Mets Deal For Pedro

[Xanadu Dragon]

No, not that Pedro. Not sure he's worth acquiring over someone like Helling.

Wednesday, January 16
Mets keep busy, boost rotation with Astacio
Associated Press

NEW YORK -- Free agent Pedro Astacio and the Mets reached a deal Wednesday night, giving New York a much-needed righty for its rotation.

No contract terms were announced.

The Mets, one of baseball's busiest teams in the offseason, had boosted their offense by acquiring Mo Vaughn -- for right-handed pitcher Kevin Appier -- along with Roberto Alomar and Roger Cedeno.

New York also had obtained Shawn Estes from San Francisco. He joined Al Leiter, Glendon Rusch and Bruce Chen as a fourth left-hander in the Mets' prospective rotation, leaving Steve Trachsel as the lone right-hander.

Astacio was one of the biggest names available at last year's July 31 trading deadline. He was sent from the Colorado Rockies with cash considerations to the Houston Astros for pitcher Scott Elarton and a player to be named.

But Astacio had a partial tear in his right shoulder and, after going 2-1 with a 3.14 ERA for the Astros, was shut down for the rest of the season.

Astacio, 32, finished the season at 8-14 with a 5.09 ERA in 26 starts for the Rockies and Astros.

[BuzzBuzzard]

Big question marks, no doubt. Makes you wonder why the whole franchise seems to be enchanted with this guy.

Buzz, probably not necessarily enchanted, but since Chan Ho Park was the best FA SP in November, and he got $13M per from TEX, it's probably a matter of who they can afford and who's the best at that price. Like bang for the buck.

With a crossing of the fingers, he may just have a pretty good 2002 season. Besides, he's a RHP and I'm sure Valentine didn't want to manage a team w/4 LHPs on the hill.

So long as he doesn't put any zesty sauce on Carmela's meatballs, I suppose you'll be happy.

[gyb13]

Notes on Astacio's 2001 injury-riddled season:
-he was the 3rd unluckiest SP. Based on his peripherals, his expected W-L was 10-9.
-he was the 6th SP most helped by relievers, with a bullpen support of 0.30
-he was slightly better than average, with a SNVA of 0.5

In 2000, he was the 26th best SP by SNWAR, the SP most helped by his relievers, with a bullpen support of 0.40, and was worth 1.8 games more than the average starter.

In 1999, he was the 22nd best SP, the 18th SP most helped by his relievers (0.24 BSup), and was worth 1.4 games more than average.

All this to say - the Mets will not get value for their $5mil. Astacio did not play well last year while hurt, and with his torn labrum, is a longshot to return to his 99-00 level, in which he qualified as a veritable staff ace. They might as well keep their 6 starters - they are going to need them.

[Xanadu Dragon]

In the last 5 years, only 8 in the NL threw more IP than Pedro - - so, he's been reliable for IP - - - just have to wonder if there's been some arm abuse? Anyone know the Rany stats on him? I think all the power RH above him on the list have had arm problems at one point - Schilling, Brown, Kile, Park, etc.

For sure, he's a headcase. Another challenge for Bobby V.

Somewhat related - does Bobby habla? Any Latin coaches on the Mets staff? Communication could be the key to survival.

[LeGrandOrange]

Whether he is or not, I'm not sure, but there'll be someone who does. I reckon Valentine is trilingual, though, if he can speak Japanese, he probably can speak Spanish.
I think it'll be fun to see Astacio pitching at sea level again, though. He was fairly unheralded in Coors, and...hey, he may just be an Appier, the overpaid FA signing who actually turned out quite well.
I hope he'll be back to his Los Angeles form.

[gyb13]

Originally posted by Xanadu Dragon
In the last 5 years, only 8 in the NL threw more IP than Pedro - - so, he's been reliable for IP - - - just have to wonder if there's been some arm abuse? Anyone know the Rany stats on him? I think all the power RH above him on the list have had arm problems at one point - Schilling, Brown, Kile, Park, etc.

YEAR NP/G MAX PAP STRESS
2000 99.4 130 150985 47.4
2001 102.5 126 62418 28

Rany's comment in 2000: "Astacio has already proven that not all curveball pitchers wilt at 5280 feet, but he has yet to disprove that curveball pitchers are more vulnerable to a high workload: his ERA jumped more than a run (5.93 vs 4.87) after the All-Star break."

Seems like he was already suffering from the workload in the 2nd half of 2000. I'm sure that influenced his injury and sub-standard performance in 2001.

Yogi: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/pap2001.htm

[Xanadu Dragon]

Thanks for digging up the abuse points.

For sure, he'll think he died and went to heaven going from Coors/Eron to Shea.

GYB, thanks for adding the link w/my name.

Originally posted by Xanadu Dragon
Somewhat related - does Bobby habla? Any Latin coaches on the Mets staff? Communication could be the key to survival.

Not to my knowledge, but here's the full list:

2 - Bobby Valentine Manager
54 - Charlie Hough Pitching Coach
52 - Randy Niemann Bullpen Coach
53 - Dave Engle Hitting Coach
Matt Galante Third Base Coach
Tom Robson Bench/Infield Coach
1 - Mookie Wilson First Base Coach

Staff
Charlie Samuels Equipment Manager/Associate Travel Director
Vinny Greco Assistant Clubhouse Manager
Tony Carullo Visiting Clubhouse Manager
Scott Lawrenson Head Trainer
Mike Herbst Assistant Trainer
____________________________

In the case of Torre, I think he has Jorge or Bernie speak to Orlando Hernandez, who only hablas. Hideki Irabu, who George brought over, they'd hired an interpreter who seemed to match with the pitcher's persona.

I read that LAD's catcher Paul Lo Duca intended to take a crash course in Japanese, since Nomo is returning and there's another Japanese player signing. This about a month from pitchers and catchers reporting. Lo Duca said he'd planned to also hang out with those guys, that he likes sushi, fish so that may be a plus for the relationship. He'd also mentioned that if those guys needed to find a good pasta restaurant.................

[BuzzBuzzard]

Half the team is Latin. Communication with the guy won't be the problem.

I still have to chuckle at all the comparisons to prior year statistics which seem to guarantee, to some, with 100% certainty, that Astacio was a mistake. If life was just statistics, how unbelievably predictable things would be. If he falls apart, I guess it will be because the statistics showed it. How would we explain success for Pedro, should it happen? Must be an anomaly, a blip with otherwise unexplainable origins.

[pathogan]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
Half the team is Latin. Communication with the guy won't be the problem.

I still have to chuckle at all the comparisons to prior year statistics which seem to guarantee, to some, with 100% certainty, that Astacio was a mistake. If life was just statistics, how unbelievably predictable things would be. If he falls apart, I guess it will be because the statistics showed it. How would we explain success for Pedro, should it happen? Must be an anomaly, a blip with otherwise unexplainable origins.

Didnt Piazza catch him in La? gues they worked something out. 3/4 of the mets infield is spanish speaking, so its a red herring....Heretical to say, though I agree with the statistics controlling too much of the debate...baseball is not roto league,that is not to trash statistics,but to use them as one tool, a vital one, but hardly the final say.

[Xanadu Dragon]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
If life was just statistics, how unbelievably predictable things would be

Wasn't statistics your major in college?
Was that a waste of 7 years?

[BuzzBuzzard]

Originally posted by Xanadu Dragon
Wasn't statistics your major in college?
Was that a waste of 7 years?

Yes, it was one of my majors, but not a waste of 7 years. Years 5 through 7 were critical.

[gyb13]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
I still have to chuckle at all the comparisons to prior year statistics which seem to guarantee, to some, with 100% certainty, that Astacio was a mistake. If life was just statistics, how unbelievably predictable things would be. If he falls apart, I guess it will be because the statistics showed it. How would we explain success for Pedro, should it happen? Must be an anomaly, a blip with otherwise unexplainable origins.

My point is not that signing Astacio is a mistake - it's a big risk. When healthy, he's one of the top 30 pitchers in the majors. But his performance in the past 18 months (be it by overuse or injury) and the historic of pitchers who decide to 'play it out' with torn labrums should be a big "ALERT!" sign to Steve Phillips.

[sweaver]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
Yes, it was one of my majors, but not a waste of 7 years. Years 5 through 7 were critical.

Yes, I would have to say that my undergraduate career was 6 and a half of the best years of my life.

Now I teach at a college, so there is a happy ending.

I have previously stated that Astacio sounds like a career-ending injury waiting to happen. If it doesn't, he will be a good pitcher. Caveat emptor, every pitcher is always on the brink of an injury.