Does Bobby Grich belong in the HOF?

[Golden Bear]

OK, this is all good, but other than pointing to TPR ratings, which some like but I find a little opaque, I'm not sure I've gotten a really good pitch for Grich's HOF credentials.

Let me ask more specific questions from his boosters:

Was he truly extraordinary with the glove? Was he the equal of his near-contemporary Morgan, for example? If so, for how long? (Morgan was a top-flight fielder for over 10 years.)

What's the story with the air conditioner? He had back trouble, if I recall...is that what it's from?

Batting: I can read the numbers: good but not great pop, better late in career; some speed early, but really not an integral part of the package; ordinary BA, but excellent OBP.

Am I missing something? If not, can someone tell me (and I'm open-minded here) how this is a truly great player instead of a very good one?

Addressing some other points:

Grich was the best 2B in the league for several years. In my mind, that qualifies him for the Hall.

This is a big point in his favor, but it's not the entire argument; otherwise Bill Freehan and Lance Parrish would be in the HOF as catchers.

Grich was better than Ryne Sandberg.

I saw Ryne Sandberg play, and I know his numbers. Sandberg is a no-brainer HOF in my mind...if Grich was clearly better, this thread wouldn't be necessary.

This statement is largely based on TPR, and basically leads me to believe there's something flawed in the formula, because the results don't comport to what I clearly saw with my own eyes. (My guess is they give undue weight to walks.)

I'm not sure if Grich should be in, but in no way was he better than Sandberg.
Grich is underrated by the public at large, but overrated by Total Baseball, because he was mostly on teams with low-K/groundball staffs (Orioles and post-Ryan Angels), and TB tends to overrate anyone who was good on the DP, not that that's not important.

Any statistical analysis is going to produce flukes. Traditional analysis overrates high-average hitters and RBI men. Current sabermetric analysis overrates Grich, Blyleven and Darrell Evans. They were underrated players, very good players, but not GREAT players, as they appear.

In Bill James' Win Shares method, a season of 30 Win Shares
is typically a good MVP-type year. Grich had two seasons of 30
Win Shares, 31 and 30, plus just missing it with seasons of 29, 29, 28. He had 21 in the strike-shortened 1981 season. But Sandberg had Win Share totals of 39, 37, 34, 33, plus two seasons of 28. Alomar's top years are 37 (2001), 35, 34, 31, 31. These guys are clearly better.

Re: Grich's defense, he was a very good fielder, but the best defensive second basemen of his time were Frank White and Manny Trillo. White had the best range, he was maybe the best turf second baseman ever. I would give Randolph the edge over Grich as well. Balancing Grich's superior power against Randolph's speed and longevity -- Randolph had a .424 on-base percentage at age 36 -- I think they're pretty even.

More on Win Shares, and second basemen:

It is very clear that there is a clear delineation at 30 Win Shares, as well as 35, and 40.

Guys who are just good players can get to 30 Win Shares in a career year: Chuck Knoblauch, Larry Doyle, Tony Lazzeri, Billy Herman, Randolph, Gordon, Buddy Myer, Jeff Kent, Bobby Avila, Eddie Stanky, Tommy Herr, Steve Sax, are all guys who had exactly 1 season of 30 Win Shares. There are many very good players who never had 30 Win Shares in a season: Lou Whitaker, Jim Gilliam, Bill Mazeroski, Bobby Doerr, Carlos Baerga, Davey Lopes.
The guys with two or more seasons of 30 Win Shares:
Collins 10, Hornsby 9, Morgan 8, Lajoie 7, Biggio 5, Alomar 5, Sandberg 4, Gehringer 4, Frisch 4, Fox 2, Childs 2, Grich 2. I can't be sure how many Jackie Robinson had, but it was at least 3, and probably 5.

This method would seem to confirm the belief that Grich is on the border of very good/true immortal.

Guys with seasons of 35 or more, not counting guys like Rose and Carew, who started as second basemen but did it at other positions:
Collins 8, Hornsby 8, Morgan 5, Lajoie 3, Sandberg 2, Alomar 2, Biggio 2, Robinson 2, Gehringer 1, Kent 1.

This again, appears to be useful. The guys you would call no-brainer Hall of Famers seem to hit this level at least once or twice. And yes, I'd have to say Biggio is a no-brainer Hall of Famer, independent of this method. In a pure fluke, Jeff Kent reached this level with his MVP season.


There are 12 seasons by second basemen with 40 or more Win Shares: Hornsby 5, Collins 3, Lajoie 2, Morgan 2

[BuzzBuzzard]

Originally posted by Baudib
but in no way was he better than Sandberg.

I with you on this one. Sandberg was clearly the better player.

[KCBOOMER]

Sandberg had two things Grich never had. He had some great years and he looked great on SportsCenter.

I watched Frank White for over 15 years. During his time there was no one that could touch him with the glove.

[Duque]

Frank White is sort of a latter-day Bill Mazeroski.

Similarity scores are by no means a perfect science, but Grich's closest three closest comps are Toby Harrah, Jay Bell, and Sal Bando. Not quite HOF sounding.

[sweaver]

Two of those comps to Grich are third basemen. Says something for his hitting.

I believe Sandberg was better than Grich, and he had a higher peak. Grich played at about the same excellent level for several years, never having the real big MVP-type year, then hurt his back when he was on his way to his best year, hurting his overall performance.

I think Grich should be in the Hall, but I also understand arguments against it. He's pretty close to the line, IMO, just depends on where you draw it.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
Grich was one of the best second basemen of his era. He is hurt by:

1. People comparing 1970's offensive statistics to today.
2. The fact he was underappreciated in his own time because the things he did the best (walk, get on base, play heads up ball) don't really show in the big three stats. Reliance on RBI for a player who didn't bat normally in a power spot isn't fair to Grich.

I think Grich is a better player than some of the Hall of Fame second basemen. However, I don't know if I would put him in just because of that.

DITTO!

Grich once led the AL in HRs (22 in 1981, the strike year, in a 3 way tie). That's the type of black ink that you look for in a Hall-of-Fame worthy record.

Grich is worthy of the Hall-of-Fame if you value him in comparision to current Hall-of-Fame second baseman; he's in the middle of the group. I would advocate his selection more strongly if it weren't for 3 factors:

A. While there are 2B not as good as Grich not in the Hall, there are better 2B than Grich not in the Hall as well. (Joe Gordon and Lou Whitaker lead this list. Del Pratt and Larry Doyle were, I believe, better players than Grich, as well.)

B. The 2B inferior to Grich in the Hall are some of the most marginal HOF selections in history. I do not believe that Red Schoendienst or Nellie Fox were true Hall-of-Famers, even by the real standards of Cooperstown.

C. There are bigger HOF injustices than Grich. Joe Gordon (who won an MVP, and was a comparable player), Ron Santo, and Gary Carter were all greater players than Grich, and all have been denied Cooperstown.

I do think that Grich was the best 2B in the AL over the course of his career, although he seemed to be unrecognized as such.

My final answer: Grich for Cooperstown . . .
AFTER Gordon, Santo, and Carter!

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by KCBOOMER
This one is a tough call as most second baseman are due to their lack of power run production. I followed him his whole career and he was tough.

I really dislike letting him because Evers/Fox/Herman/Lazzeri/Schoendienst are in. That is not exactly a glittering array of HoFers and with the exception of Herman could all be mistakes.

I never thought of him as a HoFer but he might possibly be worthy of that honor.

If Bobby Grich were elected to the Hall of Fame, he would not be diluting the standard.

The Hall of Fame has always taken in players who were far less than superstars, such as Rabbit Maranville, Rick Ferrell, George Kelly, etc. Not only does Bobby Grich meet that standard, but he meets it easily.

Nellie Fox was the best 2B in the AL in his time. Red Schoendienst was the 2nd best 2B in the NL (behind Jackie Robinson) in his time. Johnny Evers won an MVP while playing on the greatest miracle team ever (the 1914 Braves, a second division team prior to 1914 that was in last place on July 4) in his first year with the Braves, after being one of the best players on a Cubs team that won more games in a decade than any other team. Tony Lazzeri had a shorter career than Grich, but he was a similar type player. The 2B contingent listed don't fit my idea of superstardom, but superstardom has never been the standard. These guys (and Grich) are heads and tails ahead of Kelly, Maranville, and Ferrell.

I don't like the fact that the HOF has such a gray area. By my standards, Grich is a marginal HOFer at best. But by the standards of WHO HAS ALREADY BEEN SELECTED, Bobby Grich rises far above the standard of the lowest common denominator (e.g. Bud Harrelson should go in because Rabbit Maranville is in, and Bud Harrelson was just as good a player in a poorer hittin era.) to the highest common denominator standard (e.g. There is no catcher that has done what Gary Carter has done who is not in the Hall of Fame). Other than Joe Gordon, I can't think of any HOF eligible players outside Cooperstown who are better than Grich.

Using the lowest common denominator isn't very helpful, because by that method:

Cecil Cooper, Bob Watson, Will Clark, Don Mattingly, Garvey, Norm Cash, Boog Powell, Gil Hodges, Kent Hrbek, Keith Hernandez are all better...mostly far better, than George Kelly or Jim Bottomley.

Using your other standard is better, but you still get some questionable honorees:

Dave Concepcion is everything that Grich is. He was the best shortstop in baseball over a period of many years. There isn't any shortstop who accomplished what Concepcion did that isn't in the Hall of Fame. He was a Gold Glover five times, and was the best offensive shortstop in the NL for years.

You can apply these same standards to Sherry Magee, Bobby Bonds, Reggie Smith, maybe a few other guys like Vada Pinson, Jimmy Wynn, Norm Cash...

[KCBOOMER]

I am with Baudib. I really dislike the membership criteria being "Gee, he's better than some of the guy's who are already in there".

By the criteria you have selected I have no problem with him being a HoFer. By the criteria I have selected I would have a problem but not enough to get bent out of shape over.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by Baudib
Using the lowest common denominator isn't very helpful, because by that method:

Cecil Cooper, Bob Watson, Will Clark, Don Mattingly, Garvey, Norm Cash, Boog Powell, Gil Hodges, Kent Hrbek, Keith Hernandez are all better...mostly far better, than George Kelly or Jim Bottomley.

Using your other standard is better, but you still get some questionable honorees:

Dave Concepcion is everything that Grich is. He was the best shortstop in baseball over a period of many years. There isn't any shortstop who accomplished what Concepcion did that isn't in the Hall of Fame. He was a Gold Glover five times, and was the best offensive shortstop in the NL for years.

You can apply these same standards to Sherry Magee, Bobby Bonds, Reggie Smith, maybe a few other guys like Vada Pinson, Jimmy Wynn, Norm Cash...

I once thought that Concepcion should be in the Hall, and he is better than a number of SS there. He started on 4 pennant winners, but was a star only on 2 of those teams (1975-76, the best teams). The performances of Larkin, Ripken, Trammell, Ozzie (a much, much better OFFENSIVE player than Dave), not to mention A-Rod and Derek, have changed my thoughts on the subject.

[Golden Bear]

I think we've done a good job of explicating the pros and cons on Grich, and pigeonholing his proper place in history, unless anyone has more to say on the subject.

It seems to me that the consensus is Grich is good enough to get to Cooperstown, and very possibly will someday...but is not the best player not there, or even the best 2b, so he'll likely have a long wait.

Thanks all.