ATM report--Yankees make a stupid signing

[nyy26wc]

1) The Yankees re-signed C Jorge Posada to a 5 year, $51 million contract, with a team option for 2007. Posada also gets the option to void the contract after 3 years.

This could be a good signing for the Yankees, but that's only if he turns out to be one of those fluke catchers who is better in his 30s than his 20s. So far, the historical list includes such players as Darren Daulton and ... um, uh, players like ... let's see, I'll have to get back to you in case I think of another one.

Posada had a big season in 2000, with a .943 OPS and 36 RCAA. He hit .475 SLG, .363 OBA, .838 OPS, 12 RCAA, .572 OWP, 5.97 RC/G, 82 RC in 138 games in 2001. Those are the only instances in which he's had a double digit RCAA.

It's theoretically possible that Posada could turn into a consistent $10 million a year player and do so after turning 30. We know it's possible for a player to hit 2 grand slams in an inning, it's possible for a hitter to hit in 56 consecutive games, it's possible for a pitcher to pitch back to back no hitter, it's possible for the BBWAA to actually correctly figure out who the NL MVP is. So, historical flukes do happen.

But, to gamble $51 million on the chance that a fluke will happen? That's a bad bet.

I like Posada. But, this signing has stupidity award all over it.

2) There is a good discussion on abusing young pitchers, located at Netshrine's discussion boards, at http://www.netshrine.com/vbulletin2/...&threadid=2092

[Xanadu Dragon]

Lee - thanks for the plug - - lots of Guests visiting the boards today............now, if only they would join us!

[Xanadu Dragon]

Originally posted by nyy26wc
This could be a good signing for the Yankees, but that's only if he turns out to be one of those fluke catchers who is better in his 30s than his 20s. So far, the historical list includes such players as Darren Daulton and ... um, uh, players like ... let's see, I'll have to get back to you in case I think of another one.

Mickey Tettleton comes to mind - but, he was moved from behind the plate when he was 32. At the plate, Posada does remind me some of him.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Posada has more defensive value than Tettleton, although Tettleton had more HR power.

All baseball salaries are riduculous; no exceptions! That being said, so often a player gets a contract viewed as outrageous and inflationary at the time it is signed, but a fair rate, even a bargain, before the term of the contract is half up. Baseball salaries are outpacing inflation. Assuming Posada stays around his current level of ability, his contract may not appear so unreasonable by the time year three comes around.

[gyb13]

Interestingly enough:

Offense:
J.Posada .465 career slg, .527 career hi slg, 28 career high HR
Tettleton .449 career slg, .510 career hi slg, 32 career high HR

Yes, Tettleton's power was more notable due to the age when he was playing. For example, when Tettleton was 28 (1989), the lgSLG was .384. When Posada was 28 (2000), the lgSLG was .443. But in absolute terms, Tettleton wasn't more of a power threat than Posada is now.

Defense:
J.Posada .992 FP vs .991 lg FP, 6.94 RF vs 6.35 lg RF
Tettleton .991 FP vs .989 lg FP, 4.96 RF vs 5.32 lg RF

As bad as Posada has been at times, Tettleton was even worse as a defensive catcher. Also, Tettleton only caught more than 100 gms in a season twice, while Posada has already accomplished that the past 3 yrs (almost 4 - he caught 99 gms in 98).