The Curse Of 50 Saves?

[Max Power]

Is it just me - or, is it true that the majority of the time when a guy has 50+ Saves in a season, the next season he pays the price for it (in terms of some struggles)?

Thoughts?

[VNV Nation]

Of the six pitchers with 50-save seasons, five set career highs in games pitched. The only one who didn't was HOffman, but if you count postseason games, he pitched more in 1998 than any other time in his career, and of course, his postseason wasn't a smashing success.

[Craig S.]

I think that in the case of a few players, their struggles weren't really due to pitching too much the previous season, but to the fact that they had peaked with their big season.

In the cases of Thigpen, Beck and Eckersley, their careers went downhill following those seasons. I don't think it could be a post-big year jinx, because they never really recovered to have more big years. Eck put up a couple more seasons with decent save numbers, but his ERA was far higher than during his big years.

I'm sure the extra innings or appearances take their toll, but I don't think it's the only factor.

[Duque]

You are thinking of Rivera, no?

Prior to this outing today, he had been outstanding. Near his '98, '99 levels, albeit in a limited # of IP. It's not the 50 saves that should be a concern, it should be how they get them. If a guy gets 50 saves pitching 50 innings - no problem. But, in Rivera's case, he really was overworked last year.

Unfortunately for a reliever, one really bad outing can skew all of their stats.

[Max Power]

Originally posted by Duque
You are thinking of Rivera, no? Prior to this outing today, he had been outstanding.

Huh? He's appeared in 31 games so far this year and has 4 losses and 3 Blown Saves.

To me, that says, as a closer, 23% of the time, he has not gotten the job done. That's not outstanding, to me.

[sweaver]

How many times was a loss and a blown save in the same outing?

[Duque]

He had given up 7 runs in 32 IP, had a 0.96 WHIP, and struck out a batter per inning, prior to 14 July. Kaz Sasaki has 3 losses and 3 Blown Saves in virtually the same # of innings.

[KCBOOMER]

I think this is more of once you reach the mountain top their is only one direction left and that is down.

As for Rivera he seems to be a little more vulnerable this year but is actually having a very good season relative to mere mortals. Compared to prior years where he was ungodly then you might think he isn't getting the job done.

[Max Power]

Originally posted by sweaver
How many times was a loss and a blown save in the same outing?

Three BS = 2 losses and 1 win, I believe, for Rivera.

[Duque]

I do think Max has a point here - there's only been 6 guys in ML history with 50+ saves: Thigpen in '90, Hoffman in '98, Myers in '93, Beck in '98, Eckersley in '92, and Rivera in '01. Four of those guys (exempting Rivera, whose season isn't complete) suffered a drop in performance the year following. The only one that didn't was Hoffman, who had the lowest IP of any guy with 50 saves.

[gyb13]

too small a sample size. and you're analyzing something based on an arbitrary number (50) of an arbitary stat (save).

I concur.

Not enough data to support the contention that 50+ saves might somehow affect performance in a manner besides the normal regression to the mean that athletes usually suffer after peak seasons.

Furthermore, the implication itself may be flawed in that saves are a situation-dependent statistic while innings pitched in relief are less so. Far better to examine this from the perspective of peak IP seasons by closers rather than by peak save seasons.

I leave you to it.