Where The Players Come From

[NetShrine]

Baseball America looked at the 1,227 players that appeared in the bigs in 2000, and tracked back to the orginial teams that signed them.

Of course, FLA, COL, ARZ, and TB were the bottom four.

The top three were:

1. Dodgers 61
2. Expos 60
3. Mets 59

For a point of reference, middle of the pack was around 43.

Here's the interesting part, of those numbers, how many are still with the team?

1. Dodgers 13 of 61.
2. Expos 18 of 60.
3. Mets 8 of 59.

The Mets, by far, had the lowest % of players signed still on their team.

Eve-balling it, ballpark, sans the bottom four, most teams were around 12 to 14 for 40 to 50.

The Angels had the highest number kept, 20 for 49. The Twins were good too @ 18 for 45. Close to the Mets level was SF @ 9 for 43. SD was 10 for 41.

Middle of the pack guys, White Sox, Astros, Pirates were all near 15 for 43.

Surprized at any of these?

[BuzzBuzzard]

How about not surprised with respect to the Mets. They have raided the farm for years to get veterans. It went on throughout the '90s. That is why they have to win now, especially with the upcoming labor outage. Piazza/Ventura/Zeile/Reed/Leiter/Franco/Wendell will not get it done at age 40 (they may not get in done at age 33).

Thank god they have managed to keep Escobar in the organization, so far.

[NetShrine]

I have another theory. How many rookies are good players? Maybe 2 or 4 in all of the bigs each year? Usually, a rookie struggles in his first year. In the 2nd year, he might be OK. The 3rd year, if he continues to improve, he'll be somewhere between better-than-average to very good to star.

I know these are generalizations - but, on the whole, usually a guy needs about three years in the bigs to blossom at the level. (Bernie Williams is a pretty good example of this pattern.)

Teams in big media markets with big expectations - like the Mets - can't wait three years on a guy, and facilitate the learning curve (unless the player has a good glove and plays a key defensive position).

So, you might as well trade them and get someone that can play now.

Teams like Montreal can wait on a guy. Larry Walker hit .241 his first year. Vidro hit .249 and .220 his 1st two years. But, since the team has few expectations, they could ride these bumps out.

So, if the Yanks want to trade Guzman and Milton for Knobby - do it. Because there's no way Milton gets to go through a whole rookie season in NY with an ERA of 5.64 and still get 32 starts. Ditto on Guzman - - 420 ABs as a rookie with a .267/.276 OBA/SLG%. When was the last time the Yanks could afford to give someone producing at that level a regular job?

[BuzzBuzzard]

I can accept that, but it is not the only explanantion. How would you explain the Padres, and to a lesser extent the Giants, as being the next closest to the Mets.

[NetShrine]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
I can accept that, but it is not the only explanantion. How would you explain the Padres, and to a lesser extent the Giants, as being the next closest to the Mets.

I don't think they are close - going 10 for 40 and 10 for 60 are two different rates.