Smed's College Hoops Power Ratings

SmedIndy · 02-04-2003, 10:40 AM

OK - joining Massey, Sagarin, collegeRPI, and dozens others, I offer my .02.

My algorithm is simple - I use some of the published power ratings, the Sagarin SOS, and D-1 record, and stir it all together for my list of 1-327.

I think traditional power ratings hurt mid-majors unfairly, and mine bring them up to where they probably should be.

I use this to forecast the NCAA, and more importantly, see who was unfairly left out. And also for giggles.

It may surprise that the moribund Arkansas-Pine Bluff team isn't last. They are not due to their unusually high SOS for a SWAC team.

Top 10 (data as of Sunday night):

1. Arizona
2. Louisville
3. Notre Dame
4. Kentucky
5. Florida
6. Texas
7. Oklahoma State
8. Duke
9. Oklahoma
10. Marquette

Those in danger of unfairly going home - Illinois - Chicago, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Central Michigan, Wyoming.

Bottom 10 -

327. Maryland - Eastern Shore
326. Savannah State
325. Columbia
324. North Carolina A & T
323. Army
322. Southern
321. Nicholls State
320. Campbell
319. Morgan State
318. New Hampshire

sweaver · 02-04-2003, 11:24 AM

I'd love to see the entire list.....that would soak up some bandwidth. You like 'zona to go all the way?

SmedIndy · 02-04-2003, 12:34 PM

Right now Arizona or Kentucky....and that pains me to say that being a Hoosier.

I may add one other factor to the formula. I perenially tweek it, but if it adds too much time to compile it I may leave it be.

Skip · 02-04-2003, 05:07 PM

I'm trying to figure this out ... just what state is the best??

FWIW - I like AZ, FL, or KY at the end. LouKy is playing over their heads, though its fun as heck.

JamesI · 02-04-2003, 05:18 PM

As long as Kentucky doesn't win it all, I don't care.

LeGrandOrange · 02-06-2003, 09:41 AM

I never thought I'd see the day where Louisville was a legitimate National Power again. Adolph Rupp would---wait that's the wrong school--Denny Crum would be proud.

Hey Smed, where's Gonzaga in your rankings? Top 10 they ain't but I was wondering where you put them.

SmedIndy · 02-06-2003, 07:12 PM

29th.

Will do this most Mondays, until it's time for Conference Tourneys. Then it's every day!

pwdennis · 02-07-2003, 08:49 AM

Where is Stetson in your rankings. I would have figured them near the very bottom

SmedIndy · 02-07-2003, 09:00 AM

They are in the 300 range. I have that at my home computer - but they're part of the non-elite.

SmedIndy · 02-17-2003, 04:30 PM

Latest top 10:

1. Kentucky
2. Louisville
3. Arizona
4. Florida
5. Texas
6. Notre Dame
7. Marquette
8. Wake Forest
9. Kansas
10. Duke

Bottom 10:

327. NC A & T
326. MD - Eastern Shore
325. Savannah State
324. Columbia
323. Southern U.
322. Army
321. Morgan State
320. Nicholls State
319. Lipscomb
318. Campbell

SmedIndy · 02-17-2003, 04:42 PM

NCAA Projections (the way they probably should be)

1. Kentucky, Louisville, Arizona, Texas
2. Florida, Notre Dame, Marquette, Wake Forest
3. Kansas, Duke, Oklahoma, Dayton
4. Oklahoma State, St. Joseph's, California, Syracuse
5. Xavier, Utah, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh
6. Mississippi State, Stanford, Purdue, Illinois
7. Maryland, BYU, Georgia, Tennessee
8. Missouri, Arizona State, Creighton, Gonzaga
9. Oregon, Cincinnati, Alabama, Auburn
10. Kent State, Butler, Memphis, Indiana
11. Texas Tech, U. Conn, Central Michigan, Michigan State
12. Southern Illinois, DePaul, Colorado, Weber State
13. Fresno State, Manhattan, Penn, La-Lafayette
14. Troy State, NC Wilmington, Charleston, Holy Cross
15. Sam Houston State, Utah State, Valpo, Austin Peay
16. Texas Southern, Wagner, Boston U.
Play In - S. Carolina State vs. Winthrop

On the cusp: UNLV, Western Michigan, Wyoming, Rhode Island, Villanova, Virginia, Minnesota, Boston College, NC State

Craig S. · 02-18-2003, 11:12 AM

Why does Dayton get a 3, whil Xavier only rates a 5?

SmedIndy · 02-18-2003, 11:43 AM

Dayton would win the AQ in my scenario- and I think they'd have to beat X in the semi's of the A-10 tourney. That and I think the committee would put Syracuse and Cal ahead of a semi-final loser in the A-10 tourney.

X is 16th in my power ratings currently.

02-04-2003, 10:40 AM	#1
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	Smed's College Hoops Power Ratings OK - joining Massey, Sagarin, collegeRPI, and dozens others, I offer my .02. My algorithm is simple - I use some of the published power ratings, the Sagarin SOS, and D-1 record, and stir it all together for my list of 1-327. I think traditional power ratings hurt mid-majors unfairly, and mine bring them up to where they probably should be. I use this to forecast the NCAA, and more importantly, see who was unfairly left out. And also for giggles. It may surprise that the moribund Arkansas-Pine Bluff team isn't last. They are not due to their unusually high SOS for a SWAC team. Top 10 (data as of Sunday night): 1. Arizona 2. Louisville 3. Notre Dame 4. Kentucky 5. Florida 6. Texas 7. Oklahoma State 8. Duke 9. Oklahoma 10. Marquette Those in danger of unfairly going home - Illinois - Chicago, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Central Michigan, Wyoming. Bottom 10 - 327. Maryland - Eastern Shore 326. Savannah State 325. Columbia 324. North Carolina A & T 323. Army 322. Southern 321. Nicholls State 320. Campbell 319. Morgan State 318. New Hampshire

02-07-2003, 08:49 AM	#8
pwdennis NetShrine All-Century Team Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Winter Springs, FL Posts: 2,503	Where is Stetson in your rankings. I would have figured them near the very bottom __________________ "I would submit that if the world survives for a million years, perhaps its finest hour may be that in the last half of the 20th century, when the power to blow up the world rested in the hands of a few men in two very unsophisticated and suspicious countries, we didn't do it, and one American, Richard Nixon, moved the cold war away from permanent confrontation toward victory. How could any wrong that he did compare with that?" - John Sears

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02-04-2003, 11:24 AM	#2
sweaver Netshrine Cleanup Hitter Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: The Mountain State Posts: 8,883	I'd love to see the entire list.....that would soak up some bandwidth. You like 'zona to go all the way?

02-04-2003, 12:34 PM	#3
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	Right now Arizona or Kentucky....and that pains me to say that being a Hoosier. I may add one other factor to the formula. I perenially tweek it, but if it adds too much time to compile it I may leave it be.

02-04-2003, 05:07 PM	#4
Skip NetShrine Vagabond Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Louisville Posts: 7,866	I'm trying to figure this out ... just what state is the best?? FWIW - I like AZ, FL, or KY at the end. LouKy is playing over their heads, though its fun as heck.

02-04-2003, 05:18 PM	#5
JamesI Netshrine Vacuum Cleaner Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Potsdam, N.Y. Posts: 3,723	As long as Kentucky doesn't win it all, I don't care.

02-06-2003, 09:41 AM	#6
LeGrandOrange Membership Suspended 4/11/04 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Tacoma, WA Posts: 3,783	I never thought I'd see the day where Louisville was a legitimate National Power again. Adolph Rupp would---wait that's the wrong school--Denny Crum would be proud. Hey Smed, where's Gonzaga in your rankings? Top 10 they ain't but I was wondering where you put them.

02-06-2003, 07:12 PM	#7
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	29th. Will do this most Mondays, until it's time for Conference Tourneys. Then it's every day!

02-07-2003, 09:00 AM	#9
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	They are in the 300 range. I have that at my home computer - but they're part of the non-elite.

02-17-2003, 04:30 PM	#10
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	Latest top 10: 1. Kentucky 2. Louisville 3. Arizona 4. Florida 5. Texas 6. Notre Dame 7. Marquette 8. Wake Forest 9. Kansas 10. Duke Bottom 10: 327. NC A & T 326. MD - Eastern Shore 325. Savannah State 324. Columbia 323. Southern U. 322. Army 321. Morgan State 320. Nicholls State 319. Lipscomb 318. Campbell

02-17-2003, 04:42 PM	#11
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	NCAA Projections (the way they probably should be) 1. Kentucky, Louisville, Arizona, Texas 2. Florida, Notre Dame, Marquette, Wake Forest 3. Kansas, Duke, Oklahoma, Dayton 4. Oklahoma State, St. Joseph's, California, Syracuse 5. Xavier, Utah, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh 6. Mississippi State, Stanford, Purdue, Illinois 7. Maryland, BYU, Georgia, Tennessee 8. Missouri, Arizona State, Creighton, Gonzaga 9. Oregon, Cincinnati, Alabama, Auburn 10. Kent State, Butler, Memphis, Indiana 11. Texas Tech, U. Conn, Central Michigan, Michigan State 12. Southern Illinois, DePaul, Colorado, Weber State 13. Fresno State, Manhattan, Penn, La-Lafayette 14. Troy State, NC Wilmington, Charleston, Holy Cross 15. Sam Houston State, Utah State, Valpo, Austin Peay 16. Texas Southern, Wagner, Boston U. Play In - S. Carolina State vs. Winthrop On the cusp: UNLV, Western Michigan, Wyoming, Rhode Island, Villanova, Virginia, Minnesota, Boston College, NC State

02-18-2003, 11:12 AM	#12
Craig S. Guest Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Ohio Posts: 6,330	Why does Dayton get a 3, whil Xavier only rates a 5?

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02-18-2003, 11:43 AM	#13
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	Dayton would win the AQ in my scenario- and I think they'd have to beat X in the semi's of the A-10 tourney. That and I think the committee would put Syracuse and Cal ahead of a semi-final loser in the A-10 tourney. X is 16th in my power ratings currently.