strike zone, power pitchers and leadoff guys

Continuing a theme from a previous thread:

The strike zone changed last year. This changed....everything.

Thirteen pitchers won 15 games or more for the first time in 2001. This is a remarkably high total; compare to 2000, when only four pitchers hit that mark for the first time.
Almost all of these pitchers, except Robert Person and Paul Abbott, were young pitchers. All of them except Abbott and Joe Mays are strikeout pitchers.

In addition to this:
Randy Johnson set a career high in strikeouts, as did countless other pitchers.
Curt Schilling had a career year, with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 293-39.
Roy Oswalt didn't win 15, but he went 14-3 with 144 strikeouts, just 24 walks. Not bad for a rookie.
Kerry Wood appeared fully recovered from surgery and struck out 217 men in 174 innings.
36-year-old journeyman John Burkett struck out 187 men, besting his previous career high by 32.

Other than the Ichiro and Bonds, this was the story of the year, of course: All of a sudden, there were bushels of great young pitchers, Sabathia, Morris, Mulder, Buehrle, et al.

The last time so many young pitchers all got their act together in one year was 1988 (Cone 20-3, Jackson 22-7, Rijo ERA goes from 5.90 to 2.39, etc.), which also was the last time they tinkered with the strike zone.

What this meant on the other side of the ball is that runs were down by .3 a game in the NL, .44 in the AL. The last time there was a drop that big in both leagues was 1988. While homers were only down slightly, walks dropped dramatically, half a walk per game in both leagues. This was the largest drop in walks per game in the AL since 1956, the largest in the NL since 1971.

Along with a decline in batting average, the on-base percentages dropped precipitously. The NL went from .342 to .331, the AL .349 to .333. 11-16 points in OBP isn't much for a player; for a league, it is huge, almost unprecedented.

Not all walks are created equal, and not all walkers are either. With the high strike, pitchers quickly learned they could throw a 89-mph fastball chest-high past Chuck Knoblauch, but they don't throw that pitch to Barry Bonds.

Thus, while many power hitters (Bonds, Sosa, Giambi) enjoyed huge years and continued to walk at pre-2001 rates, the little guys -- guys pitchers DO NOT want to walk -- had miserable years: Knoblauch, Lofton, Damon, Furcal, Goodwin, Anderson all had horrendous seasons, some seeing their walk rates drop 50 percent. NL leadoff hitters saw their OBP drop 17 points. In the AL, the dropoff was 19 points, and really, it was much worse than that, as only Ichiro, who was the best leadoff hitter in the league by a huge margin, prevented a league-wide drop of 20-25 points.

Three hitting philosophies have dominated the 1990s: 1. Little guys who work the pitcher for a walk, followed by 2. Guys who wait out the pitcher to get a fat 3-1 pitch or 3. Guys who swing hard at everything.
With more power pitchers, and more pitchers throwing strikes, all of these philosophies lead to more strikeouts, lower averages, lower on-base percentages, except for a few guys under No. 2 (Bonds).
The 1970s through 2000 saw many great leadoff hitters; in fact, most of the best leadoff hitters in history played during this time: Rose, Henderson, Raines, Molitor, Butler, Dykstra. With the ever-shrinking strike zone, it was easier for these guys to dominate the game.

Now, as I see it, there are two keys to getting on base:
1. Hit 40+ homers. Pitchers will gladly put you on base via walk 80-100 times a year.
2. Swing at everything, because you're not going to be able to work for a walk, and more importantly, make contact.

Three of the most improved teams in baseball last year, the Phillies (Rollins), Mariners (Suzuki), and the Twins (Guzman) had leadoff hitters who exemplify No. 2. The other most-improved teams, Diamondbacks (Gonzalez), Astros (Bagwell, Berkman) and A's (Giambi) have power-hitters who fit into category No. 1.
The best mix of both was the Cardinals, with power-hitters (Edmonds, Drew, Pujols, McGwire) and contact-hitters who hit .300 (Vina, Polanco, Robinson).

[Xanadu Dragon]

If you look at the leaders from last year in OBA (400+PA) who had 75 or more walks, I think it backs you up - - sans Alomar, it's mostly "power" hitters on the high end.

OBA OBA BB
1 Barry Bonds .515 177
2 Jason Giambi .477 129
3 Larry Walker .449 82
4 Sammy Sosa .437 116
5 Todd Helton .432 98
6 Lance Berkman .430 92
7 Luis Gonzalez .429 100
8 Chipper Jones .427 98
9 Edgar Martinez .423 93
10 Gary Sheffield .417 94
11 Jim Thome .416 111
12 Roberto Alomar .415 80
13 Jim Edmonds .410 93
14 Carlos Delgado .408 111
15 Manny Ramirez .405 81
16 Brian Giles .404 90
17 John Olerud .401 94
18 Jeff Bagwell .397 106
19 Bernie Williams .395 78
20 Bobby Abreu .393 106
21 Ryan Klesko .384 88
22 Matt Lawton .382 85
23 Rafael Palmeiro .381 101
24 Trot Nixon .376 79
25 Ben Grieve .372 87
26 Frank Menechino .369 79
27 Troy Glaus .367 107
28 Bobby Higginson .367 80
29 Rickey Henderson .366 81
30 Tim Salmon .365 96
31 Robin Ventura .359 88
32 Jeromy Burnitz .347 80

[gyb13]

Originally posted by Xanadu Dragon
If you look at the leaders from last year in OBA (400+PA) who had 75 or more walks, I think it backs you up - - sans Alomar, it's mostly "power" hitters on the high end.

Steve, can you produce the same table for 99-2000 for comparison?

[Xanadu Dragon]

Originally posted by gyb13
Steve, can you produce the same table for 99-2000 for comparison?

Leaders from 1999-2000 in OBA (800+PA) who had 150 or more walks....................maybe Jeter won't be such a bad lead-off hitter?


OBA OBA BB
1 Manny Ramirez .449 182
2 Jason Giambi .448 242
3 Mark McGwire .443 209
4 Jeff Bagwell .439 256
5 Edgar Martinez .434 193
6 Bobby Abreu .431 209
7 Todd Helton .430 171
8 Derek Jeter .427 159
9 Frank Thomas .426 199
10 Brian Giles .425 209
11 Carlos Delgado .425 209
12 Chipper Jones .422 221
13 Gary Sheffield .422 202
14 Barry Bonds .419 190
15 Bernie Williams .414 171
16 Jim Thome .411 245
17 John Olerud .410 227
18 Rafael Palmeiro .408 200
19 Edgardo Alfonzo .404 180
20 Roberto Alomar .400 163
21 Jeff Kent .398 151
22 Rickey Henderson .396 170
23 David Justice .394 171
24 Tim Salmon .392 167
25 Mark Grace .392 178
26 Alex Rodriguez .391 156
27 Brady Anderson .390 188
28 Fred McGriff .389 177
29 Omar Vizquel .387 152
30 Kenny Lofton .386 158
31 Sammy Sosa .386 169
32 Jorge Posada .385 160
33 Ken Griffey Jr. .385 185
34 Jeromy Burnitz .377 190
35 Shawn Green .375 156
36 Jose Offerman .375 166
37 Albert Belle .374 153
38 Troy Glaus .369 183
39 J.T. Snow .368 152
40 Jay Bell .362 152
41 Mike Cameron .361 158
42 Mark McLemore .358 164
43 Greg Vaughn .355 165
44 Matt Stairs .351 167

[SmedIndy]

Let me take a converse tack to this.

With the strike zone being called more carefully, the point should be to ENCOURAGE patience, not discourage it. You only play into the pitchers hand by hacking at everything.

More patience, a keener batting eye, encourage taking walks. That will separate you from the pack and help your team more.

And as a Cubs fan, I can tell you a key to getting Kerry Wood out of the game is to be patient and let him throw a lot of pitches. I think it was mostly serendipity that a lot of these pitchers took a step forward, not related to the strike zone. Many of these guys were talked about as prime prospects (Mulder, Buerhle, Sabathia, Oswalt) and not surprises in the least.

We don't need a league full of Tony Womacks or Shawon Dunstons.

[SmedIndy]

The 1970s through 2000 saw many great leadoff hitters; in fact, most of the best leadoff hitters in history played during this time: Rose, Henderson, Raines, Molitor, Butler, Dykstra. With the ever-shrinking strike zone, it was easier for these guys to dominate the game.

Of course, you know most of those guys were patient, or learned patience at the plate, especially when a lot of teams were leading off fast guys just because they were fast (i. e. Omar Moreno). Bowa used to lead off a lot because he stole bases. Willie Davis is a prime example of a low OBP leadoff guy put there because he had wheels.

And 1970-2000 is too broad, because the game of the 70's was so different than it is today.

The secret to getting the best offense is to get on base the most, it doesn't mean swinging at everything just to defeat a certain kind of pitcher. If walks are down, EVERYONEs walks will be down, and the team that has the most patience will probably get more runners on base and score more runs relative to the league than a bunch of hackers.

[gyb13]

Glancing over the two lists, I don't know if you could say there was a noticeable difference from 99-00 to 01 in the makeup of those players. Maybe if we took IBB's out of the equation?

[KCBOOMER]

I think it is pretty obvious that guys who look at a few pitches will end up with better pitches to hit than guys who just go up there hacking.

Mark Quinn, of the Royals, is a case in point. He will swing at anything within eyesight. Consequently he doesn't see many strikes. On the otherhand Mike Sweeney takes pitches and ends up swinging at better (for the hitter) pitches.

[Xanadu Dragon]

Originally posted by gyb13
Glancing over the two lists, I don't know if you could say there was a noticeable difference from 99-00 to 01 in the makeup of those players.

22 Rickey Henderson .396 170
29 Omar Vizquel .387 152
30 Kenny Lofton .386 158
36 Jose Offerman .375 166

made the 1999-2000 list - but, not the 2001 list.

[SmedIndy]

Boomer -

As a Royals fan, you probably think Muser loves to contact hitter type of guy. How many runs have the Royals scored over the past few years with the Rey Sanchez' of the world in there, hacking away and grounding to short.

Making contact is not the answer. Getting your pitch is the answer. A K is like a 6-3 in most situations.

[SmedIndy]

Originally posted by Xanadu Dragon


22 Rickey Henderson .396 170
29 Omar Vizquel .387 152
30 Kenny Lofton .386 158
36 Jose Offerman .375 166

made the 1999-2000 list - but, not the 2001 list.

It can be said that these guys fell off the truck in terms of production because they are older or didn't get the PT.

[sweaver]

To respond to an earlier comment, Jeter would be a terrific leadoff man. Of course, he would be successful anywhere in the lineup. He's a good hitter.

I think, if the strike zone continues to be called in a manner resembling the rule book definition, the result will be encourage a more conservative batting approach than the swing-from-the-heels-to-hit-a-homer method commonly employed now. The Tony Gwynn/Pete Rose model of making contact will begin to come back in vogue, hopefully with the added value of plate discipline both of those players showed.

And the game will be better for it.

[KCBOOMER]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
Boomer -

As a Royals fan, you probably think Muser loves to contact hitter type of guy. How many runs have the Royals scored over the past few years with the Rey Sanchez' of the world in there, hacking away and grounding to short.

Making contact is not the answer. Getting your pitch is the answer. A K is like a 6-3 in most situations.

Smed, I don't see how you read my post and come up with this reply. My entire comment was regarding being patient and getting your pitch. Mike Sweeney does this and Mark Quinn doesn't. I have no idea where you came up with the Rey Sanchez analogy.

If you don't like Muser as a manager, say so. You can join the chorus of 1.5M Kansas Citians who think the same thing.

I think it was blatantly obvious by watching baseball last year that the stud pitchers could blow away the little guys pretty much at will. These are probably the guys who had benefited from the shrinking strike zone more than anyone the past 15 years.

Being patient is great. But there's a guy named Greg Maddux who has made a living out of defeating great hitters with their own patience. With an expanded strike zone, where now Curt Schilling and Matt Morris and Roy Oswalt, not to mention Mike Mussina and Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens, are pretty much always going to be ahead, it's going to get ugly.

The answer is not Shawon Dunston or Tony Womack, obviously. No one said it was. But it is just as obvious that looking for a walk when you are the last batter the pitcher wants to walk is not going to be as effective anymore. Thus, the .280, 80-walk leadoff man will give way, and has already given way, to the .300, 50-walk leadoff man, the type that dominated the '60s.

The Nellie Fox types have always given the Bob Fellers a lot of trouble, and I don't see any reason why that shouldn't continue.

[hmrsf]

Would have thought Nomar would have been on the '99-'00 list.