Are the White Sox Aiming Low?

[sweaver]

The thing is, the White Sox didn't get a Bruce Bochte or a Dave Kingman, they got Bartolo Colon, regarded as a top pitcher and winner of 20 games last year. The talent they gave up to get him was not overwhelming: a lefty hitter they weren't going to use much, a couple of decent relievers, and a minor league pitcher of some promise but no overwhelming pedigree. There is some gamble here, but it's one I'd make.

[gyb13]

also, it's a lot easier to stay ahead of four teams than it is to stay ahead of six teams.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by Fuzzy Bear
The Royals won two flukey pennants. The irony of the Royals is that their World Champion is the WORST team of their division winners, and their 1980 pennant team is their second-worst team, IMO.

A correction: The 1985 World Champion Royals are their 2nd worst division champion, and the 1980 AL pennant-winning Royals are their 3rd weakest division champion.

The 1984 Royals were, by far, the weakest division champion the franchise has fielded. Given that the 1973 Mets and the 1987 Twins won pennants, and given that the 1984 Royals gave up more runs than they scored, I rate them the weakest division champion for the entire two-division league era of 1969-93.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by satchel
I think there's nothing wrong with a "win now" strategy, even if it is "win a weak division now" - it depends what you do down the road. As poorme has argued, more wins and a playoff appearance now means more fan interest, which means more revenue. If that revenue is invested smartly, then a short term "win a weak division now" approach can be leveraged into building long-term success.

The danger comes when the club that has won a weak division but experienced an early playoff exit thinks that it can "plug a few holes" rather than building for the future. Any extra revenue generated by a winning season has to be invested with discipline.

To do so obviously takes a great deal of baseball and negotiating skill on the part of the front office, and patience on the part of both the office and the fans.

Perhaps this is the crux of the issue. I must also admit that part of my reasoning is that I am not all that impressed with Bartolo Colon, in that overweight pitchers generally have poor records of maintaining success, particularly after a career year. Colon's weight problems appear to be chronic, and will probably worsen from year to year. I suppose this is another issue.

I also agree that the original premise of Bill James' article may not be as valid today as when it was written due to divisional realignment and the addition of Wild Cards. The winner of the WCS (Wild Card Series) is now champion of all! (I just couldn't help myself!)

You raise several interesting points re CWS. Can they beat Twins, win ALC? Yes. If you look at '02 Runs Differential, both teams shd've won about 87 games, yet the margin was a huge 13.5 games. There's a considerable "luck factor" in that, and it tends to even out following year.

Now, CWS has its ace plus Buehrle, plus Koch as stopper, and enough decent p'ing elsewhere. I believe the key for them is up the middle. At SS, the ? w/Valentin is always whether his good H makes up for his poor D. At 2B and C, youth will get a chance in D Jimenez and M Olivo (S Alomar as ins.). That's a lot of ifs at core pos's. Nevertheless, we all know this is a hugely productive offense.

The Twins lost D. Ortiz due to $$ constraints. Same with an old but pretty good set-up reliever, M. Jackson. It's added virtually nothing. It can look forward to its core players getting even better, as most move from early to mid career primes. It also can lk fwd to starting pitching staying a bit healthier, plus a good, young one--J. Santana--playing a greater role.

I favor CWS over Twins by 2-3 games, but it's important that CWS make an early statement in head-to-head play cuz it was lopsided & embarrassing last yr.

Agree completely that there's a big diff. between a team good enough to win mediocre div. versus go all the way. I assume Reinsdorf wdn't step out of character and load up at 7/31 trade deadline. he's more prone to shedding than spending/adding.

But sometimes it's too easy to blame management. Frank "Big Skirt" Thomas is a clubhouse albatross; no one respects him because he's been a selfish, lazy whiner. As great as his '90s stats look, he could've been so much more. Really hurt this organization in several ways, and they're still stuck with him.

[sweaver]

I'll take issue with two of your points, ourtime.

Valentin is not a poor defensive SS. He is a good shortstop with good range, but he makes a fairly high number of errors. Since errors is all most people know about defense, they go nuts when somebody is making 25 of them. Valentin is not as good as Clayton defensively, but the bat will more than make up the difference.

Also, it is hard to see how Frank Thomas "could have done more" in the 1990s. Because he has declined some recently, we tend to forget just how terrific he was. Even with a low batting average, he was still a fine hitter last year. He's not the best hitter in the league anymore, but he is still a key part of the lineup.

Glad you take issue...or this wd be a boring place!!!

Actually, I agree w/you on J. Valentin. CWS won '00 div. w/him at SS. Not soft hands, but better-than-avg. range factor.

F. Thomas had Hall of Fame talent, a hitter with power-avg combination talent just a tad below T. Williams. From '91 thru '97, his OPS was 1.068. He's dipped to .861, .885, 1.061 (nice comeback yr.), .757 (20-game inj. yr.), .833 since then.

He's never worked very hard at keeping his body in top shape. He's 6-5 but weighs a butt/thigh-heavy 275.

He decided a long time ago that he'd rather be a close-to-full-time DH, even though his hitting stats at the time were better when he played 1B. This was strange coming from a guy so obsessively stat-conscious. It certainly took away lineup flexibility from his managers. AL skippers like to slip people in and out of the DH slot.

Being from the Chicago area, I can tell you most assuredly that he has a pronounced tendency of putting his foot in his mouth to the media. He repeatedly has complained about his contract status, throughout the years he was making 10 mil plus per yr., as a DH. His timing frequently has been lousy, such as when he was doing poorly or when his younger teammates needed a lift instead of selfish rantings.

Last year, he was in an extended slump and got briefly benched. He "protested" by showing up late for pre-game. Konerko and other mates blasted him. That was an important transitional point. Previous to this, his very young teammates would shut up publicly. Now they were a bit older and expressing the disdain they'd always felt toward Frank.

So, if you believe in "intangibles", he is not the good veteran leader he could be, not popular, not seen as a team player, overly concerned with his own welfare. I'm putting all of this mildly.

Great players generally perform at top-tier performance levels well into their mid to late 30s. Frank clearly has tapered off, substantially so. Many attribute that to reducing himself to a one-dimensional DH with body and attitude that both coulda/shoulda been better.

You believe he's still a productive, key hitter in the lineup. Maybe. He probably projects to an .865 OPS in '03, which is good, but let's talk context. I think his new, revised contract pays him 5.5 mil. for '03. Is he worth that, given decent OPS for strictly DH...and very lousy "intangibles"?

It's hard for me to dispassionately objective on the subject of Frank Thomas. I'm in the camp that feels he was given a rare gift and under-achieved relative to that enormous talent. And while he was cheating his own potential, he's bummed out teammates and fans along the way.

You may be in the camp of fans that salutes him for what he's accomplished (.314 BA, 376 HR, 1285 RBI). That's fine. Obviously, I'm in the other camp, believing he coulda done much more. I saw HOF talent early on, but I don't think he's gonna make it, and I blame no one but him.

[sweaver]

It's hard to say that Big Frank could have performed any better on the field 1991-97. If that's what you are saying, I disagree. That's as good a 7-year run with the bat anyone this side of Babe Ruth has ever had.

If you want to say he let himself get out of shape, was not selfless enough, and has erred in his public statements, I'd have to agree with you. Last year, though, he was effective with the bat, just not up to his own standards from that earlier run as well as 2000.

Now, he can go two ways. Humbled by the public chastising of his teammates, and the failure to secure a better contract offer while allowed to shop, he could reapply himself, and become more of a team player. Or, he could pout and sulk, and be a "clubhouse cancer."

The path he chooses will likely determine whether he becomes a Hall of Famer.

But this is a White Sox thread, not a Frank Thomas thread. The Sox have a real shot at the division this year, especially if Thomas has a good year.

[Husier]

I like the potential of the Sox's two new infielders, Crede at 3B and Jimenez at 2B ... both could have breakout years ... the Sox always resisted the urge to rush Crede, despite the fact some in the Chicago media questioned their handling of him ... it looks now as if they made the right decision.

I've always wondered how much Jimenez's development was set back by his career-threatening car crash several years ago ... he may just now be ready to emerge as a solid player.

If the Sox can find a CF, their starting nine could be better than the Twins.

[gyb13]

Originally posted by Husier
If the Sox can find a CF, their starting nine could be better than the Twins.

2002 runs scored
Chicago 856
Minnesota 768

no question CHI offense was better. in defense, you can play with a bunch of metrics, none of which are that much better than the others, but here are a few:

Fielding %: MIN .987 CHW .984
Range Factor: CHW 37.1 MIN 35.9
Zone Rating: CHW .867 MIN .857
Defensive Efficiency: CHW .721 MIN .714

surprising, no? but the chisox defense was apparently as good as minny's, if not better...

CHW lost Durham (replace w/ Jimenez), MIN lost Ortiz (replace w/ Cuddyer or Kielty). That narrows the gap a little, but the ChiSox starting nine are already (and have been) better than MIN.

[Husier]

You're right, gyb13 ... I was simply comparing them position by position ... I see the Twins better at four spots (C, 3B, LF, CF) and the White Sox better at four (DH, 1B, 2B, RF) by wider margins ... if the Twins have the '01 Guzman back, I'll take him ...