Team Outs Efficiency Percentage

[gyb13]

i think we've gotten lost in the trees

[Wolf Hopper]

Yup. Sad part is, I just have a guy feeling that the path to teasure is just out of sight........

[Wolf Hopper]

BAD DATA!
I've been working with bad data on my RCAA/RSAA tables - - I thought I fixed all of them - now realized that I have dupe Twins from 61 to 71 that should be Rangers. This COULD change some things........stay tuned.

[Wolf Hopper]

With corrected data!

I ran RSAA and RCAA for every team season since 1900, for all current teams - that's a total of 2052 team seasons.

In 626 of those 2052 team seasons, a team had BOTH RSAA and RCAA greater than zero.

In 48 of those 626 team seasons, a team had a RSAA/RCAA ratio between .85 and 1.15.

96% of those teams had a positive BODE.

Of those with a BODE = or greater than .500 - only these teams were present - -

Pirates 1909
Giants 1922
Orioles 1922
A's 1928
Twins 1930
Cardinals 1943
Cubs 1945
Orioles 1969
Redsox 2002

and, their RSAA/RCAA ratios where just about 1.

Now, I need to look at those with a BODE of .500+ with other RSAA/RCAA ratios and those with negative RSAA or RCAA............

[Wolf Hopper]

Here's a FACT:

Since 1900, there have been 2052 team seasons of teams still current in the majors - - - -

of those 2052, a team has had a BODE of .5 or better 68 times.
In 94% of those 68 seasons, the team has been above average in creating and saving runs.

In fact, in the history of those 2052 seasons, no team has ever crafted a BODE of greater than .536 and not been above average in BOTH creating and saving runs.

Based on this, is it safe to say that BODE's use is:

A BODE of .540 or better indiciates, almost every time, that a team is balanced in it's domination of the league - both at the plate and in the field - in the sense that both efforts are above league average?

[gyb13]

is that a question or a statement?

[Wolf Hopper]

I think it's a statement. Will look at it some more.

[Wolf Hopper]

I've played with the results some more - -

I'm not even sure now that the formula should be called BODE.

I'm thinking now it should be called "Demonstrated Ability Both Sides" (or DABS) - meaning ability to efficiently (i.e. above average) use outs on both sides of the ball.

You run the calc for a team and determine their DABS.

If DABS is .420 or greater, there's a 95% probability that the team in question mastered BOTH efficient use of outs on offense and defense.

The higher you go beyond .420, the probability gradually increases. You get into the above .540 range and it's pretty much a certainty that the team mastered BOTH efficient use of outs on offense and defense.

There's just one catch.............

[Wolf Hopper]

...........and that is that one must believe that:

A good team is one that walks often - and a team that walks often can be even better provided they hit often too. And,..........

A bad team is one that doesn't hit - but, even a bad team that doesn't hit can still improve itself if they walked more often.

............in order to have faith in the formula.

[TGwynn19]

Steve,

I am not trying to pull the rug from under you, but are you simply saying that water is wet?

[Wolf Hopper]

Originally Posted by TGwynn19

I am not trying to pull the rug from under you, but are you simply saying that water is wet?

Hmmmmmm.........

Actually, the goal was to be able to you which body of water was more wet than others...........

For example - we know that the 1998 Yankees and the 1969 Mets were both champions (or, in your case, both water). What I hope that DABS can be used for - is a quick calcuation - to "gauge" the wetness of the water - - meaning, tell us quickly, without having to calculate team AND league RC and Opp RC, etc., that the Yankees were above average in their ability to efficiently use outs on both sides of the ball (whereas the Mets were not).

Now, in the case of these two teams - most astute fans know on the fly that the 69 Mets were all about pitching and not hitting.

But, what about the comparison of the 1909 Pirates and the 1973 A's? For that, you could use DABS to quickly tell you that the Pirates were better, in the sense they were above average in their ability to efficiently use outs on both sides of the ball.

BTW, it's still not a lock for me, I need to analyze teams like the 49 Bosox, 80 Yankees, 99 D'backs and 68 Tigers some more..........

[Wolf Hopper]

I've been playing with this for a while.........white flag time!

I'll postscript the SOTS soon - - upon further review, too much conflicting data to prove/disprove anything useful.