The Carl Pavano Chase

[Crash Course]

There's a lot of interest in Free Agent pitcher Carl Pavano.

MLB.com has a report on Pavano's recent talks with the Boston Red Sox:

Free agent right-hander Carl Pavano had a productive and educational visit to Boston on Thursday. Aside from meeting with Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein and going to ace right-hander Curt Schilling's suburban house for dinner, Pavano was given a tour of the facilities at Fenway Park, the venue he once dreamed of making his living during his years in the Boston farm system.

"Things went great," said Scott Shapiro, who represents Pavano. "Carl was able to answer a lot of the questions he had and the organization was fantastic in being able to give Carl a tour of the facilities, show him the resources they have, such as a digitalized video bank and how to use it. Carl spoke to [assistant trainer] Chris [Correnti], who was his trainer back when he was in the organization originally, and talked to him about how to address training programs for the pitching staff."

But the highlight of the visit was probably the visit to Chez Schilling, in Medfield, Mass.

As a 28-year-old pitcher with a sturdy body (6-foot-5, 235 pounds), Pavano obviously has a huge appreciation for what the 38-year-old Schilling (who has a similarly strong build) has been able to accomplish in his career.

"Schil was incredibly generous as a host, as well as sharing his knowledge," said Shapiro. "Carl and Schil really hit it off, talking about the art of pitching and everything they deal with as pitchers at the Major League level. He told him about his experiences in Boston and basically why he felt Carl would be a good fit. It was a terrific trip."

And, there are reports in the news about other stops upcoming for Pavano:

the agent for Carl Pavano said Monday that the free-agent pitcher plans to visit New York from Dec. 3-5 to speak with Yankees officials. The 28-year-old right-hander, who met with Red Sox officials in Boston last week, also is planning trips to visit the Detroit Tigers (Dec. 2-3), Baltimore Orioles (Dec. 6-7), the Seattle Mariners (Dec. 7-8) and Anaheim Angels (Dec. 9-10), agent Scott Shapiro said.

For those who are not aware, Pavano is a 6' 5" RHP who made his big league debut with the Montreal Expos. After several years of pitching at a level that many would consider below league average, he had a big year in 2004, at age 28, for the Florida Marlins.

Actually, if this story rings a bell, to some extent, there's a reason. There recently was another 6' 5" RHP who made his big league debut with the Montreal Expos - and, who, after several years of pitching at a level that many would consider below league average, had a big year at age 28.

His name was Steve Renko.

Renko went on to pitch another 10 years (after his big season) in the majors - but, he was far from an "all-star" pitcher during those times. Last time I checked, Renko is currently a coach in the Yankees minor league system.

Another pitcher "like" Pavano was the Brewer's Bill Wegman. Also 6' 5" and right-handed, Wegman had a breakout year at age 28 (in 1991). He was a workhorse for the Brewers in 1992, and then his career was all downhill.

Does this mean that the team who signs Pavano will get burned? It's possible.

As far as I can tell, there's never been a pitcher, who parallels Pavano's career to date, who has gone on to have another solid 4 or 5 years in a row from ages 29 to 33.

Let the buyer beware.

[Jim Rice]

Depends on the buyer and the price. If the Red Sox, or any other team, are planning on Pavano as a replacement of a Pedro-level pitcher, that would be foolish. But if they are planning on Pavano as a replacement of a Derek Lowe-level pitcher, that should work out very well:

Lowe last three years' ERA+: 171, 105, 90. He'll be 32. And his asking price is reportedly around $9 million per year.

Pavano last three years' ERA+: 79, 94, 137. He'll be 29. And his asking price is reportedly around $7 million per year.

Using the similarity scores for Pavano at his current age on baseball-reference.com, there are a lot of duds there (Oil Can Boyd, Dustin Hermanson, Luis Leal, Wegman, Art Mahaffey), but there are also some pitchers who were pretty good for the ages that would cover Pavano's next contract (Charles Nagy, Aaron Sele, Todd Stottlemyre, Jim Lonborg), so it's not like it would be unprecedented for him to post a winning percentage of about .600 and an ERA+ of 110 or so for the next four years. Is Pavano the best option out there? No, I'd rather have Radke or try a trade with the A's for Hudson, et al. But as a middle of the rotation pitcher, he's not bad, just expensive.

[Crash Course]

According to one source the Marlins offered him a 3 year deal at $7 mill each year. So, it will probably take more than that to get him.

[Jim Rice]

Originally Posted by Crash Course

According to one source the Marlins offered him a 3 year deal at $7 mill each year. So, it will probably take more than that to get him.

Not much if he doesn't want to stay in Florida anyway, which seems to be the case.

[KCBOOMER]

I am just surprised at all the buzz over Pavano when Matt Clement is available. Maybe I am looking at the numbers wrong, but to me both of these guys are risky, but at least Clement has the peripherals to indicate he might be bona fide.

[Crash Course]

Originally Posted by Jim Rice

Not much if he doesn't want to stay in Florida anyway, which seems to be the case.

There are stories that he wants to stay in Florida, FWIW:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/...lins_1102.html

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/st...p-212902c.html

http://florida.marlins.mlb.com/NASAp..._fla&fext=.jsp

Seems he and Loria get along.

[Jim Rice]

Originally Posted by Crash Course

There are stories that he wants to stay in Florida, FWIW:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/...lins_1102.html

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/st...p-212902c.html

http://florida.marlins.mlb.com/NASAp..._fla&fext=.jsp

Seems he and Loria get along.

And, FWIW, there are stories that playing in Fenway was his childhood dream and he now would be thrilled to have Curt Schilling as his mentor. Again, for the Sox at least, I doubt it would take much more than Florida's offer to make his change his address.

[Crash Course]

Originally Posted by KCBOOMER

I am just surprised at all the buzz over Pavano when Matt Clement is available. Maybe I am looking at the numbers wrong, but to me both of these guys are risky, but at least Clement has the peripherals to indicate he might be bona fide.

Ditto that - plus Clement is more of a K-pitcher than Pavano, IIRC. And, K-rates are usually a sign of someone with "stuff" as opposed to the contact type pitcher who can fade quickly.

Only thing is, assuming that Clement pitches for a non-Cub team in 2004, it will be his 4th team in 6 years. Perhaps there's something behind the scenes not to like there? (Was he the guy who once stole a bike, while a pro, for laughs? Or, am I confusing him with another former west coast pitcher?) Whereas with Pavano, most reports have him as a stand-up, leader, type guy.

[Crash Course]

Duh! It was Shawn Estes that took the bike!
http://www.chron.com/cgi-bin/auth/st...97/nlwest.html

[captain_napalm]

Originally Posted by Crash Course

Only thing is, assuming that Clement pitches for a non-Cub team in 2004, it will be his 4th team in 6 years. Perhaps there's something behind the scenes not to like there? (Was he the guy who once stole a bike, while a pro, for laughs? Or, am I confusing him with another former west coast pitcher?) Whereas with Pavano, most reports have him as a stand-up, leader, type guy.

I don't know what goes on behind the scenes, but there are other reasons for player movement besides clubhouse reasons.

[Crash Course]

Originally Posted by Jim Rice

And, FWIW, there are stories that playing in Fenway was his childhood dream and he now would be thrilled to have Curt Schilling as his mentor. Again, for the Sox at least, I doubt it would take much more than Florida's offer to make his change his address.

Here's some recent feedback on that:
http://msn.foxsports.com/story/3199144

It's possible the Red Sox, Orioles, Mariners or Tigers might overpay for free-agent RHP Carl Pavano, but some in the industry suspect that Pavano will return to the Marlins if the team increases its offer from three to four years. If the Red Sox re-sign Martinez, it might be difficult for them to land Pavano and still address other needs. As for the Yankees, if Pavano truly wanted to play for them, he probably would not have fired Derek Jeter's agent, Casey Close. ...

[Crash Course]

I heard an interview with Pavano today on WFAN in NYC around 5:30. He came across as thoughtful and sincere. Reading in between the lines of what he was saying, it sounds like it will be between Boston and the Yankees. Since he was a Red Sox fan, and his a Schilling fan, I bet he goes to the Sox.

He pretty much stated the same conditions as before - with money being last - winning organization, good defense, the park, etc. - but, for the 1st time I heard, he added "some experienced vet pitchers already on the staff."

FWIW, he said really nice things about Mel Stottlemyre. Strange.

[Crash Course]

then again.........http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/7988141

The urgency on clubs looking to add starting pitching is about to increase because the New York Yankees were closing in on a deal with right-hander Carl Pavano on Saturday morning, sources close to the talks told SportsLine.com.

The package is described as a four-year deal between $40 and $46 million. While rumors were swirling that the deal was finished, the source cautioned that a few details remain to be worked out. Pavano still must pass a physical exam, among other things.

[Crash Course]

Tiger press (which I guess is what we would get if Trouser Press and Tiger Beat got drunk together one night) is saying it's a done deal: http://www.detnews.com/2004/tigers/0.../c07-31025.htm

Carl Pavano decided Saturday he wanted to pitch for the Yankees, and his agent and New York closed in on a four-year contract worth about $39 million.

Pavano called his agent, Scott Shapiro, on Saturday morning and informed him of his decision.

"Number one, he wants to win," Shapiro said.

Anaheim, Baltimore, Boston, Detroit and Seattle also sought the right-hander, 18-8 with a 3.00 earned-run average for Florida last season.

Shapiro said his next step was to meet with Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman to complete an agreement. Pavano and Shapiro met with the Yankees in New York last weekend, and Shapiro was confident they's reach agreement on a contract.

"We have to really hunker down and have some serious negotiations to hammer out the deal," Shapiro said.

The Yankees expect the agreement will be worth about $39 million, the Assocaited Press reported, and the contract could contain an option for a fifth season.

[captain_napalm]

NY Daily News has reported it as well, contingent on Pavano passing a physical...