Why not? My 2002 predictions

[nyy26wc]

WHY NOT? MY 2002 PREDICTIONS

I usually wait until the day before the season starts to write this, but why not get it over with and do it now. Also, maybe after some people get out of the hospital from laughing pains, they'll decide to join the predictions contest.

One of the easiest ways to make a fool out of yourself is to attempt to predict a baseball season. Over the past couple of decades, I've tried all sort of ways to make picks. I've tried in depth analysis. I've tried playing hunches. Neither method has proven to be more successful than the other.

I've realized that obsessing over making picks is counterproductive. I've realized that way too many things happen between Opening Day and the end of the season that can not be predicted. So, last like last year, I'm just going with the "why not" method of making picks. It's not that much different from the hunches method, OK it's not different at all, but at least I like its name better.

This year, I'm going to see what happens when I combine sometimes being serious with an occasional idiosyncratic, or even ridiculous, selection.

This year, I'll also limit the amount of commentary. Contrary to what critics think, I don't set out to see how many stupid comments I can make.

AL East--Yankees, BlueJays, Redsox, Orioles, Devil Rays

The Yankees will run away with things.

Last year, I picked the BlueJays over the Redsox, for 2nd place, and it didn't work. Should I try it again? Why not.

I'd like to pick both the Orioles and Devil Rays to finish last. But, I can't. So, why keeping Tampa Bay in the cellar? Why not.

AL Central--Whitesox, Indians, Twins, Royals, Tigers

I wish I could drop the Indians farther down than 2nd, but don't think the Twins will finish ahead of them.

AL West--A's, Mariners, Rangers, Angels

I've gone back and forth on the A's and Mariners a bunch of times. Why take the A's? You guessed it--why not.

NL East--Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Mets, Expos

I can't figure out whether I want to pick the Marlins or Phillies for 2nd. I'm having such a hard time that I just flip flopped those teams several times in deciding which one to put there.

So, I decided to defer to my dog. I put out 2 Pepperidge Farm goldfish, one representing each team. He ate the Phillies one first. So why not put them 2nd.

I guarantee I'll be accused of being an anti Mets bigot, but I deny that has anything to do with putting them 4th. Even their offseason acquisitions aren't going to be enough to raise their offense to respectability and their pitching is a great bet to fall apart.

NL Central--Cardinals, Astros, Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Pirates

I went back and forth so many times on the Astros and Cardinals that I have given up on trying to pick their order. I went straight to the Syracuse method.

NL West--Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Dodgers, Rockies

It's easy to see a scenario where the Giants offense falls apart. Barry Bonds drops from his record 173 RCAA to a still superhuman, but still a dropoff, 100 RCAA, and Rich Aurilia, whose career high in RCAA (excluding a 19 game small sample size in 1995) was just 1, drops from 49 to something like 10. Jeff Kent's hand bugs him enough to have his 34 RCAA cut in half. That things could make the Giants a threat to finish last in the league in runs.

Why should I ignore that possibility? Why not.

POSTSEASON, assuming it is played--

The Yankees have won the past 2 AL pennants despite not being the best team in the league. They will not make it 3 in a row.

Instead, the Yankees will win the pennant after being the best team.

In the NL, I'm going to rely on the Curses of Lee.

Starting in 1997, I've correctly picked the NL Champion once. That was the 1998 Padres. While I did jump off their bandwagon after the Astros acquired Randy Johnson, and picked Houston to win when the playoffs started, I did pick the Padres at the start of the season.

The 1999 Cardinals and 2000 Astros were so devastated by the Curse of Lee that they finished 75-86 and 72-90, respectively. The 2001 Cardinals were at least able to get into the postseason, before losing in the Division Series.

I have good news for Cardinals and Astros fans. First, let say that, even though the best team doesn't always win in the postseason, I do pick whatever team I think is the best to win.

I think either the Cardinals or Astros are the best team in the NL. So, I should be picking one of them to win.

Or, I should at least find out whether the Curse of Lee extends to when I allow Syracuse to make the pick for me.

But, I'm going to try something new. I'm going to try to get some productive use out of my curse.

While I still insist that my hatred for the Mets had nothing to do with me picking them for 4th place, I will put my curse to good use by ensuring their demise.

So, I officially pick the Mets to win the NL pennant, even though I do not backtrack in any way from that 4th place pick.

I am aware that this is an impossible contradiction. But, to quote Ruthie, from 7th Heaven, "Quit trying to confuse me with facts."

I'm also picking the Yankees to win the World Series.

Meanwhile, I also have the ability to ruin pitchers' careers or seasons. Ron Guidry, Orel Hershiser, Mario Soto, Dave Stieb, Ted Higuera, Fernando Valenzuela, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez and Jose Rijo have been injured or dropped to .500 or below right after I picked them to win the Cy Young Award.

I'll be nice and resist the temptation to see if I could ruin a second consecutive year for Pedro Martinez. I'll even be nice to the entire American League and pass on cursing anyone.

But, just to see if I can have some fun adding another victim to my list, I'm picking Al Leiter to win the NL Cy Young Award.


Do you think you can come up with a better set of picks than this? Let's see if you're right.

I'm still taking entries for the predictions contest. So far, I have 60 entries and let's see how many more I can get.

[Fritz Buelow]

A's, Yanks, Cards and Braves seem to be the popular picks. I think they were the ones all the USAT BBW writers were choosing too. (Lee, please don't get insulted. )

[Duque]

Does Lee do MVP picks?

Mike Piazza and Mo Vaughn to split the NL MVP?

[b-ball-lunachik]

LOL, Lee -- I didn't expect this post to be so funny!!

Do you think the Mariners will take the wild card spot in the AL West?

[b-ball-lunachik]

Originally posted by Duque


Mike Piazza and Mo Vaughn to split the NL MVP?

Andy -- I know you were joking here but I would love nothing better than for Mo to win the NL MVP...I love that guy -- right before the Piazza beaning last night, I was flipping around while I was on the phone and saw Mo make an awesome diving play down the line too...he almost looked cat-like if I dare say it!!

[Duque]

Originally posted by b-ball-lunachik


Andy -- I know you were joking here but I would love nothing better than for Mo to win the NL MVP...I love that guy -- right before the Piazza beaning last night, I was flipping around while I was on the phone and saw Mo make an awesome diving play down the line too...he almost looked cat-like if I dare say it!!

Then you'll love this article:

http://www.spitter.com/

[gyb13]

Originally posted by b-ball-lunachik
he almost looked cat-like if I dare say it!!

he will look cat-like this season...as in...as slow as Galarraga...

[lgkeeper]

I'm very proud to make my first post about the Mets and, without trying to knock anyone for their opinions, show how wrong this initial post was.
The following is a break down of what the Mets lost and who will replace them at each position. I believe it shows that, barring a Malaria epidemic in the clubhouse, this team has to improve over last year's 2nd place finish, not DROP 2 places in the NL East.

C - Piazza, same

1B- Zeile-->Vaughn
Their second biggest upgrade. Vaughn was discounted after the injury. Don't forget, this guy won an MVP and was (and may be again) one of the most complete hitters in the game during his prime.

2B-esentially Ventura-->Alomar
Yeah, this is a major upgrade. Don't even tell me that this isn't the biggest pickup (maybe Giambi) in the offseason. Ventura is a waste of space and Alomar is a Hall of...er...immotal.

SS/3B - Alfonzo, Ordonez, same

LF-Shinjo-->Cedeno
We get added speed and increased average though we lose a lot in fielding. Cedeno is a 50 SB threat and a .300 hitter. Again, an upgrade.

CF-Payton, same

RF-Lawton-->Burnitz
Burnitz, though he has a low avg and high SO, he's another big-bopper in the lineup, a potential 35 HR guy.

Rotation -
Leiter, Trachsel same (though Leiter had an off year and Trachsel was one of the best 2nd half pitchers in baseball)

Appier-->Asatcio
I believe this is about even though some would say that Appier is more consistent

Reed-->Estes
The way Reed has pitched lately, I'd much rater have Estes. If he returns to the form he had 2 years ago, it could be a great move

Chen-->D'Amico
Again, a push. D'Amico was injured last year, but is an average pitcher when healthy.

Bullpen is similar to last year without the depth. Chen moving to the pen and Weathers along with Guthrie are good additions. I'm please with the pen.

All this means, well, they'll still probably be chasing the Braves. But to say the Phills and Fish have a better shot is, in my opinion, silly.
Just my opinion, though, and everyone is entitled to one...even Yankee Fans.

[gyb13]

See this thread on the Mets improvement

[RichG]

lgkeeper,

Welcome to the forum.

That's why I find the preseason so much fun. No one ever thinks a player will regress, only improve.

I know better with my favorite team. Even if we improve we're still bad

[nyy26wc]

Originally posted by Duque
Does Lee do MVP picks?

I'll take J.D. Drew for NL MVP. But, I'm picking Bonds to win another Babe Ruth Award.

Meanwhile, I'll take Jason Giambi for both the AL MVP and the Babe Ruth Award. If he does that, he'll become just the 4th player in the past 20 years to win both awards in the same season. The only others were Robin Yount (1982), Rickey Henderson (1990) and Frank Thomas (1994).

[nyy26wc]

Originally posted by b-ball-lunachik
LOL, Lee -- I didn't expect this post to be so funny!!

Do you think the Mariners will take the wild card spot in the AL West?

Yes

[nyy26wc]

The response rate for this year's predictions contest has been excellent and there's still time to join. The nutshell version of the rules--just email me your picks, for each division, from first to last. No need for postseason picks or wild cards, but if you want to include them. If you want to include a little commentary, feel free to do so. I'll read what you have to say.

There are prizes for winning the contest, for finishing 2nd, for being in the lead at the end of a month and for beating my score. But, I'll add more incentive to join the contest.

Anyone who enters the contest is entitled to a 10% discount off the sabermetric baseball encyclopedia, valid for the first week of the season. If you already have a copy, it's too late to give you that discount off this year's edition. But, I'll compromise. I'll give you an extra 10% off the next edition, which will be added to the upgrade discount. Then, if you beat my score, you hit the jackpot--you get the upgrade discount, you get the beating my score discount added to that and you'll get this year's discount applied to the next edition. But, I'm putting the onus on you to take the initiative to tell me you want to exercise your right to have that discount transferred to the next edition.

You will receive the special contest discount URL when the deadline for entering the contest hits and I send all of the contestants their confirmation message that they're in the contest. I'll also remind everyone in Tuesday's report that the confirmation message was already sent. Then, if you didn't get the message, it means your email message and picks aren't in the spreadsheet and you can then let me know I have to fix that oversight.

If there's anyone who just can't wait to get that contest URL, let me know and I'll set up the page earlier and let you know its URL.