How To Pitch Bonds [Merged Threads]

[SmedIndy]

I'm not worried about the fans - I think if you put more people on base, more people will score.

[poorme]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
I'm not worried about the fans - I think if you put more people on base, more people will score.

while I agree that this is the case 99.9% of the time, barry is the 0.1%.

Bill James did that simulation with Babe Ruth - walking him every time, etc. Well, I wouldn't walk barry 100% of the time. probably 50% of the time.

[soxfan121]

It might be gutless (I disagree, btw) but it is also the smart percentage play. Pitching to Bonds is much more dangerous than pitching to Benito Santiago. Period. So if you have the chance to 'pitch around' Bonds, IMO, you do so. I would not walk Bonds with a runner on first - I probably would if there was a runner(s) on 2nd or 3rd. I would not walk Bonds to start an inning, but I would with 2 down and no one on.

Basically, it comes down to what gives the Angels the best chance at victory. I think they will pitch to him - and probably too often - and the percentages say that Bonds will put runs on the board with more frequency when he swings the stick than when he walks.

If Benito hits well in the Series, the Giants probably win. If Benito goes 1-18, then the Angels probably win. Bonds presence forces the other team to find other ways to beat his TEAM. And Benito Santiago, while he has had a nice season, is not someone I fear greatly. I fear Bonds greatly. So, I would make Benito beat me. If he can, the Giants will win...if he cannot the Giants will lose.

[VNV Nation]

I have a feeling that the Angels will challenge Bonds more than any NL team. Every team in the NL has years of memories of Bonds killing them and the Angels pitchers don't have those experiences.

I suspect that Bonds will get a lot of huge hits early in the Series, at least in situations where you really have to make some effort to get him out (leading off an inning, early in the game, bases loaded, etc.)

[moose]

Originally posted by VNV Nation
I have a feeling that the Angels will challenge Bonds more than any NL team. Every team in the NL has years of memories of Bonds killing them and the Angels pitchers don't have those experiences.

I suspect that Bonds will get a lot of huge hits early in the Series, at least in situations where you really have to make some effort to get him out (leading off an inning, early in the game, bases loaded, etc.)

especially frankie and percival. frankie because, well, he kinda just fires it in there, rivera-style. Percival because he has seemed to take offense at the suggestion that his stuff is not good enough to go right at bonds.

[calexpat]

We had a similar thread a while back no?

Poorme's point is right on. The famous Bill James study on Babe Ruth proves you shouldn't walk anyone 100% of the time. It doesn't prove you shouldn't walk someone 50% of the time.

I hope the Angels pitch to him.

[spitball]

It'll obviously depend on the situation , but for the most part the Angels will probably play him straight up. I hope they don't get too macho though.

[moose]

i think we're all on the same page here:

-In minimal damage situations, pitch to Bonds, except if solo/2-run jack can impact the game.

-In medium damage situations, tread lightly / pitch around bonds, unless blowout either way

-In high damage situations, pitch around / intentionally walk.

[Gosfgiants]

Originally posted by moose
i think we're all on the same page here:

-In minimal damage situations, pitch to Bonds, except if solo/2-run jack can impact the game.

-In medium damage situations, tread lightly / pitch around bonds, unless blowout either way

-In high damage situations, pitch around / intentionally walk.

I think that has been the strategy for the past two seasons. I'm not sure it works.

[moose]

Originally posted by Gosfgiants
I think that has been the strategy for the past two seasons. I'm not sure it works.

what's "works"?

i mean, you're not going to hold barry to a .200 OBP if oyou pitch to him....

[VNV Nation]

if people pitched Bonds "straight up" he'd hit .400 with 90 homers and 100 walks a year.

if they pitched him like they pitch Lenny Kofton he'd hit .430 with 120 homers and 60 walks a year.

[Max Power]

The NY Daily News today had a chart for each regular in the WS today - -

"Where To Pitch Him" - Batting Average based on pitches in the strikezone.

For Bonds, his BA on strikes low and away was .165
On strikes down the middle and low the BA was .269
On strikes up and in the BA was .279

Right down the middle, it was .523
Down and in was .422
Up and away was .418

He does not have to be walked.

Like any hitter, the "secret" to getting him out is pitch him "up and in - and - down and away."

Just don't give him any strikes in the middle, in or out, and down and in...........like you would pitch to any LH power hitter.

[VNV Nation]

I don't think it's that simple.
what about pitches that are missed or fouled off, for one?

[Gosfgiants]

Originally posted by Max Power
Like any hitter, the "secret" to getting him out is pitch him "up and in - and - down and away."

Just don't give him any strikes in the middle, in or out, and down and in...........like you would pitch to any LH power hitter.

The problem seems to be that when one the of the pitches hit his hot zone he rarely misses. I've never seen a guy so aware of the zone. Bite off a little too much and it's bye, bye, baby.

I don't have a suggestion on how to pitch him. I'm just glad he's on my team.

[Max Power]

Originally posted by VNV Nation
I don't think it's that simple.
what about pitches that are missed or fouled off, for one?

I assume they are do-overs - - that the BA on strikes only applies to strikes missed or put in play.