Averill v. Bernie Williams

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Averill v. Bernie Williams

Bernie Williams has just completed his thirteenth regular season, all with the Yankees; Earl Averill also played thirteen seasons (1929-1941), mainly for Cleveland. Both are respected centerfielders. Bernie picked up four Gold Glove awards; Earl might have gotten one, maybe two, had the award been given while he played. Both have better-than-average range with the nod going to Averill. Williams has the weaker arm, but makes less errors.

Both have about the same number of games and plate appearances. Earl’s offensive averages -- BA, OBA, SLG, OPS -- are slightly better across the board than Bernie’s; but Earl also played in a slightly richer run environment. Their OPS+ is about identical (133).

Bernie gets the slight edge on the basepaths, but very slight.

Their post-season experience is about as far apart as you can get: Williams, of course, has been a near-perennial post-season participant since 1995, with (now) 21 series under his belt, including six World Series; he’s amassed more than half-a-season’s worth of October stats. Averill, on the other hand, saw but one WS, and that very late in his career; he had three at bats and no hits.

Each has ten solid consecutive full-time seasons to his credit: Earl from age 27 to 36, Bernie from age 24 to 33. Each is a loose comp of the other; both share comps with Ellis Burke, Kirby Puckett and Minnie Minoso. Bernie’s HoF Monitor through 2002 was 126.5, Earl’s 128.0. Averill was inducted in 1975 by the Veterans Committee.

I’ve seen Earl included in, and excluded from, HoF lists here and about. Were Bernie to quit next week, would he also secure for himself a place in Limbo Land? Or does the Yankee mystique, and with it his post-season exposure, put him beyond the bubble? Compare and share.

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[LeGrandOrange]

I think he was in a couple years ago. Next year, he'll have become better than the Earl of Snohomish.

Bernabe needs 50 more hits to truly plant to put a foothold into Cooperstown though. My HOF standards are very loose, and I understand that even Yankee mystique isn't enough to push in some borderliners. Williams has enough class and respect to maybe help that, but I've believed that 2,000 hits really gives you a major boost in your hall status. Yankee mystique will expedite the induction process though, as I'm certain he'll not go to the VC like Averill.

[JamesI]

Were Bernie Williams to retire after this season, no he is not a hall of famer.

But he has the possibility, he's not that far off. Another few seasons of quality.

[sweaver]

Bernie is already better than Averill. And if the selections were made merely on quality, Bernie Williams belongs in the HOF.

[pwdennis]

If he retired today, Bernie Williams would be on the borderline for Cooperstown

[Craig S.]

Originally Posted by sweaver

Bernie is already better than Averill. And if the selections were made merely on quality, Bernie Williams belongs in the HOF.

That's my thinking, too. But since the voters like certain numbers, I think he needs a few more good years.

[KCBOOMER]

I haven't seen the numbers yet but I can't imagine the 2003 numbers help Bernie's much if at all. I think it would be fair to say that Bernie's 2003 (offense & defense combined) was terrible. He will be 35 next year so he could go either way: rebound for 2-3 more decent years or go right in the trash can. While his numbers approach Averill's now a decline will take Bernie away from Averill.

Both Player have about the same OPS+ but Averill leads in RCAA 391-354 through 2002. Not a compelling difference but a difference. If Bernie quits now Averill was the ever so slightly better offensive player.

Averill's closest comp is Chuck Klein (.920). Klein is an HoFer. Bernie's closest comp is Luis Gonzalez (.905) who isn't going to the HoF any time soon. Averill is ahead of Bernie on each of the Jamesian measures (Black Ink, Grey Ink, HoF Monitor, and HoF Standards). The differences are small with the exception of the Grey Ink test (145/59).

Averill also finished in the top ten of MVP ballots six times while Bernie only did four times.

For some reason Averill started his ML career 5 years later than Bernie.

If Bernie Williams played for the Astros there wouldn't be any talk of him being in the HoF. As an opinion I think his next few years will take Bernie away from HoF consideration.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

It's not a Yankee "mystique", it's a Yankee opportunity -- the opportunity to play on a perennial contender and to play in the postseason year-after-year.

Averill didn't have that opportunity and Bernie does -- and it's sheer luck that he plays for the Yanks and not the Tigers or Devil Rays. If he had, and he was lucky enough to MAYBE go 0-3 in postseason batting, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

[JamesI]

Originally Posted by KCBOOMER

If Bernie Williams played for the Astros there wouldn't be any talk of him being in the HoF. As an opinion I think his next few years will take Bernie away from HoF consideration.

I agree at least partly. Bernie could do well a few more years to earn membership.

Bernie Williams and a few others (Rizzuto, Mattingly) would not get the hall of fame discussion or votes they got had they not been New York players.

[Wolf Hopper]

ALL YEARS
CF, Most seasons with RCAA >= 40

1    Willie Mays              15   
2    Tris Speaker             14   
3    Ty Cobb                  13   
4    Mickey Mantle            12   
5    Joe DiMaggio             10   
6    Ken Griffey Jr.           7   
7    Billy Hamilton            6   
T8   Earl Averill              5   
T8   Duke Snider               5   
T8   Hack Wilson               5   
T11  Jim Edmonds               4   
T11  George Gore               4   
T11  Bernie Williams           4   
T11  Jimmy Wynn                4   
T11  Jake Stenzel              4   

One more big year should bring Bernie close to Earl.

[Wolf Hopper]

BTW - notice no Puckett on the above list, FWIW.

[KCBOOMER]

Originally Posted by JamesI

Bernie Williams and a few others (Rizzuto, Mattingly) would not get the hall of fame discussion or votes they got had they not been New York players.

I don't think there is a New York bias toward putting or keeping players out of the HoF. I do think that if you get constant good publicity as a player it helps.

[JamesI]

Originally Posted by KCBOOMER

I don't think there is a New York bias toward putting or keeping players out of the HoF. I do think that if you get constant good publicity as a player it helps.

Its not an official bias, but there is an advantage to a player that gets to perform under that level of media attention (if they perform well) and the team reaches and succeeds in many postseasons. That was my point.

[sweaver]

If Bernie Williams had been a member of the Astros with Bagwell, Biggio and co., they would have won a couple World Series in the last decade or so, and the point would be moot.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Originally Posted by sweaver

If Bernie Williams had been a member of the Astros with Bagwell, Biggio and co., they would have won a couple World Series in the last decade or so, and the point would be moot.

You think?

I'll tell you what -- you put Jose Cruz in the HoF, THEN we'll talk about Bernie.