Pitcher Abuse

[cubfan33]

Side note: 100th post!

I'm sure someone will know how to do this ... Im curious to find out if there's any correlation between a high pitch count start and going on the DL in the next X number of days. I know both Pettitte and Marquis went over 120 just before hitting the DL.

If anyone has data on this or the free time to do it, I think the results would be very interesting.

[SmedIndy]

I don't think it's X number of days to the DL. I think it may be better measured as ineffectiveness in the next 3-6-12 months after a period of overwork.

[cubfan33]

Agreed, Smed, but how do you measure that?

[gyb13]

the BP guys use PAP (pitcher abuse points), which are the best I've seen.....

[Slippery Pedro]

A notion I hear often lately is that it's not the number of pitches sometimes, but the pressure behind each pitch - - -

this theory being that -

it's tougher on a pitcher who throws 102 pitches in 9 innings in a 1-0 win than it is on one who throws 115 pitches in 7 innings in a 10-5 win.

Maybe I can see this - assuming both pitchers have "average" stuff? Personally, if the Big Unit throws 102 pitches in a 1-0 CG win, I would think that's almost like a day off for him.

The key for me is pitch count delta - Unit always throws 110-130, so, hitting that number is no biggie for him - his arm is trained for that. It's the guy who usually goes 90-110 who gets pushed to 125+ that's at risk, IMHO.

[cubfan33]

The pitch count delta is a new one on me ... I'll have to look for that. I have looked at pitches per batter faced as one measure, but haven't done a big enough sample to find out how well it works. While it would favor the control freaks like Maddux, it would probably favor extreme groundies that use their defense as well.

This is probably worth a thread on "alternate, untested statistics." I just have to remember to switch to the right forum! Doh!

[poorme]

Originally posted by cubfan33
The pitch count delta is a new one on me ... I'll have to look for that.

I would assume Slip is referring to pitches above a pitchers average, or some type of standard deviation.

[Slippery Pedro]

Originally posted by poorme
I would assume Slip is referring to pitches above a pitchers average, or some type of standard deviation.

Yup - just to clarify 'tho - pitches above THAT pitchers average, or some type of standard deviation. Not to be confused with the average of all pitchers.

[TGwynn19]

Slip,

Is the 'delta' your own metric or someone else's? Is it tracked and posted somewhere? I have never heard/seen it before.

[Skip]

Originally posted by Slippery Pedro
The key for me is pitch count delta - Unit always throws 110-130, so, hitting that number is no biggie for him - his arm is trained for that. It's the guy who usually goes 90-110 who gets pushed to 125+ that's at risk, IMHO.

The problem is with the pitcher who is consistently overused. He wont be above his average, but it is still too much, until ... poof ... bye bye.

[Slippery Pedro]

Dudes - I just thought it up on the fly. Could be used somewhere? Not sure. Probably - I'm never the first one to come up with an idea.

[Slippery Pedro]

Originally posted by Skip
The problem is with the pitcher who is consistently overused. He wont be above his average, but it is still too much, until ... poof ... bye bye.

Not sure - a pitcher who consistently throws 120+ would be a guy like Johnson or a younger Clemens - and, because they do it all the time, they can handle it.

You build strong muscles by using them.
It will rust out before it will wear out.
Something like that.

[SmedIndy]

Originally posted by Slippery Pedro


Not sure - a pitcher who consistently throws 120+ would be a guy like Johnson or a younger Clemens - and, because they do it all the time, they can handle it.

You build strong muscles by using them.
It will rust out before it will wear out.
Something like that.

I think it's a matter of genetics. Clemens had some arm issues early in his career due to overuse by the U of Texas.

House and Wright thought it was overuse before age 25 that was the killer.

RJ didn't pitch much until he was older than 25 because he was so wild no manager could keep him in for long.

[calexpat]

I got interested in this issue a couple weeks ago--I kept hearing it mentioned in stathead circles, but couldn't find any evidence for it. I finally wrote a letter to Keith Woolner, and he referred me to some articles in BP 2001, which I don't have. Here's my exchange with Woolner:


I'd suggest that you read my two research articles in Baseball Prospectus
2001, which introduces a revised PAP method (PAP^3), than is demonstrated to
correlate with both short-term declines in effectiveness, and long-term
injury risk. This new PAP system is what BP has been using since last year.

At 01:01 PM 4/30/2002 -0400, you wrote:
>Dear Mr. Woolner,
>
>I'm intrigued by the concept of Pitcher Abuse Points, but I'm still
>waiting to see the evidence that it's an effective predictor of reduced
>performance and/or arm trouble. Can you refer me to evidence for this?
>
>I notice that Rany's 1998 article introducing the PAP statistic made no
>attempt to find correlations between PAP and performance or arm trouble:
>http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ne...jazayerli.html
>Rany did make some future predictions. He predicted that Livan
>Hernandez and Bartolo Colon were the two young starting pitchers most
>likely to go down to arm trouble. As it turns out, Livan and Bartolo were
>both Opening Day starters in 2002, having started 30 or more games
>consistently since 1998, and having essentially performed consistently all
>the way through, though Livan had an especially good year in 2000 followed
>by a bad year in 2001.
>
>Thanks

[SmedIndy]

Matt Morris has thrown 126 pitches today.

Wonder if he'll break down again?