Manny And The Mets

[Crash Course]

A report in Newsday today reads:

The Mets have been internally discussing the viability of acquiring World Series MVP Manny Ramirez as the antidote to their offensive woes. But if they can't work out a deal with the Red Sox - and Ramirez's Series heroics are a serious setback to their chances - the Mets might consider Sammy Sosa instead, people familiar with the Mets' thinking say.

Ramirez tops the Mets' list of outfield options. But unlike last winter, when the Red Sox placed Ramirez on irrevocable waivers, his stock is soaring now and his $20-million salary probably isn't reason enough for Boston to move him. One Red Sox executive called it "pretty unlikely" that they'd trade Ramirez; another termed it "a long shot."

The Manny to the Mets thing is an interesting item to me. Remember, last winter, the Sox were willing to let Manny walk to anyone who would take his contract. Now, after an MVPish season and post-season, that seems to have changed. Look's like Boston is willing to hold and not get out of that contract. But, to free themselves of Manny's dough would give the Sox huge flexibility.

On the Mike & Mike Show on ESPN Radio yesterday AM, I heard Theo Epstein (the Sox GM) interviewed on resigning Pedro, et al. And, the mantra from Theo, repeated often, was 'We'd like to retain as many as possible off this team - but, only if it fits into the what's best for the team plan' (meaning we're not going to blow the budget on one or two or three guys).

Now, is not Manny's contract a contradiction to that approach? Why not trade him now, 12 months after you wanted to get rid of him so badly?

But, then, do you open yourself up to The Curse of the King Nut Man-Ram the Uncommon?

Spooky stuff - and just in time for Halloween.

[Jim Rice]

Originally Posted by Crash Course

On the Mike & Mike Show on ESPN Radio yesterday AM, I heard Theo Epstein (the Sox GM) interviewed on resigning Pedro, et al. And, the mantra from Theo, repeated often, was 'We'd like to retain as many as possible off this team - but, only if it fits into the what's best for the team plan' (meaning we're not going to blow the budget on one or two or three guys).

Now, is not Manny's contract a contradiction to that approach? Why not trade him now, 12 months after you wanted to get rid of him so badly?

For a few reasons, the first one being that they wanted to get rid of Manny last year at a time they were planning to add A-Rod's huge contract. They can afford one $20 million deal, but not two.

The biggest reason, though, is that the team currently has a lot of financial flexibility compared to years past. Assuming, as I've seen reported on several occasions, that the Red Sox intend to cut about $10 million from this year's payroll, they still have a lot to spend this winter. The most recent number I saw for their payroll in '04 was $128 million, so let's say their '05 budget is $118. Without B.K.Kim, for whom a trade to Japan is already in the works, they have about $69 million already committed, giving them $49 million to spend.

They have a lot of free agents, and therefore a lot of holes to fill, but most aren't expensive ones. They already have three starters, a closer, their entire outfield, two first basemen and their DH under contract, along with a new third baseman (Youkilis) if they choose to let Mueller go, and a fourth outfielder in Dave Roberts. They need to re-sign some bench players (Mirabelli, Kapler, McCarty, backup middle infielders) but that only cost them about about $4 million in '04, and I suspect will cost about that much in '05. The need some set-up arms in the bullpen, and those generally run between $2.5-$3.5 million each (unless you're the Yankees, who are paying Steve Karsay $6 million). So call five bullpen arms about $14 million, particularly since they are likely to let one of their youngsters win a spot out there at the bargain price of $300K. My guess is that they'll re-sign Mueller as well (assuming he wants to stay) since he's very versatile (3B, 2B, switch-hitter) and won't cost much, but the Sox won't have to add payroll to do so becuase they will likely deal away Mientkiewicz since it doesn't make a lot of sense to pay a guy nearly $3 million to be Millar's late-inning caddy.

That leaves $31 million to sign two starters, a shortstop, a 2nd baseman, and re-sign Varitek.

Varitek is their top priority, and let's assume they overpay to keep him by giving him Posada/I-Rod money. I think that's more than they'll actually pay, but let's be conservative and say they give it to him anyway. That's about $9 million. Say they get a Pavano/Radke type for another $10 million as a replacement of Pedro.

Let's say that leaves them about $12 million to fill shortstop, second base and the final rotation spot. What did Cabrera, Bellhorn and Lowe make in '04? $11 million. So they can easily fill their openings for the money they have available AND still cut about $10 million off the payroll if they choose to. If they choose to keep the payroll where they were in '04, they could re-sign Pedro for roughly what Schilling makes as well as spend big on Pavano/Radke to replace Lowe. Or, since he's younger, bring back Lowe instead of Pedro, sign Pavano/Radke, and have about $15 million left to sign a SS and 2B. Since they have Hanley Ramirez as their top prospect, who is likely to be starting at SS or 2B in '06, they're probably more likely to spend their money on pitching, especially since there will be a lot of people bidding on it this year. Maybe they'll proactively re-re-negotiate Ortiz's deal too, to keep him happy.

Regardless, it's clear that they have a lot more flexibility than in years past, so Manny's contract (and attitude for thta matter) isn't nearly as problematic as it was this time last year.

[Makofan]

Knowing the Mets, they would make the horrible decision to sign Sosa

[Crash Course]

Originally Posted by Jim Rice

Regardless, it's clear that they have a lot more flexibility than in years past, so Manny's contract (and attitude for thta matter) isn't nearly as problematic as it was this time last year.

But, you also have to factor in the supply and demand impact. Have you seen the list of Free Agents for this off-season? It's not a very pretty or deep group. Therefore, if you want one of the few "good" players out there, most likely, the rate is going to be more than in prior years when the market may have been deeper. And, if you can turn a $20 million LF into a $15 million LF (Magglio Ordonez?) that extra $5 million a year can help.

I found it interesting that the Sox sources said it (dealing Manny) was "pretty unlikely" and "a long shot."

That's still leaving the door open. If Varitek walks - and the Mets offered Piazza and a blue chip prospect (Ambiorix Concepcion?) for Manny, I think the Sox would at least discuss it internally, and consider it.

[Crash Course]

Originally Posted by Makofan

Knowing the Mets, they would make the horrible decision to sign Sosa

Whether it's Sosa or Manny, Mets fans are still not going to forget that it could have been A-Rod or Vlad for the same money.

[JamesI]

Boston won't drop Manny, the waivers did what they hoiped, make him grow up a little...
Sosa to the Mess? Ouch...

[Joseph]

I hope they don't drop manny, and I really don't hope they are thinking about piazza. They could make kevin millar wear the gear, and have a better catcher.

[Jim Rice]

Originally Posted by Crash Course

...If Varitek walks - and the Mets offered Piazza and a blue chip prospect (Ambiorix Concepcion?) for Manny, I think the Sox would at least discuss it internally, and consider it.

Good Lord, if Piazza is our catching option, I'd rather pay Mirabelli $2 or $3 million to be the everyday guy and throw the rest of the money at pitchers. I think the Sox have already demonstrated that they value defense highly enough that making Mike Piazza their catcher is among the more remote possibilities to consider. And they already have better, cheaper DH.

As far as supply and demand goes, there are going to be over 200 free agents this winter and the $49 million (or so) the Sox will have to spend is going to be among the larger pools of money in play. Hey, no one wanted Mark Bellhorn last year, or Bill Mueller and David Ortiz the year before, but those moves worked out pretty well for Theo. With the market for players dropping over the past couple of years, my bet is that they feel their pool of dollars is ample to fill their holes without dealing Manny away. And if they find that they do need even more flexibility, it's far more likely that they would take him up his his earlier offer to re-structure his deal to defer some dollars and drop his current salary to the $14-$15 million range.

[KCBOOMER]

The BoSox were no more going to let Manny walk on waivers than they were going to sign me to a $20M contract. That was all posturing. If they traded him they were going to get value.

The problem with Manny is he will be 33 next season and still has 4 years on his contract at $19M per year. The Mets can afford him, but they would be better off developing players instead of taking on a contract that could become an albatross.

[Tribefan1968]

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Im a manny fan but he seems to be either dumb or daydreaming much of the time in the outfield....I would not want him if he making over 12 mil or so....

TRIBEFAN1968

[hmrsf]

Manny is easily distracted. I am a Manny watcher. When I am at a game and it is a blow out I watch Manny in the field. He spends his time taking his glove on taking it off, wiggling his fingers, waving to the crowd, talking to the people on the wall, waving to people in left field, wiggling his fingers putting his glove back on.......bird, take the glove off....I guess he is not the only one easily distracted.

[Joseph]

Originally Posted by hmrsf

Manny is easily distracted. I am a Manny watcher. When I am at a game and it is a blow out I watch Manny in the field. He spends his time taking his glove on taking it off, wiggling his fingers, waving to the crowd, talking to the people on the wall, waving to people in left field, wiggling his fingers putting his glove back on.......bird, take the glove off....I guess he is not the only one easily distracted.

I concur

it's exactly like what bored little leaguers look like when they play the outfield.

My favorite amnny moment was at a game earier this year. The red sox were just about to take the field,then all of a sudden manny and just manny starts running out onto the field full speed. He runs all the way out to right with his hand raised, not thinking to glance back and see if his teammates are behind him while everybody in the crowd is laughing. Everybody in the dugout was rolling over laughing too.

[captain_napalm]

I'm still laughing about him cutting off a throw from Johnny Damon