Probability theory strikes again

calexpat · 10-15-2002, 01:02 AM

According to mlb.com, since 1995, a total of 32 teams have been in the position of needing to win three straight games to win a postseason series.

Of those 32 teams, 4 have come back to win the series: the 2001 Yankees against the A's in the Division Series, the 1999 Red Sox against the Indians in the Division Series, the 1996 Braves against the Cardinals in the NLCS and the 1995 Mariners against the Yankees in the Division Series.

4 out of 32 teams equals a winning percentage of 12.5%.

If you assume that the team needing to win three straight has a 50/50 chance of winning each remaining game, then you'd expect those teams to win the series (50%)^3=12.5% of the time. In other words, reality and theory are in perfect accord.

One interesting thing about this is that it confirms that teams down three games actually have a 50/50 chance of winning each game. More evidence anything can happen in a small series.

VNV Nation · 10-15-2002, 01:07 AM

there should have been a team to come back from 3-0 though.

calexpat · 10-15-2002, 01:17 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by VNV Nation
there should have been a team to come back from 3-0 though.

Yeah, that should happen 1 out 16 times. Not sure if there have been 16 teams down 3-0 since 1995, but there have been a lot more than that in baseball history and I don't think anybody's ever come back from 3-0 in a 7 game series. Trivia folks?

moose · 10-15-2002, 01:32 AM

interesting thought, cp

sweaver · 10-15-2002, 12:32 PM

A 50-50 shot of winning one. A 1-in-8 shot of winning the series, all things being equal.

rcartman28 · 10-15-2002, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by calexpat
Yeah, that should happen 1 out 16 times. Not sure if there have been 16 teams down 3-0 since 1995, but there have been a lot more than that in baseball history and I don't think anybody's ever come back from 3-0 in a 7 game series. Trivia folks?

As far as I know, the only 3-0 deficits ever overcome were in hockey, once by the 1975(?) Islanders against Pittsburgh and in the 1942 (I think) finals by Toronto over Detroit. I thought I read about the Newark Bears overcoming a 3-0 deficit in one of their playoffs in the late 30s, too......

Mathematically, if it is a 1 in 16 chance of a team rallying from 3-0 to win (if the teams are equal) and it hasn't happened in MLB, I would think that would suggest a team that goes up 3-0 is somewhat superior to the other team.....

SmedIndy · 10-15-2002, 01:52 PM

The psyche of the team down 3-0 may have something to do with it as well. I'm not a big guy on chemistry but having it handed to you three straight times may be a lot to weigh on someone's mind, espeically since they can't lose another one.

moose · 10-15-2002, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SmedIndy
The psyche of the team down 3-0 may have something to do with it as well. I'm not a big guy on chemistry but having it handed to you three straight times may be a lot to weigh on someone's mind, espeically since they can't lose another one.

it has nothing to do with chemistry. when you're down 3-0, you get antsy, impatient, and maybe swing at pitches you otherwise wouldn't, overthrow from the mound, and try to make crazy defensive plays that you feel you "have" to make.

KCBOOMER · 10-15-2002, 03:17 PM

If all things are equal the odds of coming back when you are down 3-0 are 1 in 16. There are only three seven games series each year (if you are down 3-0 in a five game series the series is over).

Since 1995 there have only been 21 seven game series (with one of those still to be played). I don't know how many of those were 3-0 but I reckon it not to be many. If there have been 4 then that gives us a one in four chance to have had a team down 3-0 come back and win.

WiredTiger · 10-15-2002, 05:11 PM

I would contend that a team that is down 3-0 has more than likely established itself as the worse of two teams. You probably don't have a 50% chance of winning each of the next four games.

If you changed the chance of winning to 60/40 then it would be close to a 2.5% chance of coming back. So you could expect a comeback 1 out of every 50 series or so.

Ytown Tribe fan · 10-15-2002, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by WiredTiger
I would contend that a team that is down 3-0 has more than likely established itself as the worse of two teams. You probably don't have a 50% chance of winning each of the next four games.

Give that man a cigar!

calexpat · 10-15-2002, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sweaver
A 50-50 shot of winning one. A 1-in-8 shot of winning the series, all things being equal.

Edited to clarify.

I agree that teams down 3-0 probably don't have a 50% chance of winning each game. Interestingly, since 1995 teams down 3-1 do, though that might just be a product of small sample size.

SHOELESSJOE3 · 10-16-2002, 11:59 AM

There are a few factors as to why teams down 3 games seldom come back. One has to be, that one good team has to beat another good team 3 consecutive games. Thats a low percentage probability, for any team to win three games in a row.

10-15-2002, 01:02 AM	#1
calexpat All-NetShrine Team Member Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: New Haven, CT Posts: 448	Probability theory strikes again According to mlb.com, since 1995, a total of 32 teams have been in the position of needing to win three straight games to win a postseason series. Of those 32 teams, 4 have come back to win the series: the 2001 Yankees against the A's in the Division Series, the 1999 Red Sox against the Indians in the Division Series, the 1996 Braves against the Cardinals in the NLCS and the 1995 Mariners against the Yankees in the Division Series. 4 out of 32 teams equals a winning percentage of 12.5%. If you assume that the team needing to win three straight has a 50/50 chance of winning each remaining game, then you'd expect those teams to win the series (50%)^3=12.5% of the time. In other words, reality and theory are in perfect accord. One interesting thing about this is that it confirms that teams down three games actually have a 50/50 chance of winning each game. More evidence anything can happen in a small series. Last edited by calexpat : 10-15-2002 at 08:03 PM.

10-15-2002, 03:17 PM	#9
KCBOOMER NetShrine All-Century Team Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Home of the T-Bones Posts: 11,116	If all things are equal the odds of coming back when you are down 3-0 are 1 in 16. There are only three seven games series each year (if you are down 3-0 in a five game series the series is over). Since 1995 there have only been 21 seven game series (with one of those still to be played). I don't know how many of those were 3-0 but I reckon it not to be many. If there have been 4 then that gives us a one in four chance to have had a team down 3-0 come back and win. __________________ KCBOOMER *Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball*

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10-15-2002, 01:07 AM	#2
VNV Nation Membership Suspended 11/19/02 Join Date: May 2002 Location: VNV Nation Posts: 2,952	there should have been a team to come back from 3-0 though.

10-15-2002, 01:32 AM	#4
moose Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Socs Posts: 3,400	interesting thought, cp

10-15-2002, 12:32 PM	#5
sweaver Netshrine Cleanup Hitter Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: The Mountain State Posts: 8,883	A 50-50 shot of winning one. A 1-in-8 shot of winning the series, all things being equal.

10-15-2002, 01:52 PM	#7
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	The psyche of the team down 3-0 may have something to do with it as well. I'm not a big guy on chemistry but having it handed to you three straight times may be a lot to weigh on someone's mind, espeically since they can't lose another one.

10-15-2002, 05:11 PM	#10
WiredTiger Guest Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: The city of Kaline, Cobb and Greenberg Posts: 3,395	I would contend that a team that is down 3-0 has more than likely established itself as the worse of two teams. You probably don't have a 50% chance of winning each of the next four games. If you changed the chance of winning to 60/40 then it would be close to a 2.5% chance of coming back. So you could expect a comeback 1 out of every 50 series or so.

10-16-2002, 11:59 AM	#13
SHOELESSJOE3 NetShrine MVP Join Date: May 2002 Location: Buffalo Posts: 207	There are a few factors as to why teams down 3 games seldom come back. One has to be, that one good team has to beat another good team 3 consecutive games. Thats a low percentage probability, for any team to win three games in a row.

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