Cubs 2002

[cubfan33]

I'm hoping that we can all post and discuss about our favorite teams ... so, being the "Cubfan" I'll go with the Cubs! Imagine ...

The Cubs put out a team they expected to be a placeholder and ended up contending. Even a late Summer swoon didn't take much of the colour off a great season in Wrigley. The deadline deal for Fred McGriff was made at low cost and with good intentions, but didn't seem to help at all. The worry is that Don Baylor in his infinite wisdom ran off Oscar Acosta, universally praised for his work with the pitching staff. Larry Rothschild did a good job with Florida as pitching coach during their Series run, so we'll forgive him the D-Backs and give him a shot.

On the field, the big changes are the loss of Eric Young, Rondell White, and Kevin Tapani. This could well be addition by subtraction as Young was a negative at 2B, White was good, but too often injured, and Tapani is just flat old and done. Additions include the unexpected signing of Moises Alou and the recent signings of Chris Stynes and Darren Lewis. Alou makes the lineup look great and LF in Wrigley is a good place to hide his defensive shortcomings. Stynes and Lewis could see significant playing time, but would best be served as the heart of a great bench.

Let's break it down:

Starting pitching -
Jon Lieber, Kerry Wood, Jason Bere, Juan Cruz
These guys are locks and there are plenty of candidates for the fifth slot, which I'll talk about in just a second. Lieber was finally recognized as a solid staff ace and took a lot of the heat off Kerry Wood. Wood looked more like the ace we expected in 1998 and could finally be all the way back from Tommy John surgery. While Lieber probably won't win 20 again, a solid 15-18 would be great. Wood should also be better, probably 12-15, but Rothschild's usage patterns (see: Hernandez, Livan and Fernandez, Alex) may be cause to worry. Another .500 season from Bere would probably be too much to ask, so let's hope he can eat up some innings while we develop some guys behind him. Cruz was on FIRE and proved to be every bit of the prospect he was touted to be. The fifth slot could be VERY interesting. I expect to see at least two of these in the rotation at the end of the year. The most touted of the candidates is Mark Prior, last year's consensus best player in the draft. He signed too late to play and skipped Arizona to finish his degree. The Cubs tend to let players get seasoning in Iowa (Wood, Patterson) before bringing them up and I expect Prior will enjoy a couple months in Des Moines. Jesus Sanchez came over from Florida in a trade and is most likely to start the season in the five slot if for no other reason that he's a southpaw. He's never shown much in his career, but he's always had potential. His fly/ground ratios really worry me in Wrigley. Julian Tavarez may get another shot at starting, but is more valuable in a swingman role. Carlos Zambrano started some last year, but is very young and may work better in long relief, but will be given the chance to earn his way onto the staff. Dark horse Ben Christenson is hoping to escape his past and come up to Wrigley. He has electric stuff and should be great in years to come. I don't think he'll be significant this year, but his stuff is so good that a hot spring may force McPhail's hand. OVERALL GRADE: B

Bullpen -
Tom Gordon, like Kerry Wood, is another year beyond Tommy John surgery and should be more effective. His combination with Jeff Fassero and Kyle Farnsworth was one of the keys to the Cubs contention. Fassero, used properly, can still be effective and Farnsworth has the sickest fastball in the NL. Courtney Duncan will take over the Felix Heredia role, despite being right handed. I have no idea why Baylor thinks he will excel as a lefty-killer, but I don't understand a lot of Baylor ideas. Tavarez and Zambrano will likely see long relief duties. Last year's Rule 5 pick, Scott Chiasson may see Wrigley time with this great fastball and slider. Will Ohman could have been a good lefty here, but Acosta's mishandling of him last spring led to Dr. James Andrew's office and he's lost for the year. I expect this pen to be strong, but streaky, with Kyle Farnsworth having a breakout year and making Flash Gordon expendable.

1B - Fred McGriff returns to first base and the cleanup role. His advancing age is a worry, but he is consistent and productive if you don't expect superstar numbers. The myth of protection will keep him in the four hole. He blocks Hee Seop Choi, but Choi didn't appear ready last year.

2B - Ryne's old haunt is a mystery going into the season. Eric Young is now a Brewer and Baylor won't have HIS choice as captain. Darn. Bobby Hill is an exciting young player who could seize the job with a good spring, but like Prior, he may be ticketed for Iowa to start the season. There are rumblings that Bill Mueller may be moved over, but questions about his mobility remain, especially after his slow comeback from his broken patella last year. Chris Stynes was brought in as insurance at second and will be a good fit around the diamond and in left if necessary. Delino DeShields would also be a good fit here if Baylor realizes he is not a center fielder. However it works out in Mesa, the Cubs have lots of options here, all reasonably good.

SS - Alex Gonzalez was brought in from Toronto cheaply to replace Ricky Gutierrez. While he is not the defensive player that Ricky is, he has a better bat, so its roughly a wash. Gonzalez has always been "on the verge" and never broken through. Wrigley could help him, but we can live with average. Baylor is currently touting him as a leadoff man, so that's potential trouble. Augie Ojeda provides solid backup.

3B - More puzzle pieces. The obvious answer would be to have Bill Mueller come back to the keystone, but Baylor has him ticketed for second. Let's not forget him here, but currently Mark Bellhorn and Kevin Orie are being told they have chances to start. Bellhorn is a second baseman by trade and Orie is well known to Cubs fans. If either is asked to play third regularly, its a serious problem as neither will produce at the rate needed for the position. Dave Kelton is listed as an infielder again and could be the answer sometime soon.

C - Todd Hundley was expected to be a big part of the Cubs offense last year, but pathetic doesn't begin to sum up his season. He simply can't be worse and his big contract makes sure he gets the shot. Joe Girardi may be good in the clubhouse, but he's bad on the field. Roberto Machado was fine in limited duty, but he still thinks he should start. Jeff Goldbach isnt ready, but he may have to be rushed.

LF - Holy Moises! Sorry, couldn't resist. Moises Alou is a big upgrade over last year's LF of an injured Rondell White and Delino DeShields. Alou is a solid, consistent hitter that will love Wrigley and its fans. He'll hold down the fifth slot and hit 300-30-100 with ease. Rosey Brown is an able backup and bench bat who deserved the job last year.

CF - Say it with me ... Delino DeShields is not an outfielder. Sure we can say it, but Don Baylor just doesn't believe it. Even after being handed 'his type of guy' in Darren Lewis, he still says DeShields goes to Mesa as his center fielder. This is a lineup killer if it holds. My bet is it won't. Corey Patterson has every tool in the game and is much better than his rookie season showed. Darren Lewis is a hard worker and good fielder and can be teamed with Patterson to make an adequate teaming in CF. If Patterson breaks out, the sky's the limit.

RF - Sammy. Another 64 homers. Better plate discipline. Solid in the field. And most important, damn, he has FUN playing the game. He's the Anti-Bonds! Think of this - Sammy has hit 60 home runs twice (three times overall) and NOT won the home run titles those years! Can he do it again? Count on it.

Likely lineup:
SS Alex Gonzalez
2B Bill Mueller
RF Sammy Sosa
1B Fred McGriff
LF Moises Alou
C Todd Hundley
3B Bellhorn/Orie
CF Delino DeShields

Ideal Lineup:
2B Bobby Hill
3B Bill Mueller
RF Sammy Sosa
1B Fred McGriff
LF Moises Alou
SS Alex Gonzalez
C Todd Hundley
CF Patterson/Lewis

My prediction? A hot summer and Mark Prior's arm bring the Cubs a division title as the Cardinals keep it tight to the end and the Astros implode early. The Cubbies aren't ready to step up to the elite, but Choi, Prior, Cruz, Kelton, Goldbach, Christenson, and Montanez will carry them over the top in years to come.

[sweaver]

Ah, the dreams we dream around the hot stove..............

[Duque]

I am still amazed by the Cubs getting Crime Dog for virtually nothing.

Cruz is interesting...a lot of stuff I've read compared him to Pedro, but he's also got Pedro's fragile rep, if I'm not mistaken.

[cubfan33]

Let's face it, for the second time in his career, McGriff was subject to a salary dump. The Devil Rays got nothing, but they did get rid of a big salary at the most easily replaced position (well, LF maybe). The Cubs not only took his current salary, they had to pay for years to come, potentially blocking Hee Seop Choi. The worst is the clause that allowed him to leave the team at any time without penalty. A part of that clause, paid flights, is now evidently being re-negotiated to "my own jet." While I like McGriff, he's NOT worth this.

Juan Cruz is a Skinny Dominican (tm) but he's not fragile. Pedro was just flat overworked by Williams/Kerrigan and we cannot blame that on his Skinny Dominicanness. Given reasonable usage patterns and the knowledge that a 20 yr old Dominican is not as mature as a 20 yr old American, they can be just as stable -- and, see Ryan Anderson, just as fragile. Its scary to think that in the year 2002, a country that is as close as the D.R. is not able to adequately feed its children. Its a disgrace that baseball has not done more. Luckily, the players don't forget and have done wonders. You see old scouting reports and see "6'2, 150" all too regularly. Pictures of Sammy and Juan Gone are plain freaky and makes me respect the scouts that could project that fed right, these kids could grow up to be superstars.

Ok, Im off topic. Go Cubs ... does anyone agree or disagree with my assessments? And who's the next to analyze a team?

[Duque]

I like the Cubs next year. I'd like them a lot more if they went with your ideal lineup instead of the likely Baylor one. And, things seem to be going well for Chicago sports of late - Bears, Cubs, Blackhawks were doing pretty well not too long ago. Now if they could just get the Bulls turned around.

I'm not sure either Houston or St. Louis really improved themselves this offseason, but Chicago did.

Farnsworth throws hard - I remember reading they had him clocked at 101 on a couple consecutive pitches last year. If Wood would cut down on his walks, he'd be untouchable.

[cubfan33]

It was the Fox gun that had him at 101. That thing is deliberately mis-aimed and reads between 3 and 5 miles an hour over the true speed. A-Scouts had him consistently at 96 and occaisionally at 98. That's still DAMN fast, but his ball is "flat" and he has nothing that changes speeds (which prevented him from being a starter.) Wood is great not because he can get it up in the mid-90's but because that hammer curve is about 20 miles an hour slower. Next time Kerry pitches, watch the back foot of the hitter - more often than not, that curve will have the guy so far off his base that the back foot will be in the air! Nasty.

[SmedIndy]

I hope to heck they don't put DeShields in CF and let Patterson play and bat seventh.

Mueller should lead off no matter what, with Stynes/DeSheilds/Hill second.

[Skip]

Originally posted by cubfan33
It was the Fox gun that had him at 101. That thing is deliberately mis-aimed and reads between 3 and 5 miles an hour over the true speed.

For what reason other than Fox-bashing do you say that? I havent seen that anywhere else? Interesting, to say the least, if true. Sort of fits the m.o. though.

[cubfan33]

Yeah, I'm off topic here.

I'm not Fox bashing. In fact, I'm one of few that enjoys their coverage (though I prefer ESPN's.) I'm lucky enough to have access to scouting reports from several teams (arbitration analysis) and I've found that the radar taken from the scouts tends to be 3-5 miles an hour slower. Without getting into a technical discussion about radar (fast gun, slow gun, and where to point it), I just said Fox's gun overstates by 3-5. ESPN's tends to be 1-2. I think its just the fact that hey, its more exciting to see 99 come up than it is 95 ... I don't know why, but it is. What's important is that they CONSISTENTLY are fast, so you do get a true understanding of variation and degradation.

[cubfan33]

Mueller leading off would make some sense, but I'm still hoping for Bobby Hill. Hill has great speed, is solid defensively (even while learning a new position), and walks a lot.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...sthn_wtn.shtml

Bill Mueller, on the other hand, does have the higher OBP, which is the most important thing a leadoff man can do and he doesn't have the power you want in a prototype 3B.

Why I placed Mueller second and Hill leading off is partly my personal preference to put a speed guy first, Baylor's penchant for the hit and run (I didn't mention in my ideal lineup that Baylor would be fired!), and Mueller's ability to hit for more power than Hill and great bat control make him an ideal second slot hitter. Mueller would be a good leadoff man, no doubt, but with Hill available, I slide him to two.

[SmedIndy]

Originally posted by cubfan33
Mueller leading off would make some sense, but I'm still hoping for Bobby Hill. Hill has great speed, is solid defensively (even while learning a new position), and walks a lot.

Why I placed Mueller second and Hill leading off is partly my personal preference to put a speed guy first, Baylor's penchant for the hit and run (I didn't mention in my ideal lineup that Baylor would be fired!), and Mueller's ability to hit for more power than Hill and great bat control make him an ideal second slot hitter. Mueller would be a good leadoff man, no doubt, but with Hill available, I slide him to two.

You are making the wild assumption that Bobby Hill will see any time East of Des Moines this year.

And you're scaring me about DeShields in CF. I hadn't heard about it, but if it's true, I may go up and remove Baylor's spleen by hand. As Moe Syzlak would say, "I'm chokin' on my own rage here."