Guys who've progressed toward the HOF this year

[Fuzzy Bear]

Everyone in NetShrine must know by now that I'm a HOF junkie. Handicapping a player's chances of enshrinement is a sport within a sport for me.

Every year a players performance moves him either closer to the HOF or further away from it. A player either achieves a
milestone(s), or extinguishes his chance of achieving a
milestone(s).

This year, I think that Jeff Kent and Curt Schilling have done the most to project themselves forward to the HOF, moreso than any other players in MLB. They could still do more, given that the postseason awaits, and especially given that Schilling could win the Cy Young Award. Nonetheless, I believe Kent went from a 25% or so chance for the HOF before this year to a little better than 50-50, plus he's getting to the phase of his career where his counting stats will kick in big (by the standards of middle infielders).

Schilling has been talked about (as has Kent), but he has gone from no chance in 2000 to a slim chance if everything goes super in 2001, to a 10% chance to be elected based on what he's done to date, and a better than even chance if he wins over 200 games. Few players have projected themselves toward the HOF as much at Schilling's age without counting stats kicking in, so his HOF surge is remarkable.

There are other players that I believe have advanced their candidacies significantly.

Rafael Palmeiro has moved to the point where he has entered the automatic zone. Fred McGriff has moved up this year to where he has, I believe, an 80-85% chance of getting in, based on what he's done to date; he was 50-50 in my opinion before the season started.

I believe that Manny Ramirez has moved to the point where he would be automatically enshrined if he injured his back today, on the basis of this season. His career, I believe, is very similar to Hank Greenberg's and he pushed himself forward this year toward enshrinement.

John Olerud has moved himself toward the HOF. He is a longshot, but could get in on what he's done now. Olerud's chances will improve even more if he hits .300 for the season, but the biggest factor in his progress is his hits. Olerud will end up, I believe, with about 1,940 hits, which means he would have to hit 129 hits per year to get 3,000. Olerud's established hit level per season is 149. This year is a big step for him; he's on pace to increase his hits per year by 3, from 146. At his age, that's significant.

David Wells has put himself back in the HOF spotlight?!? Wells is now 183-121 lifetime, which puts his WP over .600. He could win 20 this year, another big boost. His ERA, while high, is under league much more than one would think, and will be moreso by the end of the season. He almost extinguished all chances last year; now he's at 5-10% and could project forward quickly, especially if he can pull off 20 wins this year.

Ivan Rodriguez has pushed himself forward this year to where he may now be an automatic. He will not be judged by the standards of corner outfielders, and he is over .300 again. He has put together enough All-Star seasons to where I believe he has a 75% chance to go in right now if he blew out his knee for good in the spring.

Jason Giambi has moved very close to where what he has done right now, in and of itself, may be enough to put him in the HOF.
He's had a big year this year. His BA is over .300. He's already won an MVP. This year puts Giambi in Kiner-Greenberg territory; the area where what one has done in a short career may be enough.

I've not mentioned the obvious; the guys who have been locks long ago. I wonder what others think; if they have any other candidates who helped themselves a lot this year.

[Skip]

Responding to those you mentioned, by what I think will happen, not neccessarily what should happen:

Agreed on Kent and Schilling. I think both Raffy (definitely) and McGriff (probably) are locks unless the voters are too jaded by the time 20XX comes around. No on Manny; not yet. Big big longshot on Olerud. No on Wells. Better than 50-50 on Pudge. Waiting at one-two more years to think about Giambi; if he quit now no way.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by Skip
Responding to those you mentioned, by what I think will happen, not neccessarily what should happen:

Waiting at one-two more years to think about Giambi; if he quit now no way.

To clarify my view on Giambi; if he got hurt, and had two below average seasons a la Mattingly circa 1995, I think he'd get in on peak value.

[VNV Nation]

Since these guys are active, shouldn't this be in PA&S?

I agree that Schilling and Kent have done more for their candidacy than any other players this year, in that they were in a longshot/gray area range and perhaps moved strongly into the area where they likely will get enshrined.

I would have never believed as recently as two years ago that we would be talking about Jim Thome for the HOF, but he has established himself as the perhaps the best of the new McSluggys.

Bernie Williams, who looked like he might be slip slidin' into a slow oblivion, had one of his best years. He's fighting the clock now but his career totals are starting to look impressive. If he can make it clear past Smith/Lynn/Averill range, he will have a good shot to get in.

I would add Shawn Green to the mix...a third 40-homer year and an MVP-type season greatly strengthens his credentials.

Gary Sheffield did quite a bit and can do quite a bit more; the more winning teams he helps get over the hump, the less the negative stuff will be remembered.

Among the younger players, Tejada, Chavez, Pujols, Guerrero, Dunn continue their march. I suspect two of them won't make it.

[JamesI]

I agree with a lot of Fuzzy's thinking. I'd put someof the numbers lower.

Kent and Schilling are about 35-40% right now.
McGriff and Palmeiro have my votes.

Wells, probably not.
Giambi, too soon to tell.
Rameriez too soon, but does not need much more.
IRod I think is 60% right now to earn it, 95% to get in.
Olerud is 30% right now. He's good, but I just think he's a better Mark Grace in the eyes of those who will matter.
Sheffield and Thome 65% right now.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Another pitching triple crown for Pedro will help pad his resume. He'll be over 150 wins and he's only 30.

Jim Thome took a big step this year.

Goodness knows I've pushed Thome enough on this board - but I'm don't think he makes it based on what he's done so far - and is liable to start breaking down soon - a la Mo Vaughn and Frank Thomas.

I love Jim - but he's a big hulking guy- and big hulking guys haven't done real well avoiding injuries.. plus - missing a lot of games with a sore back lately... He's pushing his way to the hall - but I'm not sure he's a real good shot to make it.

I could predict the same doom for Giambi - and I will.

Sheffield is the most likely to keep adding to his credentials and make himself hall-worthy.

[qtlaw]

I guess the locks like Johnson and A-Rod are excluded?

If there was ever going to be a DH enshrined I think its got to be Edgar.

Schilling- I already said he's only had maybe three very good seasons, no way, let's not get too wrapped up on the present.

Palmiero and McGriff very close.

What about Vizquel? I think so. He's the best glove man, plus he's excelled on both turf and grass and improved greatly as a hitter (are you listening/watching Ordonez?)

[gyb13]

[smartass] All players have, really [/sa]

[Skip]

[dumbass] Do you really think (for instance) Rickey's season has "progressed" him toward the HOF. You're just being a smarty-pants, Mister! [/da]

Originally posted by gyb13
[smartass] All players have, really [/sa]

Unless Jose Lima has moved to New York State, this isn't true...

[pwdennis]

I think Kent and Schilling have made the biggest strides this year, both now being in the 50-50 range as to making the HOF based on carer to date. Thome needs another year or two and Smoltz needs a few more dominating years as a closer

[SmedIndy]

Dunno about Smoltz. He's got the most fragile arm of the big three, and there's some strain being put upon it even as the Designated Ninth Inning Pitcher.

If he hadn't of gotten hurt and pitched until his late 30's he was pretty sure he'd get in - now it's a coin flip.

[moose]

i think kent made the biggest stride.

i think schilling had a mighty jump, moreso because of almost definitely getting the CY, which will help. I think he needs to do this for 2 more years to get in, or get close.


raffy and crime dog sealed the deal.


thome "stealthily" bolstered his case. MEANING: in 5 years, when he retires, his numbers will look better because he was so damn good this year.

Tom Glavine, Rafael Palmeiro and Fred McGriff all became locks for me this year.

Frank Thomas and Juan Gonzalez are both former greats padding their numbers this year. Thomas is already a lock. Gonzalez still isn't. Throw Griffey Junior into this mix, too.

I agree that Schilling and Kent perhaps did more than anyone else to advance themselves. Kent now has 4-5 great offensive years at 2B. Schilling now has 4-5 great seasons, too. Is it enough? Not at this point, but if both of them can have 2-3 more great or near-great years and then slowly decline into their early forties, then who knows?

Alex Rodriguez (who is an obvious candidate) could now get into the Hall of Fame, if he were to die in a plane crash this winter or some such thing (knock on wood). Forget the 10-year requirement. I think A-Rod is now a shoo-in.

Mike Piazza moved up the career lists despite a poor season.

Mo Vaughn has secured his place as someone who will never see the Hall of Fame unless he buys a ticket.

Manny R. and Thome have done much to advance themselves.

Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield have helped themselves again this year. Scott Rolen has also (though he's got a very long way to go.)

The Killer B's have added to their career totals, but I don't see that this was a great season for either of them, by any means. Moreso for Bagwell; less so for Biggio.

David Wells is not now nor will he ever be a Hall of Famer.