Mauer

[gyb13]

For reference, here's an older thread on Joe Mauer

Sheehan has an interesting discussion on Joe Mauer (premium subscribers only) today.

Sheehan argues that Mauer will not be a star behind the plate, largely due to his size (6'4) and the not-so-good history of catchers of that size. He runs a chart, similar to the one below, of catchers of that stature or taller who had more than 200 career AB:

RCAA                           RCAA      AB       AVG      OBA      SLG      HT     
1    Tom Haller                   76     3935     .257     .340     .414   6'4"     
2    Jim Pagliaroni               29     2465     .252     .344     .407   6'4"     
3    Cliff Johnson                17      493     .227     .360     .412   6'4"     
4    Eddie Taubensee              -3     2874     .273     .331     .430   6'4"     
5    Dan Walters                 -11      273     .234     .281     .348   6'4"     
6    Mark Bailey                 -13      949     .220     .337     .337   6'5"     
T7   Billy Bryan                 -16      968     .216     .284     .395   6'4"     
T7   Fran Healy                  -16     1326     .250     .329     .350   6'5"     
T7   Bobby Hughes                -16      319     .238     .287     .392   6'4"     
10   Chris Krug                  -19      214     .192     .245     .290   6'4"     
11   Marcus Jensen               -28      343     .184     .287     .289   6'4"     
12   Marc Sullivan               -32      360     .186     .236     .258   6'4"     
13   Sandy Martinez              -33      558     .233     .286     .337   6'4"     
14   Glenn Borgmann              -35     1294     .229     .325     .304   6'4"     
15   Haywood Sullivan            -41      851     .226     .312     .318   6'4"     
16   Tom Egan                    -43      979     .200     .266     .299   6'4"     
17   Ben Davis                   -45     1319     .241     .313     .368   6'4"     
18   Larry McLean                -47     2628     .263     .301     .323   6'5"     
19   Jamie Quirk                 -49     1609     .237     .304     .342   6'4"     
20   Mark Parent                 -66     1303     .214     .268     .375   6'5"     
21   Bob Tillman                 -69     2329     .232     .300     .371   6'4"     
22   Andy Allanson               -79     1486     .240     .283     .310   6'5"     
T23  Jody Davis                  -84     3557     .246     .309     .405   6'4"     
T23  Joel Skinner                -84     1441     .228     .269     .311   6'4"     
25   Johnny Edwards              -97     4577     .242     .311     .353   6'4"     
T26  Bob Melvin                  -98     1941     .233     .267     .335   6'4"     
T26  Sandy Alomar Jr.            -98     4125     .275     .311     .414   6'5"     
28   Paul Casanova              -146     2786     .225     .252     .319   6'4"     
29   Jack Boyle                 -164     2636     .239     .304     .305   6'4"     

not too many great hitting catchers here. Sheehan says Mauer may turn out like a Mike Sweeney - too big/good with the bat to stay behind the plate, moved to 1B.

That's all fine and dandy, but a tad too simplistic for my tastes. For example, if one were to lower the height requirement by just one inch, that list changes dramatically, as you get players like Mike Piazza, Carlton Fisk, Ernie Lombardi, and Bill Freehan at the top.

Drop it to 6'2 and you add Joe Torre, Gary Carter, Mickey Tettleton, Jorge Posada, and Darren Daulton.

I admire Sheehan's analysis, but I feel like he may have been a bit off on this one.

[Crash Course]

People on catchers are funny.
The Twins catching prospect is too tall.
The Yankees catching prospect is too short.
People can never make up their mind.
Most reports say the kid is a fine defender - - height be darned.

[Endymion]

One thing I aggree with though is it may be too early to annoint him the AL ROY. He's had a whole half season above High A. He could have a tough learning curve stepping into the majors. The Twins must believe in him though if they got rid of Pierzynski.

Even A-Rod floated in the low .200s when he first came up at a young age.

[KCBOOMER]

Gybby is basically repeating what Aaron Gleeman said in his blog, but I think both of them don't realize that the evidence they presented supports Sheehan's contention and makes it seem like being 6'4" is not a good thing for any position player. Sure there are more good player at 6'3". Its because being 6'4" is not good.

Don't ask me why but that is the way the numbers tumble.

[TGwynn19]

I saw him play last Thursday v. the Red Sox. He looked impressive. Nice stroke and looked like he had pretty good arm. Tough to tell about an arm when I only saw him throw to second after warming up the pitcher.


He should be a good hitter. He only struck out once in 4 years in HS.

[Crash Course]

And his Dad sells a mean hitting tool!

[SmedIndy]

Funny, Ripken was too tall to be a SS. Look how he turned out.

[rc3000]

Originally Posted by KCBOOMER

Its because being 6'4" is not good.

Don't ask me why but that is the way the numbers tumble.

Now keep in mind I am not claiming this is fact, it is just a theory.

We are trying to determine if based on historical comparisons to other large players he won't succeed because previous tall players didn't succeed. I propose you can't compare it because in the 70's,80's and 90's a kid 6'4" is pushed towards football or in the 50's and early 60's he is pushed towards basketball so the sample size isn't the greatest. This kid has obviously displayed great baseball talent. Been probably funneled towards baseball his whole life. I don't think size is a large factor in whether he succeeds or not.

[sweaver]

Until very recently, pitchers over 6'7" had no record of success either.

[Firpo Marberry]

My immediate thought is so many of these guys played years ago.

1) Athletes get taller all the time.

2) Maybe these guys, back in those days, just got stuck behind the plate because they had some skills, good size, but didn't have the ability to contribute much of anywhere else.

3) I'd like to see the stats on successful 6-4 third basemen, or centerfielders. Scott Stahoviak and Mike Cuddyer are two Minnesota Twins who had good size. And when they swung a bat, it was as if they were using a really long, wet, Look magazine. The ball never went anywhere.

Maybe if they had been shorter. . . .

[sweaver]

The long swing is often a problem with taller players, and part of the reason why short, stocky guys are so successful. But to make the comparison meaningful, to test a 6'4" catcher Sheehan shouldn't have surveyed catchers that tall or taller, but rather those 6'3" to 6'5".

But that would have defeated his purpose in writing the article. It's sad to see a good writer like Sheehan using a faulty premise usually seen in the work of bad writers.

[gyb13]

i'm not sure if that was his purpose in writing the article. just that his initial methodology was incorrect.

[TGwynn19]

I saw him again yesterday and will see him once more on Saturday. There is just something about the way he looks at the plate.....he just LOOKS like he can hit. That is about as scientific as I can get.