What Bill James looks for in a player...

[Joseph]

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/NASApp/...news&fext=.jsp

What stats does James first look at when he evaluates players?

"Well, I think the more critical question is what do you look at second. I think the things I look at first are the same things everybody else does. Won-loss record and ERA for a pitcher and home runs, RBIs and batting average for a batter," said James. "Those are the first things you see and the first things you look at. The real question is what do you look at second."

Fair enough. So what does James look at second when he looks at hitters?

"I look at the gap between batting average and on-base percentage," said James. "One thing I like to do is add up the runs scored and the RBI and compare it to the hits. If the guy's got 150 hits and 110 runs scored-plus RBIs, he's probably not helping you. If he has 150 hits and 180 runs scored-plus RBIs, he almost certainly is helping you, so that's another way to look at it."

W-L, RBIs, and batting avg? Is Bill behind the times here?

If I see a guy with 150 hits and 110 RS+RBI, I would assume that his teammates didn't get onbase before and after he did.

[Caught Lookin']

I think that that is really an honest answer. Honestly, don't the boxscore numbers stand out first and foremost to all of us?

The OBP/AVG gap is what I look at second.

110 RS+RBI could only be reasonable for a good player on the Tigers last year. Any quality player is going to do one of those two things, either be hitting to get on base and score, or hitting while they're on. If you're hitting, you'll inevitably do those things.

[nyy26wc]

Originally Posted by Joseph

W-L, RBIs, and batting avg? Is Bill behind the times here?

This supports my belief that there were 2 Bill James's. There was the excellent one of the 1980s and then there is the lackluster one since then.

[TGwynn19]

IMO, there could be no answer Bill James could give that would make the Sabrcommunity happy.

[Crash Course]

Well, according to this logic, Ichiro is one of the worst batters in the bigs...........he's like Alex Cora bad.

	        OBA	BA	OBA-BA	R	RBI	H	BI+R-H
Barry Bonds	0.529	0.341	0.188	111	90	133	68
Jason Giambi	0.412	0.25	0.162	97	107	134	70
Larry Walker	0.422	0.284	0.138	86	79	129	36
Brian Giles	0.427	0.299	0.128	93	88	147	34
Carlos Delgado	0.426	0.302	0.124	117	145	172	90
Jorge Posada	0.405	0.281	0.124	83	101	135	49
Lance Berkman	0.412	0.288	0.124	110	93	155	48
Frank Thomas	0.39	0.267	0.123	87	105	146	46
Jim Thome	0.385	0.266	0.119	111	131	154	88
Jose Cruz Jr.	0.366	0.25	0.116	90	68	135	23
Erubiel Durazo	0.374	0.259	0.115	92	77	139	30
Bobby Kielty	0.358	0.244	0.114	71	57	104	24
Edgar Martinez	0.406	0.294	0.112	72	98	146	24
Brad Wilkerson	0.38	0.268	0.112	78	77	135	20
Jim Edmonds	0.385	0.275	0.11	89	89	123	55
Bobby Abreu	0.409	0.3	0.109	99	101	173	27
Derrek Lee	0.379	0.271	0.108	91	92	146	37
Richie Sexson	0.379	0.272	0.107	97	124	165	56
Bernie Williams	0.367	0.263	0.104	77	64	117	24
John Olerud	0.372	0.269	0.103	64	83	145	2
Manny Ramirez	0.427	0.325	0.102	117	104	185	36
Corey Koskie	0.393	0.292	0.101	76	69	137	8
Todd Helton	0.458	0.358	0.1	135	117	209	43
Pat Burrell	0.309	0.209	0.1	57	64	109	12
Rafael Palmeiro	0.359	0.26	0.099	92	112	146	58
Tim Salmon	0.374	0.275	0.099	78	72	145	5
Alex Rodriguez	0.396	0.298	0.098	124	118	181	61
Luis Gonzalez	0.402	0.304	0.098	92	104	176	20
Chipper Jones	0.402	0.305	0.097	103	106	169	40
Scott Rolen	0.382	0.286	0.096	98	104	160	42
Jeff Bagwell	0.373	0.278	0.095	109	100	168	41
D. Mientkiewicz	0.393	0.3	0.093	67	65	146	-14
Mike Cameron	0.344	0.253	0.091	74	76	135	15
Trot Nixon	0.396	0.306	0.09	81	87	135	33
Scott Hatteberg	0.342	0.253	0.089	63	61	137	-13
Gary Sheffield	0.419	0.33	0.089	126	132	190	68
Jose Vidro	0.397	0.31	0.087	77	65	158	-16
Eric Hinske	0.329	0.243	0.086	74	63	109	28
Craig Biggio	0.35	0.264	0.086	102	62	166	-2
Bobby Higginson	0.32	0.235	0.085	61	52	110	3
Eric Young	0.336	0.251	0.085	80	34	119	-5
Carlos Pena	0.332	0.248	0.084	51	50	112	-11
Carlos Beltran	0.389	0.307	0.082	102	100	160	42
David Ortiz	0.369	0.288	0.081	79	101	129	51
Albert Pujols	0.439	0.359	0.08	137	124	212	49
Chris Stynes	0.335	0.255	0.08	71	73	113	31
Carl Everett	0.366	0.287	0.079	93	92	151	34
Geoff Jenkins	0.375	0.296	0.079	81	95	144	32
Sammy Sosa	0.358	0.279	0.079	99	103	144	58
Tino Martinez	0.352	0.273	0.079	66	69	130	5
Jason Varitek	0.351	0.273	0.078	63	85	123	25
Mark Kotsay	0.343	0.266	0.077	64	38	128	-26
Moises Alou	0.357	0.28	0.077	83	91	158	16
Jose Valentin	0.313	0.237	0.076	79	74	119	34
Richard Hidalgo	0.385	0.309	0.076	91	88	159	20
Steve Finley	0.363	0.287	0.076	82	70	148	4
D'A. Jimenez	0.349	0.273	0.076	69	57	153	-27
Edgardo Alfonzo	0.334	0.259	0.075	56	81	133	4
Dmitri Young	0.372	0.297	0.075	78	85	167	-4
Roberto Alomar	0.333	0.258	0.075	76	39	133	-18
Adam Kennedy	0.344	0.269	0.075	71	49	121	-1
Shawn Green	0.355	0.28	0.075	84	85	171	-2
Marcus Giles	0.39	0.316	0.074	101	69	174	-4
Jason Kendall	0.399	0.325	0.074	84	58	191	-49
Brad Ausmus	0.303	0.229	0.074	43	47	103	-13
Mike Lowell	0.35	0.276	0.074	76	105	136	45
Ron Belliard	0.351	0.277	0.074	73	50	124	-1
David Eckstein	0.325	0.252	0.073	59	31	114	-24
Royce Clayton	0.301	0.228	0.073	49	39	110	-22
Travis Lee	0.348	0.275	0.073	75	70	149	-4
Bret Boone	0.366	0.294	0.072	111	117	183	45
Ivan Rodriguez	0.369	0.297	0.072	90	85	152	23
Mark Teixeira	0.331	0.259	0.072	66	84	137	13
Bill Mueller	0.398	0.326	0.072	85	85	171	-1
Kevin Millar	0.348	0.276	0.072	83	96	150	29
Johnny Damon	0.345	0.273	0.072	103	67	166	4
Raul Mondesi	0.343	0.272	0.071	83	71	142	12
Wes Helms	0.33	0.261	0.069	56	67	124	-1
Derek Jeter	0.393	0.324	0.069	87	52	156	-17
Eric Chavez	0.35	0.282	0.068	94	101	166	29
Brian Roberts	0.337	0.27	0.067	65	41	124	-18
Luis Castillo	0.381	0.314	0.067	99	39	187	-49
Alex Gonzalez	0.295	0.228	0.067	71	59	122	8
Ramon Santiago	0.292	0.225	0.067	41	29	100	-30
Hideki Matsui	0.353	0.287	0.066	82	106	179	9
G. Matthews Jr.	0.314	0.248	0.066	71	42	116	-3
Sean Burroughs	0.352	0.286	0.066	62	58	148	-28
Mark Ellis	0.313	0.248	0.065	78	52	137	-7
Scott Podsednik	0.379	0.314	0.065	100	58	175	-17
Edgar Renteria	0.394	0.33	0.064	96	100	194	2
Placido Polanco	0.352	0.289	0.063	87	63	142	8
Magglio Ordonez	0.38	0.317	0.063	95	99	192	2
Ty Wigginton	0.318	0.255	0.063	73	71	146	-2
Marlon Byrd	0.366	0.303	0.063	86	45	150	-19
Torii Hunter	0.312	0.25	0.062	83	102	145	40
Julio Lugo	0.333	0.271	0.062	64	55	135	-16
Paul Lo Duca	0.335	0.273	0.062	64	52	155	-39
Jose Hernandez	0.287	0.225	0.062	58	57	117	-2
Preston Wilson	0.343	0.282	0.061	94	141	169	66
Andruw Jones	0.338	0.277	0.061	101	116	165	52
Scott Spiezio	0.326	0.265	0.061	69	83	138	14
Desi Relaford	0.315	0.254	0.061	70	59	127	2
Aaron Boone	0.327	0.267	0.06	92	96	158	30
Jeromy Burnitz	0.299	0.239	0.06	63	77	111	29
Rafael Furcal	0.352	0.292	0.06	130	61	194	-3
Mike Lieberthal	0.373	0.313	0.06	68	81	159	-10
Orlando Hudson	0.328	0.268	0.06	54	57	127	-16
Sean Casey	0.35	0.291	0.059	71	80	167	-16
Miguel Tejada	0.336	0.278	0.058	98	106	177	27
Ramon Hernandez	0.331	0.273	0.058	70	78	132	16
Marlon Anderson	0.328	0.27	0.058	59	67	130	-4
Mark Loretta	0.372	0.314	0.058	74	72	185	-39
Jody Gerut	0.336	0.279	0.057	66	75	134	7
Joe Randa	0.348	0.291	0.057	80	72	146	6
Alex Gonzalez	0.313	0.256	0.057	52	77	135	-6
Shannon Stewart	0.364	0.307	0.057	90	73	176	-13
Jimmy Rollins	0.32	0.263	0.057	85	62	165	-18
Jeff Conine	0.338	0.282	0.056	88	95	163	20
Aubrey Huff	0.367	0.311	0.056	91	107	198	0
Kenny Lofton	0.352	0.296	0.056	97	46	162	-19
Juan Pierre	0.361	0.305	0.056	100	41	204	-63
Casey Blake	0.312	0.257	0.055	80	67	143	4
Jeff Kent	0.351	0.297	0.054	77	93	150	20
Jay Gibbons	0.33	0.277	0.053	80	100	173	7
Roger Cedeno	0.32	0.267	0.053	70	37	129	-22
Rondell White	0.341	0.289	0.052	62	87	141	8
Aramis Ramirez	0.324	0.272	0.052	75	106	165	16
Jay Payton	0.354	0.302	0.052	93	89	181	1
F.Catalanotto	0.351	0.299	0.052	83	59	146	-4
M. Grudzielanek	0.366	0.314	0.052	73	38	151	-40
Angel Berroa	0.338	0.287	0.051	92	73	163	2
Raul Ibanez	0.345	0.294	0.051	95	90	179	6
Randy Winn	0.346	0.295	0.051	103	75	177	1
Todd Walker	0.333	0.283	0.05	92	85	166	11
Hank Blalock	0.35	0.3	0.05	89	90	170	9
Adrian Beltre	0.29	0.24	0.05	50	80	134	-4
Orlando Cabrera	0.347	0.297	0.05	95	80	186	-11
Luis Rivas	0.308	0.259	0.049	69	43	123	-11
Alfonso Soriano	0.338	0.29	0.048	114	91	198	7
Jose Guillen	0.359	0.311	0.048	77	86	151	12
Terrence Long	0.293	0.245	0.048	64	61	119	6
A.J. Pierzynski	0.36	0.312	0.048	63	74	152	-15
Rich Aurilia	0.325	0.277	0.048	65	58	140	-17
Joe Crede	0.308	0.261	0.047	68	75	140	3
Ken Harvey	0.313	0.266	0.047	50	64	129	-15
Jack Wilson	0.303	0.256	0.047	58	62	143	-23
N, Garciaparra	0.345	0.301	0.044	120	105	198	27
Ju. Encarnacion	0.313	0.27	0.043	80	94	162	12
Endy Chavez	0.294	0.251	0.043	66	47	121	-8
Cristian Guzman	0.311	0.268	0.043	78	53	143	-12
Vernon Wells	0.359	0.317	0.042	118	117	215	20
Carlos Lee	0.331	0.291	0.04	100	113	181	32
Ichiro Suzuki	0.352	0.312	0.04	111	62	212	-39
Alex Cora	0.287	0.249	0.038	39	34	119	-46
Rocco Baldelli	0.326	0.289	0.037	89	78	184	-17
Tony Batista	0.27	0.235	0.035	76	99	148	27
S. Hillenbrand	0.314	0.28	0.034	60	97	144	13
Michael Young	0.339	0.306	0.033	106	72	204	-26
Vinny Castilla	0.31	0.277	0.033	65	76	150	-9
Alex Sanchez	0.319	0.287	0.032	58	32	160	-70
Cesar Izturis	0.282	0.251	0.031	47	40	140	-53
Garret Anderson	0.345	0.315	0.03	80	116	201	-5
Jacque Jones	0.333	0.304	0.029	76	69	157	-12
Carl Crawford	0.309	0.281	0.028	80	54	177	-43
Marquis Grissom	0.322	0.3	0.022	82	79	176	-15
Deivi Cruz	0.269	0.25	0.019	61	65	137	-11

[Crash Course]

Also on the chart above - - - that Chris Stynes guy is pretty close in ranking to some guy named Albert Pujols.

[Caught Lookin']

Originally Posted by TGwynn19

IMO, there could be no answer Bill James could give that would make the Sabrcommunity happy.

Here we go with this again. Bill James gives an answer about how he [presumably] evalutes a player's stats off the cuff, and we start with the stathead criticism. If James were to say something that was seriously off, then maybe this sentence would make sense. Bill James has earned the shielding from criticism about off hand quotes.

-----

Steve, this exactly the same issue as Beane bashing. I feel safe going out on the limb by saying that James' professional analysis is a little more indepth that this, and that no, he doesn't consider Ichiro! a bad hitter.

Or more fairly, since you'll object to the charge of "James bashing", perhaps you can explain what the relevance of your chart was other than a pointed shot at something James was quoted as saying. I doubt James was trying to come up with a measure to replace OPS or something.

[TGwynn19]

Originally Posted by Caught Lookin'

Here we go with this again. Bill James gives an answer about how he [presumably] evalutes a player's stats off the cuff, and we start with the stathead criticism. If James were to say something that was seriously off, then maybe this sentence would make sense. Bill James has earned the shielding from criticism about off hand quotes

Please re-read what I said. We are in agreement here.

[Caught Lookin']

Originally Posted by TGwynn19

Please re-read what I said. We are in agreement here.

Ah yes, I read that as unhappy. Cool. I'm feeling ya.

[nyy26wc]

Originally Posted by Caught Lookin'

Bill James has earned the shielding from criticism about off hand quotes.

Nobody has earned shielding from criticism.

[LeGrandOrange]

You know that full well, Lee.

[Crash Course]

Originally Posted by Caught Lookin'

Steve, this exactly the same issue as Beane bashing. I feel safe going out on the limb by saying that James' professional analysis is a little more indepth that this, and that no, he doesn't consider Ichiro! a bad hitter.

Or more fairly, since you'll object to the charge of "James bashing", perhaps you can explain what the relevance of your chart was other than a pointed shot at something James was quoted as saying. I doubt James was trying to come up with a measure to replace OPS or something.

According to the quote, James said "One thing I like to do is add up the runs scored and the RBI and compare it to the hits. If the guy's got 150 hits and 110 runs scored-plus RBIs, he's probably not helping you. If he has 150 hits and 180 runs scored-plus RBIs, he almost certainly is helping you, so that's another way to look at it."

So, if a guy like Ichiro gets 600+ PA and is "probably not helping you" is it a reach to say that the person saying that he's not helping feels he's a bad hitter?

As far as the "relevance of your chart," it was not a "a pointed shot at something James was quoted as saying" - more so, it was an effort or attempt an look at this topic deeper. If I told you that Brooke Burke was a beautiful woman - that would be interesting, and you could believe it from the initial glance of her. But, if I were to show you a picture of her without any clothes on, they you could "see it all" and really digest every square inch of her beauty with your eyes.

That's the purpose of the numbers/chart - you hear that OBA-BA and R+RBI-H is "whatever" - - - why not look at some actual names and results to see the claim without its clothes on?

[Skip]

I think you all are making mountains out of molehills. James says he looks at traditional stats first and comments that what matters is what you look at second. That's probably true for most, because what you see/are presented with first are still the traditional stats. I read him as trying to once again make the point that traditional stats AREN'T what's important.

His R+RBI-H measure I just take as simply him giving an example of a way to look at things differently. He uses the word 'probably'; it's not like he's bringing this down from Mt. James on a stone tablet.

I do think James is less important to the stathead world today than in the 1980s, but that's more because the world has caught up. 'We' dont need to try to bring down the pioneers just because 'we' can, standing on their shoulders, add even more. We can avoid overcrediting what he has to say today without falling into the 'since you're not now what you were then, you're crap' fallacy.

[nyy26wc]

Originally Posted by Crash Course

According to the quote, James said "One thing I like to do is add up the runs scored and the RBI and compare it to the hits. If the guy's got 150 hits and 110 runs scored-plus RBIs, he's probably not helping you. If he has 150 hits and 180 runs scored-plus RBIs, he almost certainly is helping you, so that's another way to look at it."

Of course, we know, and the old Bill James knew, that if one guy's got 150 hits and 110 R+RBI and the 2nd guy's got 180 R+RBI, the odds are the 2nd guy's got better teammates than the first.

As far as the "relevance of your chart," it was not a "a pointed shot at something James was quoted as saying" - more so, it was an effort or attempt an look at this topic deeper. If I told you that Brooke Burke was a beautiful woman - that would be interesting, and you could believe it from the initial glance of her. But, if I were to show you a picture of her without any clothes on, they you could "see it all" and really digest every square inch of her beauty with your eyes.

Also, I have no idea who Brooke Burke is, but I can say that if you told me that she was a beautiful woman and based that on things that don't tell us much about her beauty then you'd be taking a flawed look at things. But, if you said she was a beautiful woman and based it on meaningful criteria, then the whole nature of your analysis changes.

[nyy26wc]

Originally Posted by Skip

'since you're not now what you were then, you're crap' fallacy.

I don't believe I'm using that fallacy as far as James goes. While part of my problem with the current James is that he's not what he used to be, the other part is I'm completely unimpressed, even without comparing him to his past.