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10-04-2004, 05:41 PM
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#1 |
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Inducted Into The NetShrine Assembly of Fame
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Pythagorean Records
Per ESPN.com, these are the Pythagorean records of the playoff teams this year -
AMERICAN LEAGUE Boston, 98-64 Anaheim, 91-71 Minnesota, 89-73 New York, 89-73 NATIONAL LEAGUE St. Louis, 102-60 Atlanta, 96-66 Houston, 92-70 Los Angeles, 90-72 The AL teams were the top four projected records in the league. The NL teams were 1-2 and 4-5, with the #3 Cubs (95-67) performing well below expectations. An interesting side note: Boston has a 7-game Pythagorean lead over Anaheim. In the division era, no American League team has ever held a 7-game or more Pythagorean lead over the next closest team and NOT made the World Series, though it should be noted that this season is the first time a team has done that and not had home-field advantage in the playoffs. Conversely, in the NL, the Cards have a 6-game Pythagorean lead over Atlanta. In five different years, an NL team has held a lead that large or greater and MISSED the World Series ('88 Mets, 9.5 games; '93 Braves, 6 games; '97 Braves, 10 games; '98 Braves AND Astros, 13 games; '00 Giants, 6 games). Don't know if that tells us anything, but it's interesting. (Historical data courtesy baseball-reference.com) |
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10-04-2004, 05:58 PM
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#2 | |
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NetShrine Creator & Curator
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Quote:
Very interesting! Worth watching.
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Steve, Forum Admin Hit Grass, Win Salad Man, this is baseball. You gotta stop thinking. Just have fun. - Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez, in The Sandlot I've been going to games since August 8, 1973....and on August 22, 2004, finally, a foul ball came my way. I had to reach for it, and it deflected off the tip of my right index finger. Shoot, if I was only 4 inches taller!  Have you read The Baseball Same Game? |
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10-04-2004, 06:45 PM
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#3 |
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"...it should be noted that this season is the first time a team has done that and not had home-field advantage in the playoffs."
That's a pretty big note, though, since NY dramatically overperformed vs the Ex W-L record, while the other three AL teams were well within normal range. Nice research, JR. |
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10-04-2004, 10:52 PM
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#4 |
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Hear, hear. Well done. Wish I'd read this before I made my playoff picks.
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"Let's let bye-byes be bye-byes." --The Greatest Leadoff Hitter of All Time |
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10-05-2004, 09:43 AM
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#5 |
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NetShrine Creator & Curator
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FWIW, the Yankees PW% went out the window with that 20-something to zip loss to the Indians.
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Steve, Forum Admin Hit Grass, Win Salad Man, this is baseball. You gotta stop thinking. Just have fun. - Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez, in The Sandlot I've been going to games since August 8, 1973....and on August 22, 2004, finally, a foul ball came my way. I had to reach for it, and it deflected off the tip of my right index finger. Shoot, if I was only 4 inches taller! Have you read The Baseball Same Game? |
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10-05-2004, 12:32 PM
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#6 | |
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You'd think so, but that really isn't the case. That 22-0 blowout by the Tribe made a difference of ONE game in the Pythagorean Expected W-L record. In general, losses and wins by big margins don't make so much a difference as W-L% in close games, especially for teams that exceed their Expected W-L%. The Yanks were 23-16 in 1-run games this year, which is good. They were also 26-8 in 2-run decisions, which is great. THAT made all the difference. |
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10-08-2004, 09:11 AM
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#7 | |
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Inducted Into The NetShrine Assembly of Fame
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Yeah, that argument doesn't really hold. Even if you wanted to exclude blowouts, you couldn't cherry-pick them by just grabbing the worst loss and throwing it out. You'd have to be even-handed, and throw out both big losses AND big wins. Doing that for the Yanks, excluding their five biggest losses and their five biggest wins, yields a Pythagorean winning percentage of .556, for a 162-game record of 90-72. That's a game better than when all of their outcomes are included, but it's still significantly lower than their actual record, so it's safe to say blowouts in either direction aren't going to provide the explanation for the discrepancy. |
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10-21-2004, 04:52 PM
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#8 | |
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Inducted Into The NetShrine Assembly of Fame
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Quote:
Glad to see they decided to make history in a different way... |
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