Four of one, a half dozen of another

There is statistical evidence being presented currently extolling the virtues of the four-man starting rotation.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians have expanded to a six man rotation.

Which leads me to a few questions I'm curious about:
1) Given five or more starting pitchers of relatively similar value, is there more merit to a rotation of 5? Detroit, for example, could use a 4 man rotation to get more out of Steve Sparks - but does that have more value than exposing a Nate Cornejo to more MLB experience?
2) Does the 4 man rotation put more of an emphasis on power pitching than deception pitching? Would/could a Jamie Moyer become over-exposed?
3) In a situation where winning games is secondary to talent evaluation or exposing players to MLB, would a 6-man rotation help a situation where a 4-man rotation would hinder it (Cleveland, currently)? Is it better to get more rookies exposure over a 2/3 week period than to get select rookies more exposure?
4) Although, according to the study, more effective than a 5-man rotation, would a 4-man rotation adversely effect the success of old pitchers? There seems to be a few more old pitchers now than ever before. Not to say there never were periods of aged pitchers, but after 15 years of pattern 'A', could there be a damaging effect of changing them to pattern 'B'?

[SmedIndy]

It's easier to find four good starters than it is to find five.

I don't think a four man hinders the slop ballers anymore than they are hindered already.

As for September, since it's a cattle call audition, then why not just throw guys out there.

[poorme]

1)If you had 5 starters of equal value, you could move one to the pen and release your worst reliever.

2)The question is whether power pitchers or crafty pitchers would fare better in a 4 man staff. In a four man staff, a pitcher might make one extra start against each opponent. Don't think it would really matter.

3)If the goal is not to win the games, then it is purely personal choice. would you rather get many young pitchers short exposure or a few young pitchers longer exposure. Personally, I don't think 3-4 starts in the big leagues is much to go on as far as decision making.

4)I think you'd have to institute a four man rotation during the offseason, so that pitchers could change their training schedules, etc. Theoretically, you could have your starters pitch the same number of innings in a 4-man or 5-man rotation.

sidenote: I'd be surprised if a 4-man ever comes back, because the first time a pitcher is hurt (the probability of that happening is 100%) everyone will blame the manager and his crazy ideas.

[SmedIndy]

Originally posted by poorme
sidenote: I'd be surprised if a 4-man ever comes back, because the first time a pitcher is hurt (the probability of that happening is 100%) everyone will blame the manager and his crazy ideas.

of course, because everyone (but those in the NDF) are all lemmings...

Things I don't know.....

Is there any data showing the average age of pitchers now - and the average age of pitchers 10, 20, 30, 40 years ago..

What is the % of pitchers over 35 now, and 10, 20.. etc years ago?

Are pitchers over a certain age threshold comparitively more effective nowthan they were 10, 20.. etc years ago?

I'm not against making the move to a 4-man rotation, but this all may be key evidence...

If a pitcher is more effective now later in his career, can we attribute that to rotations of 5 men?

I don't know...

[SmedIndy]

Look at the list below. Nothing screams that there's any issues with eras, etc. Knuckleballers seem to be prevalent, though, because they don't have issues with arm fatigue. I think players may be trending older just because of the $$ involved in the game.

Tom Burgmeier?




CAREER

AGE >= 35

RSAA RSAA
1 Lefty Grove 278
2 Randy Johnson 227
3 Cy Young 215
4 Hoyt Wilhelm 199
5 Jack Quinn 196
6 Dazzy Vance 169
7 Phil Niekro 165
8 Grover C Alexander 162
9 Ted Lyons 130
T10 Dennis Martinez 123
T10 Ellis Kinder 123
12 Gaylord Perry 112
13 Dutch Leonard 106
14 Roger Clemens 104
15 Charlie Hough 101
16 Warren Spahn 98
T17 Spud Chandler 89
T17 Tom Burgmeier 89
19 Nolan Ryan 87
20 Sal Maglie 85
21 Eddie Plank 79
T22 Allie Reynolds 78
T22 Babe Adams 78
24 Jamie Moyer 77
25 Walter Johnson 75

[VNV Nation]

If the four-man rotation came back in vogue, I think it would have to be a workload like 40 starts, 200 innings.

I remember looking at data on this in the early 1990s, when TOP starters still occasionally might make one or two starts a year on short rest. In that respect it was just as biased as the original study but the data seemed to point in the other direction and, in fact, most pitchers were appreciably more effective on five days rest than four.

[KCBOOMER]

It's probably a moot point because there us no one who is going to be the guinea pig for it. With today's omnipresent media ready to roast anyone at the slightest opportunity you would have to be one brave to dude to try it.

[tortured angel]

4 man rotation means 7 or 8 man bullpen which means even more pitching changes. Cardinal fans beware.

[SmedIndy]

Originally posted by tortured angel
4 man rotation means 7 or 8 man bullpen which means even more pitching changes. Cardinal fans beware.

Aside from that, I'd be in favor of a 4-man with a spot starter, plus sensible usage of relief pitchers.

I can dream, can't it.

[JamesI]

Originally posted by SmedIndy


Aside from that, I'd be in favor of a 4-man with a spot starter, plus sensible usage of relief pitchers.

I can dream, can't it.

We can all share this dream. 4 man rotations with a long reliever/spot starter ala Tim Wakefield would be a better thing for baseball I think.

[VNV Nation]

I think the six-man rotation would work well if each starter would go 27 starts and also make 10 relief appearances.

[tortured angel]

Originally posted by JamesI
We can all share this dream. 4 man rotations with a long reliever/spot starter ala Tim Wakefield would be a better thing for baseball I think.

The '86 Mets did pretty well with this arrangement. Gooden, Darling, Ojeda, Fernandez and my old high school classmate Rick Aguilera as the spot starter.

6+ men rotations, in which starters are used in relief on the 3rd and 4th day is a unique idea.

I'm not sure it's a bad idea to stick with five though - think about it from the Diamondbacks point of view - certainly they are the poster children of a team that would benefit from their top 4 instead of top 5....

162 games - 4 starters = 40 starts each. 5 starters = 32 starts each.

Schilling and Johnson start 16 more games.

For them, I would argue, it is not worth the risk of an unknown, no matter how slight, to get these two 80 instead of 64 starts.

Oakland may be a different story though. If you've got 4 starters, and could completely eradicate the 5th starter..

[JamesI]

Originally posted by CpUltravox
6+ men rotations, in which starters are used in relief on the 3rd and 4th day is a unique idea.

Didn't He who can not be named try this a few years back?