it. I'm not sure where I would rate Williams among the all-timers at 3B but it would be below the top tier

[SmedIndy]

He will be as remembered in 50 years as Harlond Clift and Ken Keltner are now, and in 100 years as Harry Steinfeldt and Jerry Denny are now.

Nothing to get excited about. No need for 10-page diatribes. He's not good enough, never will be.

[LeGrandOrange]

He's just going to be this era's Ron Cey. Nothing else. He'll be very good for his career and an automatic to NetShrine, but one and out in the HOF voting.

[TGwynn19]

no way, no how is Matt Williams a HOF'er.

[cubfan33]

BP's PECOTA has a different system for predicting players based on historical similarities. Since most are familiar with the James scores, I'm quoting some of the PECOTA info here.

NOTE: PECOTA info is (C) BP 2003 and used with permission.

For Williams, his most similar players at this age are Ken Boyer, George Hendrick, and Chris Speier. More notably, Williams has a drop rate (meaning the likelihood he'll be out of baseball) of 27.4% for next year and over 60% in 2004.

For me, it looks like Williams will fall short of HOF numbers and certainly is less deserving than Ron Santo. Williams may miss the hype of the Maris chase in 94 more than any other candidate I can recall.

Plug: PECOTA is available only at BP Premium. See Will for details

[Max Power]

Not much difference between Matt and Ken Caminiti for me.

[Rajah]

Matts another "woulda coulda shoulda" to me. He could have been among the all time greats, but he spent too much time hurt. It also seems like he crashed pretty fast offensively. I can't remember him doing much of anything of note since leaving Cleveland. Besides being way overpaid that is. If he'd have stayed just a little healthier, and gotten over that 400 homer mark by now, I'd be much more open to the idea.

[JamesI]

I have to agree with everyone. Had Williams stayed healthy, he could be a hall of famer. But his injury problems and the 1994 strike cost him a lot.

[rcartman28]

I don't think he quite makes it, either. He was very good for awhile, but too many injuries and not quite big enough numbers.

[Golden Bear]

I've been touting Matt Williams as a HOF candidate for years now, for all the reasons Fuzzy states. Great fielder, great slugger, on winning teams, etc.

But then he loses one season to being hurt, and then another, and then a half season here and two months there...and now it looks like he's just about done, and the case isn't nearly made.

When a guy never gets that "superstar" label, for whatever reasons, (and I think Williams may have merited the label at his mid-90's peak), you've got to pile up the stats. Williams just hasn't stayed healthy enough to do that. Shoot, he doesn't even have 2000 hits or 1000 runs yet -- and he's not a lock to get there at this point. He's 37, and his team would trade him if they could find a taker.

If he has a major career revival -- and not one last hurrah, but three-odd All-Star or near All-Star quality seasons, then he's got a shot. Failing that, I think he's a near miss. He'll never overcome the slugging-low BA 3b problem.

[Golden Bear]

You know, I'm not even sure he doesn't deserve it. But look at the line of potentially deserving players at 3b. No research here; this is the top of my head:

Wade Boggs
Ron Santo
Ken Boyer
Stan Hack
Lave Cross
Darrell Evans
Graig Nettles
Gary Gaetti
Buddy Bell
Robin Ventura
Chipper Jones

He's probably better than Gaetti or Bell. He's in a group with Nettles and Evans -- the ordering there is unclear; similar-type players. The book is not closed on Ventura and Jones.

Boggs is in as soon as he is eligible. Santo was better. Boyer was better. Hack and Cross, while the comparison gets harder comparing across all that time, probably were better too.

Even if Williams meets your personal HOF standards (and most who are weighing in here indicate he does not), you gotta figure he'll have a long wait to get to the window to have his ticket punched, because he's got five or more guys who need to get their tickets punched first. And more could be coming (Chavez, Glaus, Rolen...all conceivably on their way)

[sweaver]

I don't think Matt Williams belongs in the Hall. But an interesting point has been raised, about how a full 1994 season might have affected his legacy. Had Williams been the first to match or exceed Roger Maris, would he make the Hall?

I think so. And in that light, I think the 1994 work stoppage cost Matt Williams the Hall of Fame.

[Golden Bear]

Wow; I think you're right. For that matter, even if he'd come close -- if he'd hung a 57 HR season up, say, I think he'd still make it. He'd be less than 10 HR shy of 400 in that case, which is an attention-getting round number.

Collateral damage of the labor wars. Damn shame. Unless you're Ted Williams (for example), you need a little luck to make the HOF. Matt didn't have it.

[nyy26wc]

Originally posted by sweaver
I don't think Matt Williams belongs in the Hall. But an interesting point has been raised, about how a full 1994 season might have affected his legacy. Had Williams been the first to match or exceed Roger Maris, would he make the Hall?

Considering that being the first to exceed Babe Ruth never allowed Roger Maris to come close, I don't see how being the first to exceed Roger Maris could really have mattered in Matt Williams's case.