2005 - The Year No One Hits 40 HRs?

Crash Course · 01-26-2005, 11:27 AM

Tango on Baseball has just released projections on player performance for 2005.

Looking at the batters file quickly, it appears that no one, in this system, projects to hit 40 homeruns in 2005.

Being someone who can remember when 32 HRs would lead a league in that department, I would love to see this happen this season.

Hope springs eternal.

RascalJones · 01-26-2005, 01:18 PM

Also has no pitchers projected to win more than 15 games.

Crash Course · 01-26-2005, 02:17 PM

I have to think Unit, with NY, will do better than the 12 they projected for him in AZ.

nyy26wc · 01-26-2005, 03:05 PM

All of these "projections" are really nothing more than random guesses.

And, in other news, I randomly guess that nobody will have an exactly 84 RCAA, .694 SLG, 23 SB, 8 HBP and a pregnant wife season.

But, I also randomly guess that someone in the majors will have a 43 RCAA season and someone will have a .343 OBA.

JamesI · 01-29-2005, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nyy26wc

But, I also randomly guess that someone in the majors will have a 43 RCAA season and someone will have a .343 OBA.

But will they have a pregnant wife?

PianoMonkey · 02-01-2005, 10:21 AM

There isn't really such a term as a "pregnant-wife season," is there?

Does anybody have numbers on the changes to a player's offensive production made by having a baby on the way?

Crash Course · 02-01-2005, 11:16 AM

Check A-Rod 2003 vs. 2004.

captain_napalm · 02-01-2005, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PianoMonkey

There isn't really such a term as a "pregnant-wife season," is there?

Does anybody have numbers on the changes to a player's offensive production made by having a baby on the way?

Ask Luis Gonzalez

Joseph · 02-01-2005, 09:31 PM

aren't these projections more educated guesses or "projections" than random ones?

Crash Course · 02-01-2005, 10:53 PM

dunno?
they seem on the low side, compared to, say, the Bill James Handbook.

Joseph · 02-01-2005, 11:10 PM

I guess what I was trying to say is that I fail to see how these projections are just more than random guesses.

Crash Course · 02-02-2005, 08:50 AM

IIRC, it's based on the three prior years results - which is a lot better than just pulling numbers out of a hat. Typically, proven players will around the same numbers each year.

Look at Barry Bonds' HR totals the last three years.
Look at Todd Helton's HR totals the last three years.
Look at Ichiro's HR totals for each season he's been in the league.

Every year the number for these guys is about the same.

nyy26wc · 02-02-2005, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joseph

aren't these projections more educated guesses or "projections" than random ones?

I didn't mean they were literally random guesses. But, they have almost the same value.

Tangotiger · 02-12-2005, 12:37 AM

The comments I've read here seem to point to some lack of understanding of Marcel.

The Marcel the Monkey forecasting system is simply a weighted average of the last few years, regressed towards the mean based on sample size, and includes a modest aging factor. It represents what any person looking at the back of a baseball card what they think that player will hit in the coming year. Think of it as a poll for expectations.

It is darn accurate, and better than random, and much better than useless.

***

It is not the best forecasting system, and it doesn't pretend to be. But, any forecasting system out there should be ashamed of itself for not beating Marcel.

I ran a test a couple of years ago at my site, and Marcel did as well as other professional forecasting systems, and as well as the consensus among 150 fans.

***

If 1 million people play in a lottery where the chances of winning are 1 in a million, I will give the odds of each of those people exactly 1/1,000,000. The *sum* of all those odds will come out to exactly 1 million. Now, my forecast for any single person is virtually zero, but I still expect someone to win. I just don't know who.

I forecast a handful of hitters to hit between 30 and 39 home runs. I expect someone (and more likely a few) to hit at least 40 HR. I just don't have anyone that has a very good chance of doing it.

Same thing with wins, or any other stat.

***

As for RJ or any player that switched teams, this is not built into the forecasting engine. Then again, I said the same thing last year when Javy Vazquez was signed by the Yanks, and Marcel said he'd win 11 or 12 games.

***

Makofan · 02-12-2005, 01:54 PM

To answer A-rod 03 vs 04, it is important tonotice that Arod's "away" totals were virtually identical both years - Yankee Stadium is just death to right-handers

01-26-2005, 11:27 AM	#1
Crash Course NetShrine Creator & Curator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: NetShrine WHQ Posts: 10,070	2005 - The Year No One Hits 40 HRs? Tango on Baseball has just released projections on player performance for 2005. Looking at the batters file quickly, it appears that no one, in this system, projects to hit 40 homeruns in 2005. Being someone who can remember when 32 HRs would lead a league in that department, I would love to see this happen this season. Hope springs eternal. __________________ Steve, Forum Admin Hit Grass, Win Salad Man, this is baseball. You gotta stop thinking. Just have fun. - Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez, in The Sandlot I've been going to games since August 8, 1973....and on August 22, 2004, finally, a foul ball came my way. I had to reach for it, and it deflected off the tip of my right index finger. Shoot, if I was only 4 inches taller! Have you read The Baseball Same Game?

01-26-2005, 01:18 PM	#2
RascalJones NetShrine All-Century Team Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Columbus, Ohio Posts: 1,862	Also has no pitchers projected to win more than 15 games. __________________ "Baseball is dull only to dull minds." -- Red Barber, announcer "The biggest thrill a ballplayer can have is when your son takes after you. That happened when my Bobby was in his championship Little League game. He really showed me something. Struck out three times. Made an error that lost the game. Parents were throwing things at our car and swearing at us as we drove off. Gosh, I was proud." -- Bob Uecker

01-26-2005, 02:17 PM	#3
Crash Course NetShrine Creator & Curator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: NetShrine WHQ Posts: 10,070	I have to think Unit, with NY, will do better than the 12 they projected for him in AZ. __________________ Steve, Forum Admin Hit Grass, Win Salad Man, this is baseball. You gotta stop thinking. Just have fun. - Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez, in The Sandlot I've been going to games since August 8, 1973....and on August 22, 2004, finally, a foul ball came my way. I had to reach for it, and it deflected off the tip of my right index finger. Shoot, if I was only 4 inches taller! Have you read The Baseball Same Game?

01-26-2005, 03:05 PM	#4
nyy26wc NetShrine All-Century Team Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: NJ Posts: 14,584	All of these "projections" are really nothing more than random guesses. And, in other news, I randomly guess that nobody will have an exactly 84 RCAA, .694 SLG, 23 SB, 8 HBP and a pregnant wife season. But, I also randomly guess that someone in the majors will have a 43 RCAA season and someone will have a .343 OBA. __________________ Lee Creator, Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. It's powerful, yet extremely easy to use. Features extensive sorting and stat display options. The CBE has many features that are not available in online and printed sources. Has 2006 stats and daily update service for 2007.

02-01-2005, 10:21 AM	#6
PianoMonkey Inducted Into The NetShrine Assembly of Fame Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: (Former) Home of the Blades Posts: 838	There isn't really such a term as a "pregnant-wife season," is there? Does anybody have numbers on the changes to a player's offensive production made by having a baby on the way? __________________ "We can’t win at home, we can’t win on the road, and quite frankly, I don’t know where else to play.”

02-01-2005, 11:16 AM	#7
Crash Course NetShrine Creator & Curator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: NetShrine WHQ Posts: 10,070	Check A-Rod 2003 vs. 2004. __________________ Steve, Forum Admin Hit Grass, Win Salad Man, this is baseball. You gotta stop thinking. Just have fun. - Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez, in The Sandlot I've been going to games since August 8, 1973....and on August 22, 2004, finally, a foul ball came my way. I had to reach for it, and it deflected off the tip of my right index finger. Shoot, if I was only 4 inches taller! Have you read The Baseball Same Game?

02-01-2005, 09:31 PM	#9
Joseph Guest Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Home of the Saltdogs Posts: 441	aren't these projections more educated guesses or "projections" than random ones?

02-01-2005, 10:53 PM	#10
Crash Course NetShrine Creator & Curator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: NetShrine WHQ Posts: 10,070	dunno? they seem on the low side, compared to, say, the Bill James Handbook. __________________ Steve, Forum Admin Hit Grass, Win Salad Man, this is baseball. You gotta stop thinking. Just have fun. - Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez, in The Sandlot I've been going to games since August 8, 1973....and on August 22, 2004, finally, a foul ball came my way. I had to reach for it, and it deflected off the tip of my right index finger. Shoot, if I was only 4 inches taller! Have you read The Baseball Same Game?

02-01-2005, 11:10 PM	#11
Joseph Guest Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Home of the Saltdogs Posts: 441	I guess what I was trying to say is that I fail to see how these projections are just more than random guesses.

02-02-2005, 08:50 AM	#12
Crash Course NetShrine Creator & Curator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: NetShrine WHQ Posts: 10,070	IIRC, it's based on the three prior years results - which is a lot better than just pulling numbers out of a hat. Typically, proven players will around the same numbers each year. Look at Barry Bonds' HR totals the last three years. Look at Todd Helton's HR totals the last three years. Look at Ichiro's HR totals for each season he's been in the league. Every year the number for these guys is about the same. __________________ Steve, Forum Admin Hit Grass, Win Salad Man, this is baseball. You gotta stop thinking. Just have fun. - Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez, in The Sandlot I've been going to games since August 8, 1973....and on August 22, 2004, finally, a foul ball came my way. I had to reach for it, and it deflected off the tip of my right index finger. Shoot, if I was only 4 inches taller! Have you read The Baseball Same Game?

02-12-2005, 12:37 AM	#14
Tangotiger NetShrine Hot Prospect Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 24	The comments I've read here seem to point to some lack of understanding of Marcel. The Marcel the Monkey forecasting system is simply a weighted average of the last few years, regressed towards the mean based on sample size, and includes a modest aging factor. It represents what any person looking at the back of a baseball card what they think that player will hit in the coming year. Think of it as a poll for expectations. It is darn accurate, and better than random, and much better than useless. * It is not the best forecasting system, and it doesn't pretend to be. But, any forecasting system out there should be ashamed of itself for not beating Marcel. I ran a test a couple of years ago at my site, and Marcel did as well as other professional forecasting systems, and as well as the consensus among 150 fans. * If 1 million people play in a lottery where the chances of winning are 1 in a million, I will give the odds of each of those people exactly 1/1,000,000. The sum of all those odds will come out to exactly 1 million. Now, my forecast for any single person is virtually zero, but I still expect someone to win. I just don't know who. I forecast a handful of hitters to hit between 30 and 39 home runs. I expect someone (and more likely a few) to hit at least 40 HR. I just don't have anyone that has a very good chance of doing it. Same thing with wins, or any other stat. * As for RJ or any player that switched teams, this is not built into the forecasting engine. Then again, I said the same thing last year when Javy Vazquez was signed by the Yanks, and Marcel said he'd win 11 or 12 games. *

02-12-2005, 01:54 PM	#15
Makofan Inducted Into The NetShrine Assembly of Fame Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 791	To answer A-rod 03 vs 04, it is important tonotice that Arod's "away" totals were virtually identical both years - Yankee Stadium is just death to right-handers

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