Mariano Rivera and The Boston Red Sox

[Crash Course]

When Mo Rivera allowed the tying run in the top of the 9th today (against the Red Sox) the talk began to get loud again about how Boston is inside Rivera's head and he cannot beat them.

And, granted, the stats from 2001 to date do show that the Red Sox have had more success against Rivera than any other team in baseball.

That said, there are some pieces of the puzzle here that many choose to overlook.

First, give the Red Sox some credit. In 2002, they had the 2nd best offense in the AL. In 2003, they had the best offense in the AL. And, in 2004, they again were the best batting team in the AL. Facing Boston is not exactly getting to go up against the Kansas City Royals or Detroit Tigers. I'm sure there are many pitchers in the AL who have had more trouble with Boston than any other team (since 2001).

Secondly, if Boston had Rivera's number - would they not have it most of the time and not just some of the time? Clearly, Boston beat Rivera in the 2004 ALCS. But, what happened in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS? The Sox had many shots against Rivera in that game, and still lost.

Furthermore, look at today's game - Varitek hit the HR off Rivera to tie the game. Yet, in that AB, Rivera got two strikes on him before the HR where it looked like Varitek was overmatched. Where was the edge in those two pitches?

If anything, personally, I think what the Sox do better with Rivera, than others do, is in terms of pitch recognition. Look at the stats from 2002 through 2004:

For Rivera, vs.
Baltimore: 28.1 IP, 31 H, 1 BB, 22 SO, and an ERA of 2.86 and he's 20 for 21 in Saves
Boston: 24.1 IP, 28 H, 10 BB, 18 SO, and an ERA of 3.70 and he's 9 for 14 in Saves

The numbers are just about the same - sans walks allowed and blown saves. There is a connection there.

Boston and New York have played each other 54 times, to date, since 2003. The Red Sox have had more chances to see Rivera than most other teams. Once Mo realizes that he needs to present a little different look to the Sox batters, he should be fine.

And, even if Rivera does blow a save or two against Boston this year, it should not been seen as the end of the world in Yankee Fan Land. Instead, just tip your cap. Yankee fans, and wait and see what happens in the next match-up before you jump off a cliff.

[KCBOOMER]

Yankees fans overreact to the wind shifting. This is not Byung Yung Rivera we are talking about. He will be fine. Like you said, give Boston some credit. They are a fine offensive team.

[nyy26wc]

Originally Posted by Crash Course

If anything, personally, I think what the Sox do better with Rivera, than others do, is in terms of pitch recognition. Look at the stats from 2002 through 2004:

For Rivera, vs.
Baltimore: 28.1 IP, 31 H, 1 BB, 22 SO, and an ERA of 2.86 and he's 20 for 21 in Saves
Boston: 24.1 IP, 28 H, 10 BB, 18 SO, and an ERA of 3.70 and he's 9 for 14 in Saves

The numbers are just about the same - sans walks allowed and blown saves. There is a connection there.

While there is definitely a BB discrepency, I disagree with your conclusion that there is a connection.

If there was actually a connection between the increased BB and results in this particular case, then the increased BB would manifest itself in a much higher ERA disparity.

Instead, the fact that there is such a big discrepency in "save" percentage, while not as huge a discrepency in ERA says that the rest of the Yankees team gets a bigger lead against the rest of the Orioles than they do against the rest of the Redsox. Therefore, Rivera doesn't get as many "blown saves" against the Orioles because he has a bigger lead to work with.

[guidry49]

you can analyze the matchups between Boston and Rivera 5,000 different ways...bottom line- Boston has figured something out.....the fact that their lefties are hitting him is very telling.

I was at the game yesterday, and when I watched Varitek hit that homerun, and Damon's "almost" homerun....I got very worried.

Now- I'm sure Rivera is mentally strong enough to punish the other 15+ teams he will face this year, and put up another great season.

But if it's october 17th...3-2 bottom of the ninth in Fenway.....this yankee fan will be gnawing at his fingernails.

[Crash Course]

Originally Posted by nyy26wc

the fact that there is such a big discrepency in "save" percentage, while not as huge a discrepency in ERA says that the rest of the Yankees team gets a bigger lead against the rest of the Orioles than they do against the rest of the Redsox. Therefore, Rivera doesn't get as many "blown saves" against the Orioles because he has a bigger lead to work with.

Good point.

[guidry49]

His ERA against Baltimore is almost a full run lower than against the sox.

For a reliever that usually only pitches one inning- that is a big difference.

[guidry49]

also- what kind of hits is he giving up?

how many of baltimores 31 hits are broken bat singles, and how many of Boston's 28 went over the wall?

[captain_napalm]

I wouldn't be too worried, like I didn't make a big deal of Enrique Wilson "owning" Pedro Martinez

[rc3000]

I am not sure what the final line in terms of earned vs. unearned runs was today but has Rivera ever allowed 5 runs in a save opportunity before?

[Crash Course]

Well, now, um, ah, that its been two days in a row...............

Time for Mo to get a shrink.

[guidry49]

Originally Posted by guidry49

But if it's october 17th...3-2 bottom of the ninth in Fenway.....this yankee fan will be gnawing at his fingernails.

did I say October 17th? did I say Fenway? I meant April 6th in the Bronx

spooky that I had the correct score though

-fingernailess in New Jersey

[Crash Course]

I still have to watch the tapes, but, I did see the Damon hit in the 9th - bad, bad. location - centered right on the plate. Soup Campbell says it's location and that he's not finishing off his pitches. Mel, Joe, you listening?

[nyy26wc]

The big picture here is Rivera just isn't that important.

7th inning, game on the line, tying run in scoring position, heart of the lineup coming up ... who gets to pitch the important innings? It's going to be Gordon, Stanton, Rodriguez, maybe Quantrill (although Torre seemed to have soured on him big time late in last season), but hopefully not Sturtze.

Who doesn't get to pitch when the game is really on the line most of the time? Rivera.

Who gets to pitch in the 9th inning, who cares who's coming up, let's just see if we have someone who can avoid a 18.00 or 27.00 ERA for the day? Those low leverage, but enorously hyped, assignments go to Rivera.

I'm almost looking forward to when Rivera has the inevitable turn to mediocrity that all "closers" suddenly experience. I can't wait to see it happen, have the Yankees record not really be affected, and watch the NY media be baffled by the lack of a connection between the two.

[Crash Course]

Well, FWIW, looking at the highlights (lowlights?) for today, I'm not sure it's 100% Rivera. The walk hurt. But, other than the Damon hit, the rest were bloops and seeing-eye jobs. And, A-Rod's error was key. And, Ortiz's ground out was in a perfect spot and just slow enough.........in total, I think today was a feather in the cap of DIP theory.

[nyy26wc]

Originally Posted by Crash Course

Well, FWIW, looking at the highlights (lowlights?) for today, I'm not sure it's 100% Rivera. The walk hurt. But, other than the Damon hit, the rest were bloops and seeing-eye jobs. And, A-Rod's error was key. And, Ortiz's ground out was in a perfect spot and just slow enough.........in total, I think today was a feather in the cap of DIP theory.

Excuses, excuses, excuses.

All they do is add up to a L.