Ryan vs. Blyleven

wyvern37 · 05-13-2002, 02:09 PM

In several threads, I have complained that Ryan is over-valued and a marginal Hall of Famer. I thought I could illustrate this best by comparing him to another marginal Hall of Fame candidate - Bert Blyleven.

Nolan Ryan
334 Win Shares
112 % ERA+
324 Wins 292 Losses .525%
HR/9 .53
WHIP 1.25
K/BB Ratio 2.04
4 "All Star" Seasons
5 "Below League" Seasons
27 years of service

Blyleven
339 Win Shares
118% ERA+
287 Wins 250 Losses .535%
HR/9 .77
WHIP 1.20
K/BB Ratio 2.79
9 "All Star" Seasons
4 "Below League" Seasons
22 years of service

I really don't see the argument for Nolan Ryan's greatness apart from the strikeouts. And if strikeouts are so important, why can't Blyleven get in (he has 3,701)?

Ryan was not a big winner. A lot of people have argued that his teams sabotaged him and he would have won more playing on better teams. This just doesn't bear out. Ryan's record is very similar to other players with an ERA+ of 112%; he is about 19 victories short of expectation. HOWEVER:
1) Ryan was an unusually poor fielder. He had 90 career errors vs. 30 for Blyleven.
2) Ryan was one of the worst pitchers in the history of baseball at holding runners.

In my opinion, those two factors could easily account for the extra loss per season. Hell, I have seen games where Ryan walked the winning run, let him steal second and then score on a dinky single. Ryan's record is the record he earned. He is not better than his numbers show. He is an excellent pitcher, but he is definitely in a lower tier after guys like Seaver, Gibson, etc.

Notes: I am defining an "All Star" season as 20 Win Shares or more. "Below League" means an ERA worse than the league.

SmedIndy · 05-13-2002, 02:21 PM

Ryan's Support Neutral record was 336-280, according to Lee, so that's 12 extra wins.

He had two fab seasons, 1977 and 1987, sabotaged by his team.

And I don't consider his defense or inability to hold runners as a detriment to his pitching.

According to Lee, he had four complete seasons where he was a minus in RSAA, as opposed to six where he was over 20 RSAA.

Blyleven also could have won more with more support.

I do think some pitchers and players should come off Cooperstown's wall, but Ryan isn't one of them.

calexpat · 05-13-2002, 02:25 PM

Don't I get the distinct feeling this is familiar ground?

wyvern37 · 05-13-2002, 03:01 PM

The question is: Do you take Ryan if it means Blyleven doesn't get in?

Also, how does Blyleven do in RSAA?

JamesI · 05-13-2002, 03:06 PM

I think Ryan is overrated, and Blyleven underrated. I think Nolan is overall the better pitcher, but both are at least marginal hall candidates. If Nolan is a first ballot hall of famer, Blyleven should eventually get in.

SmedIndy · 05-13-2002, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by wyvern37
The question is: Do you take Ryan if it means Blyleven doesn't get in?

Also, how does Blyleven do in RSAA?

Five seasons with a negative RSAA.

10 seasons over 20 RSAA.

If Bert doesn't get in, it's not right. But that doesn't mean we kick Ryan out. It's just that the HOF voters are looking at the wrong numbers. Bert's ERA was hurt by playing in the AL. He had a 4.01 ERA, which translated into a 19 RSAA, in 1986.

JamesI · 05-13-2002, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by wyvern37
The question is: Do you take Ryan if it means Blyleven doesn't get in?

If I had to chose, I'd pick Ryan.

wyvern37 · 05-13-2002, 03:20 PM

I am not sure that I want them to kick Ryan out. (If that were even possible.)

It just frustrates me when deserving players like Blyleven, Carter and Whitaker can't get in because they are "marginal". Meanwhile, another player of equal value gets in on the first ballot because he has some unusual distinction which has minimal impact on his career value (i.e. lots of Ks.)

SmedIndy · 05-13-2002, 03:31 PM

Check the rest of the HOF threads here. You'll feel like you're in good company.

poorme · 05-13-2002, 03:32 PM

Most people here believe that Hall of Fame enshrinement should only be based on statistics. However, I think Ryan's incredible popularity plays a roll. He was hugely popular, bringing extra fans to the park with every start. The guy had "star appeal". Burt Blyleven did not. And don't fool yourself, this is an entertainment business first, a sport second.

Skip · 05-13-2002, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by poorme
And don't fool yourself, this is an entertainment business first, a sport second.

(John Wayne voice) Not around here it isn't partner.

KCBOOMER · 05-13-2002, 04:27 PM

We have done this before. If you want Blyleven then picking on Ryan is crazy. The strike out thing is big. It is one of the premier pitching records in baseball. Ryan had 2000 more strikeouts than Blyleven and only pitched an extra 430 innings to get it.

The no-hitters are a big deal. They may be a statistical oddity but Ryan has 7 has Blyleven has ZERO.

Being popular, unfortunately does matter. Certainly Ryan is more popular than Bert (though Bert is not unpopular) but the K's and no-no's far outweigh that factor.

No one seriously considers Nolan Ryan a first tier HoFer, but he is an HoFer. If he is not just look at where you set the bar for the next pitcher who wants to get into the HoF.

wyvern37 · 05-13-2002, 04:31 PM

So does that mean that David Wells gets in based on his cult status? How about Jim Abbott? If it is based on star appeal, we should be debating whether Jim Abbott get in before Jim Morris.

Even though it is called the Hall of FAME, people understand that these are supposed to be the best-performing players.

sweaver · 05-13-2002, 05:34 PM

In my book, both Ryan and Blyleven are Hall-worthy.

SmedIndy · 05-13-2002, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by wyvern37
So does that mean that David Wells gets in based on his cult status? How about Jim Abbott? If it is based on star appeal, we should be debating whether Jim Abbott get in before Jim Morris.

Even though it is called the Hall of FAME, people understand that these are supposed to be the best-performing players.

The iconic status of Ryan puts him over the top. It won't enter into the discussion with Wells.

05-13-2002, 02:09 PM	#1
wyvern37 Membership Revoked 9/11/02 Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 58	Ryan vs. Blyleven In several threads, I have complained that Ryan is over-valued and a marginal Hall of Famer. I thought I could illustrate this best by comparing him to another marginal Hall of Fame candidate - Bert Blyleven. Nolan Ryan 334 Win Shares 112 % ERA+ 324 Wins 292 Losses .525% HR/9 .53 WHIP 1.25 K/BB Ratio 2.04 4 "All Star" Seasons 5 "Below League" Seasons 27 years of service Blyleven 339 Win Shares 118% ERA+ 287 Wins 250 Losses .535% HR/9 .77 WHIP 1.20 K/BB Ratio 2.79 9 "All Star" Seasons 4 "Below League" Seasons 22 years of service I really don't see the argument for Nolan Ryan's greatness apart from the strikeouts. And if strikeouts are so important, why can't Blyleven get in (he has 3,701)? Ryan was not a big winner. A lot of people have argued that his teams sabotaged him and he would have won more playing on better teams. This just doesn't bear out. Ryan's record is very similar to other players with an ERA+ of 112%; he is about 19 victories short of expectation. HOWEVER: 1) Ryan was an unusually poor fielder. He had 90 career errors vs. 30 for Blyleven. 2) Ryan was one of the worst pitchers in the history of baseball at holding runners. In my opinion, those two factors could easily account for the extra loss per season. Hell, I have seen games where Ryan walked the winning run, let him steal second and then score on a dinky single. Ryan's record is the record he earned. He is not better than his numbers show. He is an excellent pitcher, but he is definitely in a lower tier after guys like Seaver, Gibson, etc. Notes: I am defining an "All Star" season as 20 Win Shares or more. "Below League" means an ERA worse than the league. Last edited by wyvern37 : 05-13-2002 at 02:17 PM.

05-13-2002, 03:01 PM	#4
wyvern37 Membership Revoked 9/11/02 Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 58	The question is: Do you take Ryan if it means Blyleven doesn't get in? Also, how does Blyleven do in RSAA? Last edited by wyvern37 : 05-13-2002 at 03:05 PM.

05-13-2002, 04:27 PM	#12
KCBOOMER NetShrine All-Century Team Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Home of the T-Bones Posts: 11,116	We have done this before. If you want Blyleven then picking on Ryan is crazy. The strike out thing is big. It is one of the premier pitching records in baseball. Ryan had 2000 more strikeouts than Blyleven and only pitched an extra 430 innings to get it. The no-hitters are a big deal. They may be a statistical oddity but Ryan has 7 has Blyleven has ZERO. Being popular, unfortunately does matter. Certainly Ryan is more popular than Bert (though Bert is not unpopular) but the K's and no-no's far outweigh that factor. No one seriously considers Nolan Ryan a first tier HoFer, but he is an HoFer. If he is not just look at where you set the bar for the next pitcher who wants to get into the HoF. __________________ KCBOOMER *Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball* Last edited by KCBOOMER : 05-14-2002 at 11:06 AM.

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05-13-2002, 02:21 PM	#2
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	Ryan's Support Neutral record was 336-280, according to Lee, so that's 12 extra wins. He had two fab seasons, 1977 and 1987, sabotaged by his team. And I don't consider his defense or inability to hold runners as a detriment to his pitching. According to Lee, he had four complete seasons where he was a minus in RSAA, as opposed to six where he was over 20 RSAA. Blyleven also could have won more with more support. I do think some pitchers and players should come off Cooperstown's wall, but Ryan isn't one of them.

05-13-2002, 02:25 PM	#3
calexpat All-NetShrine Team Member Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: New Haven, CT Posts: 448	Don't I get the distinct feeling this is familiar ground?

05-13-2002, 03:06 PM	#5
JamesI Netshrine Vacuum Cleaner Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Potsdam, N.Y. Posts: 3,723	I think Ryan is overrated, and Blyleven underrated. I think Nolan is overall the better pitcher, but both are at least marginal hall candidates. If Nolan is a first ballot hall of famer, Blyleven should eventually get in.

05-13-2002, 03:20 PM	#8
wyvern37 Membership Revoked 9/11/02 Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 58	I am not sure that I want them to kick Ryan out. (If that were even possible.) It just frustrates me when deserving players like Blyleven, Carter and Whitaker can't get in because they are "marginal". Meanwhile, another player of equal value gets in on the first ballot because he has some unusual distinction which has minimal impact on his career value (i.e. lots of Ks.)

05-13-2002, 03:31 PM	#9
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	Check the rest of the HOF threads here. You'll feel like you're in good company.

05-13-2002, 03:32 PM	#10
poorme Guest Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: washington dc Posts: 2,625	Most people here believe that Hall of Fame enshrinement should only be based on statistics. However, I think Ryan's incredible popularity plays a roll. He was hugely popular, bringing extra fans to the park with every start. The guy had "star appeal". Burt Blyleven did not. And don't fool yourself, this is an entertainment business first, a sport second.

05-13-2002, 04:31 PM	#13
wyvern37 Membership Revoked 9/11/02 Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 58	So does that mean that David Wells gets in based on his cult status? How about Jim Abbott? If it is based on star appeal, we should be debating whether Jim Abbott get in before Jim Morris. Even though it is called the Hall of FAME, people understand that these are supposed to be the best-performing players.

05-13-2002, 05:34 PM	#14
sweaver Netshrine Cleanup Hitter Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: The Mountain State Posts: 8,883	In my book, both Ryan and Blyleven are Hall-worthy.

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