Are the White Sox Aiming Low?

[Fuzzy Bear]

The White Sox have taken a gamble, giving up three players for Bartolo Colon, who has one year to go.

Despite some name players, the White Sox are NOT a very good team. They ARE about a .500 team, give or take a game, and they DID make a too-little-too-late run against the Twins last year, after falling back considerably.

One strategy the White Sox could take is to build a farm system that would yield real talent, and build a really good team, one that could contend for it all, year in and year out. This would be aided by the retirement of Frank Thomas, who is just another player now, but who eats a whole lotta dough on payday.

The other strategy, which the Colon deal reflects, is the strategy of "win, now". There's a lot to be said for that; the ChiSox have been suffering for a long time. It's been 43 years since their last pennant; it's been 35 years since they regularly contended for the pennant.

The problem with the "win, now" strategy is its limits. The ChiSox aren't about to go out on a FA frenzy, a la Philadelphia. What they are trying to do is to do just enough to win their division, which is THE WEAKEST DIVISION IN THE AL.

If you're good enough to best the Twins, with, say, 90 wins, and everyone else is a loser, what are your chances in the playoffs, short of getting lucky?

Teams that really hope to contend need to develop strategies designed to beat the YANKEES, not the Twins. The YANKEES are going to be there at the end.

Maybe the ChiSox hope to be the new Anaheim Angels, getting hot at the right time, overcoming more talented teams. They may do just that.

However, I doubt that the Colon trade signals a new, wiser era of baseball management on the South Side. It appears to be strategy that is designed to appear to fans as "going for it all", when it is really nothing more than "Let's win our weak division and hope for good luck."

Am I seeing this correctly? (I expect feedback from poorme on this one!)

[sweaver]

When you have a team that can contend, like the Chisox do, you should go for it. To do less cheats the fans. Now, I am no fan of Kenny Williams, and think he tends to give away the farm to get "proven" players, but I won't fault his strategy here. He has a team that can win the division, and he is trying to give them the best chance possible.

[Rajah]

If the White Sox can contend, and as I've said elsewhere, I think they can, this is a great trade. If they don't have a legit shot in July, assuming Colon is pitching well and is healthy, he should bring more in return than was given up from a team desparate to get a top of the rotation starter for the stretch run.

My biggest worry, if I were a Sox fan (and I'm not) is Reinsdorf's history with top pitchers. He does not resign them. Overall, this can be a good strategy, especially if your managerial strategy is to make a guy pitch till his arm falls off (see Jack McDowell, Alex Fernandez). So will the Sox even attempt to resign him if he does lead them down the golden brick road to the ALCS or more?

[gyb13]

I disagree, Fuzz. In a strong division, you do have to think more long-term to find the right balance between your prospects and your major league ballclub, to try to set yourself in a position to make runs when your top players are peaking together. In a weak division, though, you can afford to play to beat the Twins. Winning will bring more fans to the park, which in turn will allow the payroll to increase.
As for the playoffs, it's a crapshoot. Two years ago, it took two dominating starters to win a bunch of pitching duels. Last year, it took a bunch of average-to-good players slapping the ball to win a bunch of high-scoring games.

[Max Power]

Note - this thread moved from
Active Player News, Analysis & Commentary
to Hot Baseball Chatter

The Hot Baseball Chatter forum is for covering present day baseball, including things in the news - both on and off the field

The Active Player News, Analysis & Commentary forum is for threads on a specific player this season - either news or commentary.

[clemente21]

In any other division, I would say that the White Sox are making a mistake. But with Detroit, KC, and Cleveland in various states of disrepair, and an unbalanced schedule, it makes sense. If they make the playoffs, it's because either:

a) Frank Thomas shakes off whatever funk he's been in and becomes the insane early 90s Frank, with Garland-Ordonez-Konerko-Valentin generating enough runs to win for their #4/#5 starters by sheer force; or

b) Garland and/or Rauch pitch like they're A's starters instead of Devil Ray starters, and they win because they have more and better starters than the Twins.

If that happens, having two aces is the way to go. If not, Colon and Carlos Lee will be gone by the trading deadline.

[poorme]

i don't really know where to go with this. problem is the sox are not going to spend more than they take in. in years past, before the salary structure got way out of whack, they spent a lot of money. then the 94 strike happened, and for a variety of reasons, attendance went in the tank and reinsdorf cut way back on spending.

now, to paint the sox as an inept organization is false. they've finished either 1,2,3 in a (weak) division for 13 years straight. at least that shows they are "reasonably" competitive. what is so frustrating is that they had the talent there, however, if they also had $90-$100-$150 million to spend, they would have been in position to compete for a championship.

now, the first order of business is to become a legit playoff team, increase attendance, increase revenues, so that they can afford to keep the stars they have and perhaps add more of them.

the sox have a loooong way to go to rebuild their fanbase in Chicago, and this movement is a statement that says, "we want to win." That's a statement that had to be made.

[KCBOOMER]

Today's (1/15) column at Baseball Prospectus discusses this trade and gives high praise to Kenny Williams for this deal.

[poorme]

just one nit to pick. in the bp article Biddle is referred to as a soft-tosser. he's not. he goes 90-94 with excellent movement. i hate to see him go.

Chris Kahrl of baseballprospectus.com was also on WSCR this morning and praised the deal also. I think it was a good deal, the White Sox did not give up a whole lot and will likely get back at least as much if they deal Colon mid-season. I see them contending in the Central. Once you get in the playoffs, anything can happen.

Personally, I think White Sox fans will start to come out to Comiskey if the White Sox are in it. They have a lot of young stars that people are taking notice of and who overshadow Frank Thomas, plus the All Star game is at Comiskey this year. Hopefully that should generate some interest on the South Side.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by sweaver
When you have a team that can contend, like the Chisox do, you should go for it.

One of the "inspirations" for starting this thread was an old Bill James article in a Baseball Abstract (I think it was 1985) entitled "A Division in the Mire". The focus of the article was on the AL West Division which was, at that time, the weakest division in baseball, where 90 wins was enough to win it, and the division generally paled in comparision to the then-mighty AL East.

James pointed out that many of the teams orchestrated strategies to enable them to win 90 games or so, in that 90 wins would take the division. Therefore, the AL West teams were more likely to sign the Cliff Johnsons and Dave Kingmans and Bruce Bochte's because one of these guys might put them over the top. (The division was so weak that in 1984 the Royals were the only team with a winning record 84-78, despite scoring fewer runs that thev allowed. California and Minnesota were tied for 2nd place at 81-81.)

A team could build to win that division, but it wouldn't be a strategy that would turn that team into a long-term winner, said James. How right was he?

The AL West from 1980-91 produced two teams that built from the ground, up (A's and Twins). The Twins won two unexpected World Championships, but were not regular contenders. The A's won three straight pennants.

The other teams won very little. The Royals won two flukey pennants. The irony of the Royals is that their World Champion is the WORST team of their division winners, and their 1980 pennant team is their second-worst team, IMO. Other teams contended for the division crown, but no other team won a pennant. None of these teams really stayed a consistent winner year in and year out, although the A's came close.

Bill James appears to say, in my opinion, that when your goal is to win a mediocre division, you develop a mediocre organization. I know ChiSox fans clamor to win the division, because they get to go to the playoffs, and then anything can happen. I don't want to be the Grinch who stole spring training here; Pale Hose fans are a long-suffering group who deserve better than they've received. Times have changed since that article, and now we have smaller divisions and wild-cards, so not everything applies as it once did.

I guess I am posting this because the White Sox, who play in Chicago, America's 2nd largest city, ought to be a leader in the AL. The big city teams ought to contend; they ought to be leading the way in organizational strength. The ChiSox are not doing that, sad to say. I am wondering if the Colon trade is another example of playing for 90 wins, rather than building a real organization.

On the other hand, I realize the need for any team to win, and win in the present sense. The ChiSox need a winning season now, so perhaps some of my thinking doesn't really apply.

[Husier]

I understand your point, fuzzy, except the Sox didn't really take any long-term risks with this deal. Colon still projects to have more longevity than anyone else in the deal ... if he has a big year, the Sox win and can re-sign him to a reasonable contract. Unless he gets hurt, the Sox are in a high-upside, low-downside situation.

[cubfan33]

Winning is all that matters and if you have a chance to win now, that's what you do. World Series titles are few and far between for most teams. The White Sox have one valid challenger in their division so they're pushed to the top and Colon, ostensibly, gives them enough pitching to push past the Twins and compete with the A's.

Where the White Sox win on this deal is making a move to win the division doesn't hurt the future. Even if Colon is gone next year, they gave up nothing that isn't eminently replaceable. Does this put them on a level with the A's and Yankees? Nope, but then again, neither were the Angels and we all know what happened there.

Sometimes luck beats talent.

[poorme]

Originally posted by Fuzzy Bear
I guess I am posting this because the White Sox, who play in Chicago, America's 2nd largest city, ought to be a leader in the AL. The big city teams ought to contend; they ought to be leading the way in organizational strength. The ChiSox are not doing that, sad to say. I am wondering if the Colon trade is another example of playing for 90 wins, rather than building a real organization.

fuzz, i agree with your point. this team is NOT going to compete for a championship. reinsdorf and williams know that. what they are trying to do is build a good product for the fans and increase revenue. if some miracle happens and they are able to increase attendance to where it was in the early 90s (2.7-2.9 million) then you're in business and the team can afford to bring payroll up to $80-$90 million. fat chance, but you have to give it a shot.

[satchel]

Fuzzy, this is a good insightful discussion. Thanks for starting it.

I think there's nothing wrong with a "win now" strategy, even if it is "win a weak division now" - it depends what you do down the road. As poorme has argued, more wins and a playoff appearance now means more fan interest, which means more revenue. If that revenue is invested smartly, then a short term "win a weak division now" approach can be leveraged into building long-term success.

The danger comes when the club that has won a weak division but experienced an early playoff exit thinks that it can "plug a few holes" rather than building for the future. Any extra revenue generated by a winning season has to be invested with discipline.

To do so obviously takes a great deal of baseball and negotiating skill on the part of the front office, and patience on the part of both the office and the fans.