A's Lucky?

[poorme]

Here's a link to an interesting story:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/2002/0909/1429574.html

Here's the punchline:

What does all this mean? Quick generalizations:

1. Building your pitching staff around cheap homegrown starters is an extremely risky idea. As the Braves and A's have proven, it happens successfully about once a decade.

2. Teams like the Royals or Padres who are trying to duplicate the Oakland method aren't likely to achieve the same results. Some young pitchers don't pan out, they get hurt or they get traded and then develop.

3. Small-revenue teams are at a huge disadvantage since a team will have to eventually invest in some high-priced pitching (either their own or free agents) in order to win.

Billy Beane is a rare mastermind. He'd be the first GM I would hire to run a team.

But Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder -- a trio of freaks -- are even more rare

[rcartman28]

Yeah, he got lucky on Zito, Hudson, and Mulder, but he also knows that drafting college pitchers (as all three of them were) is a much better bet than drafting some flame-thrower out of high school.......

[poorme]

Beane would be one of the first guys I'd hire. But the odds of repeating what the A's did are pretty slim.

The White Sox had the top pitching prospects in the game a few years ago. One by one they got hurt, were traded, didn't pan out, etc. I think that's more the norm.

Anyone remember the "Four Aces"?

[KCBOOMER]

The Royals have had zero luck in drafting pitchers. They went through a bunch of college who either got hurt or flopped. They are now trying the high school route. Too soon to tell on that.

[SmedIndy]

I wouldn't count the Padres out yet. Injuries killed 'em, but with Lawrence there, and Tankersley on the way, it could still work out.

[pathogan]

... was a blowhard but he did have a point with "luck is the residue of design."The Mets tried it with their "trio" of Special k, after their disasterous early 90's experiment with Murray, Bonilla, Saberhagen. Then they went the youtth route. then they tried the veterans thing again. I think having a plan and sticking with it, helps. After all, what other choice do markets like the A's have? Or Kc Or milwaukee? Pittsburgh?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by rcartman28
Yeah, he got lucky on Zito, Hudson, and Mulder, but he also knows that drafting college pitchers (as all three of them were) is a much better bet than drafting some flame-thrower out of high school.......

Some of the "luck" stems from the fact that these guys have stayed healthy to date. That could change tomorrow.

I don't really understand why the A's strategy isn't duplicatable. Keeping pitchers healthy, I believe, is more skill than luck. How many Braves have had major arm injuries under Cox and Leo Mazzone?

The Braves pitchers have better health records than the Reds outfielders.

[Skip]

Originally posted by Fuzzy Bear
The Braves pitchers have better health records than the Reds outfielders.

I always knew that deep down you were just plain MEAN, Fuzzy.

[tortured angel]

Originally posted by Fuzzy Bear

The Braves pitchers have better health records than the Reds outfielders.

2 of the Braves pitcers have a good health record. Don't foget about Smoltz, Averey, Lightenberg, etc. and Marquis has spent time on the DL this year.

[poorme]

the braves have had a lot of injuries to their pitchers over the years. just not to maddux or glavine. and smoltz had a good run for about 8-10 years.