Lopes & Young - Runnin' Wild

[Xanadu Dragon]

I find Lopes' comments kinda/sorta interesting - - considering his beef with Rickey in the past about stealing, just for the sake of running up steal totals. Wonder how Lopes will react when someone does what he did? Perhaps, if EY is going for the record and swipes a bag when the Brewers are beating the Padres 13-1, Bruce Bochy should run on the field and threaten Young (the way Lopes did Rickey)?

Young Out to Break Stolen Base Mark
By ARNIE STAPLETON
.c The Associated Press

PHOENIX (AP) - When second baseman Eric Young signed with the Milwaukee Brewers last month, he had two questions.

``The first thing he said was, 'What's the stolen base record on this club?''' general manager Dean Taylor recalled. ``And when he was told it was 54, he said, 'I'm going to break it.'''

Then, Young looked at manager Davey Lopes and said, ``I've got the green light, right?''

You bet, Lopes said.

The Brewers haven't had a legitimate base-stealer atop their lineup in a decade, ever since Pat Listach set the club stolen base record as a rookie in 1992.

Not coincidentally, that's the last time the Brewers posted a winning record.

Milwaukee has had Darryl Hamilton, Fernando Vina, Marquis Grissom and Ronnie Belliard as their leadoff hitters in the nine Opening Days since.

After becoming the first club in major league history to record more strikeouts than hits last year, the Brewers set out to add speed and contact to their lineup.

They signed Young and acquired Alex Ochoa in a three-way deal with the Mets and Rockies that sent Jeromy Burnitz to New York.

At 34, Young no longer lives up to his name, but he brings veteran leadership and his 31 steals last year for the Chicago Cubs were way more than any of the Brewers, who were led by Devon White's 18 stolen bases.

Of the players returning this year, Alex Sanchez's six steals are tops.

Young could match that number with a nice week.

Lopes, who stole 557 bases in his 16-year playing career, wanted a player with a similar passion to ignite his offense, and he found him in Young, who has 377 career steals, including a career-best 54 in 2000.

``Fifty-four is my career high, so why not shoot for that and break the team record in the process?'' Young said.

The Brewers hope they've ditched their all-or-nothing offense with Young and Ochoa. Also, speedy outfielder Jeffrey Hammonds is back from a shoulder injury that limited him to 49 games last year.

``Don't misunderstand and all of a sudden think we're like jackrabbits,'' Lopes said. ``We're not a jackrabbit team. But we have some guys who can do some things that we didn't have last year and that's where EY comes in. EY will be doing most of the base stealing.''

New first base coach Dave Collins, who had 395 swipes in his playing career, said Young's exploits should rub off on his teammates, making them all better on the base paths.

``You don't have to have great speed, but you have to run full speed and there's a difference,'' Collins said. ``When you hit a single, you have to be thinking double.''

Young said he chose the Brewers over other suitors for the chance to work with Lopes and Collins: ``I'll tell you what, they were two smart base runners in their day.''

Young also was enticed by the challenge, he said.

``Milwaukee hasn't been known as an aggressive team running the bases. My thing is stealing bases,'' Young said. ``When Davey was a player, he was an aggressive type of leadoff hitter. I fit that mold. Davey ran when he wanted to and was a very smart base runner. Dave Collins is very smart.

``This is the first time I'm having a manager and a coach around me that know a little more about stealing bases than I do. And that's going to help me out tremendously.''

[KCBOOMER]

And how many 34 year old have stole 54 or more bases? I don't know but it isn't many, particularly, if you add the qualifier and set a new career high.

[Xanadu Dragon]

Originally posted by KCBOOMER
And how many 34 year old have stole 54 or more bases?

Brock had 118 when he was 35. But, to answer your Q - about 6 guys since 1900.

[SmedIndy]

Dear EY -

You have to get on base in order to steal bases.

Signed,

Cubs Fan

PS - Are you going to be the second coming of Chuckie Carr? Does Eric hack 3-1?

Davey Lopes stole 47 bases at age 40.

Originally posted by SmedIndy
Dear EY -

You have to get on base in order to steal bases.

Signed,

Cubs Fan

PS - Are you going to be the second coming of Chuckie Carr? Does Eric hack 3-1?

Young is actually a pretty disciplined hitter. He doesn't swing at a lot of bad pitches. His career OBP is .365 and has never struck out more than 54 times.

He doesn't walk as much as he used to because, as I've said before, the new strike zone has cut walks league-wide quite a bit, and leadoff hitters with no power most of all.

[Xanadu Dragon]

I think 50 steals should be easy, at least easier than it is (based on the few that actually do it) - - if you have the speed, are a good runner, and can get on base enough.

Say you get 550 PA in a season and have a .365 OBA. That's 200 times on base. Most likely, 125 (min) of those 200 are a single or a walk.

Keeping it going, the 125 means you're on 1B about 5 times a week, minimum.

If you tried to steal 3 out of those 5 times, and were successful two-thirds of the time, you would have 50 steals for the year.

I think steals are going to make something of a comeback.

With all of the home runs, it's naturally fallen out of favor, but the result of that is there are a lot of pitchers these days who don't remember what it was like when Rickey and Coleman were stealing 100 bases a year and can't hold guys on. You have almost a solid decade of teams choosing catchers who can hit homers but don't have great arms.

The two biggest surprise teams last year, the Mariners and Phillies, led their leagues in steals, and the Twins stole 146 bases. The Yankees were only eighth in OPS but they were second in steals and thus, fifth in runs scored.

[gyb13]

Considering MIL now has no one (but Sexson) who can hit the long ball, Lopes will probably be playing small-ball all the way and EY might end up with a season similar to 96 or 99 - about 50 steals but also about 20 CS.

[SmedIndy]

Originally posted by Baudib


Young is actually a pretty disciplined hitter. He doesn't swing at a lot of bad pitches. His career OBP is .365 and has never struck out more than 54 times.

He doesn't walk as much as he used to because, as I've said before, the new strike zone has cut walks league-wide quite a bit, and leadoff hitters with no power most of all.

If you saw him last year, you'd realize he totally abandoned looking at pitches and just swang for the hell of it.

He wasn't a victim of the new strike zone; he was a victim of his own bad self.

[SmedIndy]

Originally posted by Baudib

The Yankees were only eighth in OPS but they were second in steals and thus, fifth in runs scored.

It's dangerous to put that "thus" in there, because I'm not convinced of a direct correlation between the two. The Yanks were also fourth in homers, THAT may have had something to do with them being fifth in runs scored.

[SmedIndy]

Originally posted by Xanadu Dragon
I
If you tried to steal 3 out of those 5 times, and were successful two-thirds of the time, you would have 50 steals for the year.

And you wouldn't be helping the team because you'd be out 1/3 of the time, killing a potential rally. Isn't the figure a 70 or 75 percent success rate when you start to help the team by stealing?

Originally posted by SmedIndy


It's dangerous to put that "thus" in there, because I'm not convinced of a direct correlation between the two. The Yanks were also fourth in homers, THAT may have had something to do with them being fifth in runs scored.

More stolen bases = more runs than you would have scored without them.

The Yanks were fifth in homers but only 10th in doubles and last in triples...seventh in slugging overall.

Same thing with the M's...they were behind Oakland in Cleveland in OPS, and waaay behind in homers but they outscored both of those teams by 30-37 runs.

[Xanadu Dragon]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
Isn't the figure a 70 or 75 percent success rate when you start to help the team by stealing?

Agreed. But, we were talking about EY and the Brewers. Not exactly a formula with winning on the right side of the equal sign.

The break-even point for steals is highly dependent on the situation.

Bottom of the seventh, two outs, tie game, runner at first, Rey Ordonez up and a pinch-hitter due for the pitcher...a stolen base attempt with only a 30 percent chance of success is probably worth the risk.

Barry Bonds at the plate...don't run, even with 100 percent chance of success.