40 Taters In 2004

Crash Course · 02-26-2004, 01:45 PM

In 2003, 10 players had 40 or more HR for the season.

How many players will hit 40+ HR in 2004, and why?

bigbats · 02-26-2004, 01:52 PM

I don't think power numbers will go down any this year. How big was Hank Aaron?

jvonbokel · 02-26-2004, 01:53 PM

My answer (5-10) was based more on recent stats than anything else:

2000: 15
2001: 12
2002: 8
2003: 10

Seems to be a general decline happening there, so something just under 10 sounds about right.

Crash Course · 02-26-2004, 01:58 PM

I'm thinking less than 5 this year.

lonelybrewerfan · 02-26-2004, 02:00 PM

Ok, so we can say what we want about players being off the juice now and its obvious that the pitching is better but I think that we will be at least ten players hit 40 bombs this year,

Bonds
Pujols
Delgado
Vlad (hopefully he will be healthy)
Sheff
Sexson
Manny Ramirez
Sosa
Giambi
A-Rod
Raffy
A. Soriano
Preston Wilson
Todd Helton

Ok, so that makes 14 that I think will do it and you can expect some breakouts, suprises, or better years (Blalock, A. Jones, B. Boone, Edmonds, Bagwell and others).

That is my very unscientific opinion

Caught Lookin' · 02-26-2004, 02:03 PM

Interesting, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA predicts only 3 (A-Rod, Bonds, Thome).

I don't think that's quite right - I would expect to see some more power this year. I'm in the 5-10 category.

BP's 3 plus Soriano in a better hitters park and Pujols at least.

Funny how no one writes outraged articles about how we don't see massive home run totals anymore - or at least writing about how that trend has fallen into the background.

Crash Course · 02-26-2004, 02:07 PM

Playing in NY will hurt A-Rod and Sheffield's chances, IMHO.

TimmyB · 02-26-2004, 02:17 PM

Between 5 and 10. There are still some guys with the ability to have some pop (see lonelybrewerfan's list), but... with so many guys deciding to (ahem) lose weight over the winter, the change of ballparks for a couple of sluggers... I can see those numbers dipping. Add in an injury here and there... the downward trend should continue.

Also, the ball is softer (ask Barry).

Golden Bear · 02-26-2004, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jvonbokel

My answer (5-10) was based more on recent stats than anything else:

2000: 15
2001: 12
2002: 8
2003: 10

Seems to be a general decline happening there, so something just under 10 sounds about right.

This comports with my thinking.

sweaver · 02-26-2004, 02:24 PM

5-10, same as the last two years.

SmedIndy · 02-26-2004, 03:25 PM

Between 5 and 10 - probably it will be a gradual decline, not steep.

captain_napalm · 02-26-2004, 03:46 PM

I said 11-15. I am curious to see how the new parks in Philly & San Diego will play.

gyb13 · 02-26-2004, 03:58 PM

i'm with the majority on this one...

Skip · 02-26-2004, 04:02 PM

I said 5-10 too, just didnt post to that effect.

manny tortolero · 02-26-2004, 04:14 PM

I don't think is risky to think in 10 to 15, basically:
Bonds
Pujols
Delgado
Vlad
Sexson
Sosa
Giambi
A-Rod
A. Soriano
Todd Helton
Thomas
Thome
Probably some guys, as Lopez and Sheffield, won't get the number because the change of park. Actually I hope ALrod can reached although until I know the last rhb yankee to put 40+ in one season was Joe Dimaggio.

View Poll Results: How many players will hit 40+ HR in 2004?
Less than 5	2	4.26%
Between 5 and 10	28	59.57%
Between 11 and 15	14	29.79%
Between 16 and 20	1	2.13%
Between 21 and 25	1	2.13%
More Than 25 Players	1	2.13%
Just 1 Player	0	0%
Only 2 Players	0	0%
None	0	0%
Other - please state in thread	0	0%
Voters: 47. You may not vote on this poll

02-26-2004, 01:45 PM	#1
Crash Course NetShrine Creator & Curator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: NetShrine WHQ Posts: 10,070	40 Taters In 2004 In 2003, 10 players had 40 or more HR for the season. How many players will hit 40+ HR in 2004, and why? __________________ Steve, Forum Admin Hit Grass, Win Salad Man, this is baseball. You gotta stop thinking. Just have fun. - Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez, in The Sandlot I've been going to games since August 8, 1973....and on August 22, 2004, finally, a foul ball came my way. I had to reach for it, and it deflected off the tip of my right index finger. Shoot, if I was only 4 inches taller! Have you read The Baseball Same Game?

02-26-2004, 01:58 PM	#4
Crash Course NetShrine Creator & Curator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: NetShrine WHQ Posts: 10,070	I'm thinking less than 5 this year. __________________ Steve, Forum Admin Hit Grass, Win Salad Man, this is baseball. You gotta stop thinking. Just have fun. - Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez, in The Sandlot I've been going to games since August 8, 1973....and on August 22, 2004, finally, a foul ball came my way. I had to reach for it, and it deflected off the tip of my right index finger. Shoot, if I was only 4 inches taller! Have you read The Baseball Same Game?

02-26-2004, 02:00 PM	#5
lonelybrewerfan NetShrine MVP Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: madison, WI Posts: 152	Ok, so we can say what we want about players being off the juice now and its obvious that the pitching is better but I think that we will be at least ten players hit 40 bombs this year, Bonds Pujols Delgado Vlad (hopefully he will be healthy) Sheff Sexson Manny Ramirez Sosa Giambi A-Rod Raffy A. Soriano Preston Wilson Todd Helton Ok, so that makes 14 that I think will do it and you can expect some breakouts, suprises, or better years (Blalock, A. Jones, B. Boone, Edmonds, Bagwell and others). That is my very unscientific opinion __________________ "One time, I got pulled over at 4 a.m. I was fined $75 for being intoxicated and $400 for being with the Phillies." - Bob Uecker

02-26-2004, 02:03 PM	#6
Caught Lookin' NetShrine All-Star Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Sacramento, CA Posts: 130	Interesting, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA predicts only 3 (A-Rod, Bonds, Thome). I don't think that's quite right - I would expect to see some more power this year. I'm in the 5-10 category. BP's 3 plus Soriano in a better hitters park and Pujols at least. Funny how no one writes outraged articles about how we don't see massive home run totals anymore - or at least writing about how that trend has fallen into the background. __________________ MJ If you earnestly believe that you can compensate for a lack of skill by doubling your efforts, there is no limit to what you can't do.

02-26-2004, 01:52 PM	#2
bigbats Having A NetShrine Cup Of Coffee Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Maryland Posts: 14	I don't think power numbers will go down any this year. How big was Hank Aaron?

02-26-2004, 01:53 PM	#3
jvonbokel NetShrine Rookie Of The Year Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: St. Louis, MO Posts: 71	My answer (5-10) was based more on recent stats than anything else: 2000: 15 2001: 12 2002: 8 2003: 10 Seems to be a general decline happening there, so something just under 10 sounds about right.

02-26-2004, 02:07 PM	#7
Crash Course NetShrine Creator & Curator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: NetShrine WHQ Posts: 10,070	Playing in NY will hurt A-Rod and Sheffield's chances, IMHO. __________________ Steve, Forum Admin Hit Grass, Win Salad Man, this is baseball. You gotta stop thinking. Just have fun. - Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez, in The Sandlot I've been going to games since August 8, 1973....and on August 22, 2004, finally, a foul ball came my way. I had to reach for it, and it deflected off the tip of my right index finger. Shoot, if I was only 4 inches taller! Have you read The Baseball Same Game?

02-26-2004, 02:17 PM	#8
TimmyB NetShrine's Magic 8-Ball Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Where the cops speak slow and the air is nice Posts: 2,591	Between 5 and 10. There are still some guys with the ability to have some pop (see lonelybrewerfan's list), but... with so many guys deciding to (ahem) lose weight over the winter, the change of ballparks for a couple of sluggers... I can see those numbers dipping. Add in an injury here and there... the downward trend should continue. Also, the ball is softer (ask Barry).

02-26-2004, 02:24 PM	#10
sweaver Netshrine Cleanup Hitter Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: The Mountain State Posts: 8,883	5-10, same as the last two years.

02-26-2004, 03:25 PM	#11
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	Between 5 and 10 - probably it will be a gradual decline, not steep.

02-26-2004, 03:46 PM	#12
captain_napalm NetShrine All-Century Team Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: ny Posts: 1,611	I said 11-15. I am curious to see how the new parks in Philly & San Diego will play. __________________ "Cheating is baseball's oldest profession. No other game is so rich in skullduggery, so suited to it or so proud of it." - Thomas Boswell

02-26-2004, 03:58 PM	#13
gyb13 NS Omnipresent Brasilian Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Crazy George's playground Posts: 10,903	i'm with the majority on this one... __________________ Gustavo NDF Moderator Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety. - Benjamin Franklin

02-26-2004, 04:02 PM	#14
Skip NetShrine Vagabond Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Louisville Posts: 7,866	I said 5-10 too, just didnt post to that effect.

02-26-2004, 04:14 PM	#15
manny tortolero NetShrine MVP Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Caracas, Venezuela Posts: 298	I don't think is risky to think in 10 to 15, basically: Bonds Pujols Delgado Vlad Sexson Sosa Giambi A-Rod A. Soriano Todd Helton Thomas Thome Probably some guys, as Lopez and Sheffield, won't get the number because the change of park. Actually I hope ALrod can reached although until I know the last rhb yankee to put 40+ in one season was Joe Dimaggio. __________________ I am writing from Caracas, Venezuela and not perfect english speaker, then please consider my grammar error with that perspective.

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