Who Would You Pick?

[BuzzBuzzard]

[QUOTEBack to the question posed in this thread: Assuming that the (inherently-seasonally-adjusted, though for-now-mythical) Wins Created Differential was relatively accurate, wouldn't it make sense (if you had only one pick) to choose the player (regardless of whether a position player *OR* pitcher) who had the highest WCD? [/quote]
No, because I still can't resolve taking a 30 game player over a 162 game player. Goes back to my point on the WCD. Seasonally adjusting a pitcher's WCD is bogus. They can't pitch every day.

[jpalexa]

Okay, you're *still* not getting the WCD. It represents a player's SEASON-LONG contribution to the team.

Say a pitcher -- who plays every fifth day -- produces a WCD (for the SEASON) of ~8.
Now, say a hitter -- who plays every day -- produces a WCD (again, for the SEASON) of ~5.

Wouldn't you want the pitcher? After all, that pitcher would win you 3 games more over the course of the season than the hitter.

If you *still* insist on taking the everyday player whose season-long contribution is 3 wins fewer than the pitcher, then I certainly hope your fantasy team is in the same division as mine!

[BuzzBuzzard]

You are correct and I am still not getting it. I thought that what you are suggesting is that the WCD assumes all players, pitchers included, play 162 games. Is that not the case?

If it is the case, I go back to my original argument. Giving a pitcher a WCD extrapolated to 162 games is fantasy enough for me and I wish you luck as a GM. I hope you are a team in my real-life division. I can't wait to read your quotes. "Yeah, we're 30 games out, but just think how good we would be is my ace could go every day."

If not, I find it hard to believe that a pitcher would have best WCD in all of baseball given that he plays in only 31 games (at best).

[NetShrine]

WCD still sounds like a Vince McMahnon (sic?) creation to me - - - are they any hoochie mammas involved?

Do me a slice fellas, enough with the mythical stuff - - - there's no D&D in baseball.

[jpalexa]

One more time, with small words only.

Pedro Martinez has a *real* WCD of ~8. The gist of the formula is the difference in the number of Runs Allowed by Pedro vs. the difference in the number of Runs Allowed by a "league average" pitcher. After dividing the team's Runs Allowed into the number of wins, you basically get how many wins over average a pitcher won for you over the course of the whole season. This is the WCD for pitchers. In Pedro's case, it means he won 8 more games over the course of the season than would have an average pitcher. For example, Pedro goes 25-5 while the "average" pitcher goes 17-13. This is over the normal course of the pitching rotation; not if Pedro pitched 162 times.

Derek Jeter has a WCD of ~4. The gist of *this* formula is the number of Runs Created by Jeter compared to the number of Runs Created by an "average" shortstop. Connect the Runs Created to team wins, and it shows that Jeter provided enough runs to product 4 more wins over the course of the season than would have an average pitcher.

This means -- all other 24 players being equal, that a team with Pedro pitching every fifth day wins 4 more games a season than with Jeter playing short every day.

What's not to get? Just because you cannot accept that a pitcher's season worth is 8 wins above average doesn't make it not so.

If you want to be bored with the actual formulas, I'll be happy to post them.

[NetShrine]

JP - - I think your summary says it all - - - and, this brings the thread to a close.

If anyone wants to reopen it, please PM me with the reason. Thanks.