Braves-Marlins Trade - Page 2

Fatwater Fewl · 11-18-2002, 12:13 AM

Should turn out to be a good deal for the Braves. I predict Hampton will bounce back well -- 13 -15 wins as the team stands now; he might give 20 a run if they fill the holes at first, second and third.

11-18-2002, 09:23 AM

The more I think about this deal, the more I'm perplexed. The only benefit to the Braves that I see with this deal is that they don't have to pay Hampton a nickel in years 4, 5 and 6 of his remaining contract. While that would come out to an average of just under $6 million per year (which could be a super bargain if Hampton returns to his pre-Colorado form), from my limited vantage point, it doesn't help much with the next three years.

I thought the Braves were trying to shed payroll, which is why they weren't sure if they could keep Maddux and Glavine. If I'm not mistaken, I think they've already committed $56 million next year to six players. With Hampton, that now makes $67 million. Maddux's agent Scott Boras has made it clear that Maddux will not take a "hometown discount" to stay with the Braves. Maddux made over $13 million last year. I'm guessing he's not going to take a pay cut. Best case, let's assume he'd be willing to pitch for the Braves at the same salary he made last year. The Braves' payroll would then be $80 million for 8 players. My guess is that they'd be hardpressed to reduce their payroll much from last year when the payroll was somewhere in the $90 - $92 million range. So does the Hampton deal mean the Braves might not keep Maddux as well as Glavine?

Again, to me it looks like the "sugar" in the Hampton deal is that the Braves free up a lot of cash starting with year #4. Wouldn't they have been able to free up a lot of cash otherwise? Three years from now, in the offseason between year #3 and year #4, Glavine and Maddux will be 39 and Smoltz will be 38. At that point, I'm sure that none of the three, certainly not Glavine and Maddux, will be commanding top $ and that no one would be looking for a multi-year deal. I'm even wondering if Maddux will still be in the game at that point. At his present rate, he should reach 300 wins in two more seasons. While he's not about numbers, one would have to wonder what he would have to play for after that. Personally, if I were looking into the future at years 4, 5 and 6, I would look at other pitchers, namely Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. Three years from now, Hampton will be 33, Hudson 30, Mulder 28 and Zito 27. If I'm not mistaken, players are allowed to become free agents after six years. If that's the case, Hudson will be a free agent after the 2004 season while Mulder and Zito would be free agents after the 2005 season.

As for the near future, I would like to think the Braves could have kept Glavine for 3 years for much less money. In the next three years, the Braves will pay Hampton $35.5 million. So far, Glavine has been gotten offers of about $27 million and $31 million for 3 years. I could be wrong, but my hunch was that Glavine would have signed for less if the Braves even gave him a multi-year deal. At this point, money isn't the issue so much as security and stability for his family. Glavine knows he doesn't have too many years left in the game and unless he's been stupid with his money, he should be financially set. Also, I believe his wife is from Atlanta and obviously Atlanta is the only home his kids have known. Why would he want to uproot them for a few years? The answer is simply if the Braves don't want his services, which it's clear they don't.

One other thing - I realize Coors Field is a bad place for a pitcher. Of all the pitchers who pitched for Colorado, I thought Hampton would be the best guy. Kile was a no-brainer. Kile's trademark was his big curve ball, which obviously wasn't going to break as much in the thin air. Neagle was a no-brainer, too. Before going to Colorado, he lived on fly ball outs. Obviously, more of those fly balls were going to leave the yard at Coors Field. Hampton, however, is a sinker ball pitcher who lives on ground ball outs. Does the thin air affect his sinker balls that much?

TimmyB · 11-18-2002, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sopalt
Maddux's agent Scott Boras has made it clear that Maddux will not take a "hometown discount" to stay with the Braves. Maddux made over $13 million last year. I'm guessing he's not going to take a pay cut.

This deal has me scratching my head. As for Boras' quote -- I wonder how may teams have the cash/desire to sign any guy (even Maddux) for this kind of money? This may be a negotiating ploy on the part of all the teams -- but the buzz out of the GM meetings is no buzz at all.

Back to this deal -- I think Atlanta's hoping Hampton will pull a post-Coors Kile, but the numbers don't really point to it. There is the intangible, which is Hampton's head -- did Coors Lite (and/or the Rockies' general state of hopelessness) get into his head?

Certainly playing in Atlanta will give the guy (or, at least, should give the guy) confidence in the team around him. However, if the numbers are the true measure of the pitcher, Mazzone has his work cut out for him.

Kudos to Colorado for unloading (any part of) a contract that I thought was un-unloadable.

sweaver · 11-18-2002, 11:50 AM

Any pitch that spins and breaks, will break less in thinner air. That's why it's more difficult for everyone to pitch in Coors.

Hampton will need about half a season to get his head screwed on straight, then he will be successful. Spooneybarger is a good arm, but it's a good gamble for the Braves, given that Hampton is 30 as opposed to Glavine at 37 when the season starts.

KCBOOMER · 11-18-2002, 11:56 AM

The Braves are taking a calculated risk here. Their lifeblood for a decade has been starting pitching. Maddux and Glavine made $21.7M in 2002. Deducting $6M for Hampton leaves $15.7M.

They have no shot at Maddux (remember Scott Boras is his agent) so they have plenty of monet to re-sign Glavine and maybe even a hitter.

The key to me is to not overpay for Glavine (or Maddux should he decide to overrule Boras). These guys have at most 50 victories apiece left in the tank. How much is that worth per year?

SmedIndy · 11-18-2002, 03:55 PM

Probably a win / win / win three way trade if there ever was one.

pwdennis · 11-18-2002, 06:21 PM

Let's see what happens - I think when Hampton gets his head on straight he will return to his prior form. Moreover, if he can't pitch maybe they can use him at 1B - his offensive output couldn't help but be better than what they've gotten the position the last few seasons !!

JamesI · 11-18-2002, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by pwdennis
Let's see what happens - I think when Hampton gets his head on stright he will return to his prior form. Moreover, if he can't pitch maybe they can use him at 1B - his offensive output coulden't help but be better than what they've gotten the last few seasons !!

I would expect he'd be a better producing 1st baseman than pitcher now!

Fuzzy Bear · 11-18-2002, 07:41 PM

I never like it when a team dumps a young talent like Spooneybarger, whose future is ahead of him. The Royals of the 1970s contended by keeping the Spooneybargers of that era; they were the hungry players with something to prove.

On the other hand, Hampton, while a current head case, may straighten up under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone.

I should, in fairness to the Braves, point out that they have given up young pitchers in trade before who were well regarded (Pete Smith, Kent Mercker, Derek Lilliquist). The Braves DO seem to be able to distinguish their Grade A-B prospects from their Grade C-D prospects; at least they have in the past, and they have the same regime. Not every team can say that.

Duque · 11-18-2002, 09:24 PM

Here's the question I always ask in a 3-team trade - would the Marlins have traded Wilson, Johnson, et al. for Spooneybarger?

11-18-2002, 10:11 PM

Mea Culpa? (My mistake)

Just saw a report on Yahoo that preliminary reports were erroneously backwards. The Yahoo report claims that the Braves will owe Hampton only $5.5 million over the next three years and then they'll pay dearly for the next three years after that. Can anyone confirm that? If that's the case, this makes more sense. The Braves would then have some room to sign either Glavine or Maddux. If they aren't so keen on dropping their payroll over the next three years, they might (though very improbable) be able to keep both Maddux and Glavine. If they did keep both Maddux and Glavine, and Hampton returns somewhat to his pre-Colorado form, that could be one heckuva rotation: Maddux, Glavine, Millwood, Hampton and Moss.

So if I was mistaken, please forgive the strong remarks in earlier posts.

WiredTiger · 11-19-2002, 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sopalt
Mea Culpa? (My mistake)

Just saw a report on Yahoo that preliminary reports were erroneously backwards. The Yahoo report claims that the Braves will owe Hampton only $5.5 million over the next three years and then they'll pay dearly for the next three years after that. Can anyone confirm that?

ESPN has this report on the story that confirms your numbers.http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2002/1118/1462593.html

It's looking like it makes even more sense for the Braves now. They deferred all of that money that they have to pay him until three years from now.

shortstop · 11-19-2002, 08:42 AM

This article in the NYTimes details the money breakdown a bit further:

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/19/sp...ll/19BASE.html

excerpt:

"... Hampton, a 30-year-old left-hander, will cost the Braves less than the average major league salary the next three years: $2 million in 2003 and in '04, and $1.5 million in '05. The Marlins will pay the Braves $9 million, $10 million and $11 million in those seasons. The Marlins' payments will be offset by the money they will receive from the Rockies: $2 million in each of the next two years and $2.5 million in the third year.

The Braves will pay Hampton's entire salary the final three years, a total of $43 million, meaning they will pay $48.5 million for six years, a steal if Hampton reverts to his pre-Coors Field form...."

satchel · 11-19-2002, 09:26 AM

That is really interesting. The Braves may have pulled off a real coup here, especially if they keep one of Maddux and Glavine to go along with Hampton.

Spooneybarger has upside, but you have to give value to get value. 'course, it remains to be seen whether Hampton will have value. My gut tells me that he'll settle down in half a season and become a very good pitcher again.

TimmyB · 11-19-2002, 09:46 AM

The corrected numbers make this deal even more interesting.

(Also, forget my "kudos" to Colorado -- I'm sure every other team with a Hampton-esque player under contract must shudder at the amount they had to eat to move him).

The Boston Globe had a sentence or two this morning saying the Braves are making out so well on this they could resign Glavine AND Maddux. Time will tell on this part.

So, I guess I'll leave it at: Kudos for sea-level!

11-18-2002, 11:56 AM	#20
KCBOOMER NetShrine All-Century Team Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Home of the T-Bones Posts: 11,116	The Braves are taking a calculated risk here. Their lifeblood for a decade has been starting pitching. Maddux and Glavine made $21.7M in 2002. Deducting $6M for Hampton leaves $15.7M. They have no shot at Maddux (remember Scott Boras is his agent) so they have plenty of monet to re-sign Glavine and maybe even a hitter. The key to me is to not overpay for Glavine (or Maddux should he decide to overrule Boras). These guys have at most 50 victories apiece left in the tank. How much is that worth per year? __________________ KCBOOMER *Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball*

11-18-2002, 06:21 PM	#22
pwdennis NetShrine All-Century Team Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Winter Springs, FL Posts: 2,503	Let's see what happens - I think when Hampton gets his head on straight he will return to his prior form. Moreover, if he can't pitch maybe they can use him at 1B - his offensive output couldn't help but be better than what they've gotten the position the last few seasons !! __________________ "I would submit that if the world survives for a million years, perhaps its finest hour may be that in the last half of the 20th century, when the power to blow up the world rested in the hands of a few men in two very unsophisticated and suspicious countries, we didn't do it, and one American, Richard Nixon, moved the cold war away from permanent confrontation toward victory. How could any wrong that he did compare with that?" - John Sears

11-18-2002, 09:24 PM	#25
Duque NetShrine's Desperado Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Southern CA Posts: 2,638	Here's the question I always ask in a 3-team trade - would the Marlins have traded Wilson, Johnson, et al. for Spooneybarger? __________________ Bad Andy It's such a fine line between stupid and clever.

11-19-2002, 09:26 AM	#29
satchel NetShrine All-Century Team Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Boston, MA Posts: 2,601	That is really interesting. The Braves may have pulled off a real coup here, especially if they keep one of Maddux and Glavine to go along with Hampton. Spooneybarger has upside, but you have to give value to get value. 'course, it remains to be seen whether Hampton will have value. My gut tells me that he'll settle down in half a season and become a very good pitcher again. __________________ Rare mold, old vomit - An anagram rejected by Tom Riddle

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11-18-2002, 12:13 AM	#16
Fatwater Fewl NetShrine MVP Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Charlottetown, PEI Posts: 261	Should turn out to be a good deal for the Braves. I predict Hampton will bounce back well -- 13 -15 wins as the team stands now; he might give 20 a run if they fill the holes at first, second and third.

11-18-2002, 09:23 AM	#17
Sopalt Posts: n/a	The more I think about this deal, the more I'm perplexed. The only benefit to the Braves that I see with this deal is that they don't have to pay Hampton a nickel in years 4, 5 and 6 of his remaining contract. While that would come out to an average of just under $6 million per year (which could be a super bargain if Hampton returns to his pre-Colorado form), from my limited vantage point, it doesn't help much with the next three years. I thought the Braves were trying to shed payroll, which is why they weren't sure if they could keep Maddux and Glavine. If I'm not mistaken, I think they've already committed $56 million next year to six players. With Hampton, that now makes $67 million. Maddux's agent Scott Boras has made it clear that Maddux will not take a "hometown discount" to stay with the Braves. Maddux made over $13 million last year. I'm guessing he's not going to take a pay cut. Best case, let's assume he'd be willing to pitch for the Braves at the same salary he made last year. The Braves' payroll would then be $80 million for 8 players. My guess is that they'd be hardpressed to reduce their payroll much from last year when the payroll was somewhere in the $90 - $92 million range. So does the Hampton deal mean the Braves might not keep Maddux as well as Glavine? Again, to me it looks like the "sugar" in the Hampton deal is that the Braves free up a lot of cash starting with year #4. Wouldn't they have been able to free up a lot of cash otherwise? Three years from now, in the offseason between year #3 and year #4, Glavine and Maddux will be 39 and Smoltz will be 38. At that point, I'm sure that none of the three, certainly not Glavine and Maddux, will be commanding top $ and that no one would be looking for a multi-year deal. I'm even wondering if Maddux will still be in the game at that point. At his present rate, he should reach 300 wins in two more seasons. While he's not about numbers, one would have to wonder what he would have to play for after that. Personally, if I were looking into the future at years 4, 5 and 6, I would look at other pitchers, namely Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. Three years from now, Hampton will be 33, Hudson 30, Mulder 28 and Zito 27. If I'm not mistaken, players are allowed to become free agents after six years. If that's the case, Hudson will be a free agent after the 2004 season while Mulder and Zito would be free agents after the 2005 season. As for the near future, I would like to think the Braves could have kept Glavine for 3 years for much less money. In the next three years, the Braves will pay Hampton $35.5 million. So far, Glavine has been gotten offers of about $27 million and $31 million for 3 years. I could be wrong, but my hunch was that Glavine would have signed for less if the Braves even gave him a multi-year deal. At this point, money isn't the issue so much as security and stability for his family. Glavine knows he doesn't have too many years left in the game and unless he's been stupid with his money, he should be financially set. Also, I believe his wife is from Atlanta and obviously Atlanta is the only home his kids have known. Why would he want to uproot them for a few years? The answer is simply if the Braves don't want his services, which it's clear they don't. One other thing - I realize Coors Field is a bad place for a pitcher. Of all the pitchers who pitched for Colorado, I thought Hampton would be the best guy. Kile was a no-brainer. Kile's trademark was his big curve ball, which obviously wasn't going to break as much in the thin air. Neagle was a no-brainer, too. Before going to Colorado, he lived on fly ball outs. Obviously, more of those fly balls were going to leave the yard at Coors Field. Hampton, however, is a sinker ball pitcher who lives on ground ball outs. Does the thin air affect his sinker balls that much?

11-18-2002, 11:50 AM	#19
sweaver Netshrine Cleanup Hitter Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: The Mountain State Posts: 8,883	Any pitch that spins and breaks, will break less in thinner air. That's why it's more difficult for everyone to pitch in Coors. Hampton will need about half a season to get his head screwed on straight, then he will be successful. Spooneybarger is a good arm, but it's a good gamble for the Braves, given that Hampton is 30 as opposed to Glavine at 37 when the season starts.

11-18-2002, 03:55 PM	#21
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	Probably a win / win / win three way trade if there ever was one.

11-18-2002, 07:41 PM	#24
Fuzzy Bear NetShrine's Evangelist Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Living by faith, and not by sight! Posts: 2,194	I never like it when a team dumps a young talent like Spooneybarger, whose future is ahead of him. The Royals of the 1970s contended by keeping the Spooneybargers of that era; they were the hungry players with something to prove. On the other hand, Hampton, while a current head case, may straighten up under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone. I should, in fairness to the Braves, point out that they have given up young pitchers in trade before who were well regarded (Pete Smith, Kent Mercker, Derek Lilliquist). The Braves DO seem to be able to distinguish their Grade A-B prospects from their Grade C-D prospects; at least they have in the past, and they have the same regime. Not every team can say that.

11-18-2002, 10:11 PM	#26
Sopalt Posts: n/a	Mea Culpa? (My mistake) Just saw a report on Yahoo that preliminary reports were erroneously backwards. The Yahoo report claims that the Braves will owe Hampton only $5.5 million over the next three years and then they'll pay dearly for the next three years after that. Can anyone confirm that? If that's the case, this makes more sense. The Braves would then have some room to sign either Glavine or Maddux. If they aren't so keen on dropping their payroll over the next three years, they might (though very improbable) be able to keep both Maddux and Glavine. If they did keep both Maddux and Glavine, and Hampton returns somewhat to his pre-Colorado form, that could be one heckuva rotation: Maddux, Glavine, Millwood, Hampton and Moss. So if I was mistaken, please forgive the strong remarks in earlier posts.

11-19-2002, 08:42 AM	#28
shortstop NetShrine Hot Prospect Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: NYC Posts: 28	This article in the NYTimes details the money breakdown a bit further: http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/19/sp...ll/19BASE.html excerpt: "... Hampton, a 30-year-old left-hander, will cost the Braves less than the average major league salary the next three years: $2 million in 2003 and in '04, and $1.5 million in '05. The Marlins will pay the Braves $9 million, $10 million and $11 million in those seasons. The Marlins' payments will be offset by the money they will receive from the Rockies: $2 million in each of the next two years and $2.5 million in the third year. The Braves will pay Hampton's entire salary the final three years, a total of $43 million, meaning they will pay $48.5 million for six years, a steal if Hampton reverts to his pre-Coors Field form...."

11-19-2002, 09:46 AM	#30
TimmyB NetShrine's Magic 8-Ball Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Where the cops speak slow and the air is nice Posts: 2,591	The corrected numbers make this deal even more interesting. (Also, forget my "kudos" to Colorado -- I'm sure every other team with a Hampton-esque player under contract must shudder at the amount they had to eat to move him). The Boston Globe had a sentence or two this morning saying the Braves are making out so well on this they could resign Glavine AND Maddux. Time will tell on this part. So, I guess I'll leave it at: Kudos for sea-level!

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