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09-19-2003, 04:10 AM
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CY, Clemens and Sutton?
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CY, Clemens and Sutton? Subtitled Joe Neikro, Old Hoss and Newhouser? We know a walk requires four pitches, a strikeout three. How many pitches does it take to give up a hit? One minimum, right? Count run-ups and foul balls have been a bane to pitchers since the beginning. But a complete record of that is not documented. documented Pitch Count (dPC): Bases on Balls = 4 pitches; Hits = 1 pitch; striKeouts = 3 pitches. I went through a sampling of famous and interesting pitchers to figure out their “documented Pitch Count” -- that is, the number of pitches they threw in their career based solely on counting stats. It’s led to an interesting list and unforeseen comps. Bases on Balls = 4 pitches; Hits = 1 pitch; striKeouts = 3 pitches. The top five -- Code:
Have we come out of some wild-armed iron-man era? Check out the next five, #6-10. Code:
The above five show some perennials, Johnson and CYoung -- along with Clemens and Seaver ... and Sutton? By this stat he’s more a comp to Walter than anyone else. The next #11-20 will suprise you in their era diversity. Code:
From here forward I’m missing guys, so there’re others to slip into the ranks (probably above too). This next gang of 15K-plus dPC pitchers is eclectic. Code:
Christy Mathewson at the bottom of THIS tier? What does that say about the Dead ball, or old-time, era? Notice half of ‘em are 300-game winners and all those pre-1950. What does that say about the mastery required to do what they did then? And what does that say about the other guys who also threw what they could for as long as they could? The next twenty or so... Code:
Notice how the first modern reliever Hoyt Wilhelm comps with 19th century “Iron Man” Joe McGinnity. Each threw about 9,700 documentable pitches in his career, but in different eras, performing in different roles. Notice how active guys (*) Pedro Martinez and David Wells are at about the same number of pitches but at a wide age gap; or how closely Jim Perry comps with Kid Nichols. Or do they comp? Yes. They comp in the number of documented pitches thrown. But the numbers making up the total -- W, H, K -- vary a lot by style. Only 29 d-pitches separates an iron man from the first modern reliever (cf. McGinnity and Wilhelm). Twenty-nine documented pitches? That’s like, what? -- three or four innings? Balance FYI -- Code:
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09-19-2003, 08:32 AM
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#2 |
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What does the leader board in dPC/G look like?
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09-19-2003, 11:50 AM
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#3 |
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IIt seems that in limiting your dPC to only pitches that can be perfectly documented you are missing a portion of the story that should be included. I think one can argue that it also takes one pitch to get a non-strikeout out. This not as perfect as the other counters because of caught stealing, multiple out plays, pick offs, outfield assists, etc., but it is meaningful.
To pick an exaggerated cause Cy Young pitched 7,356 innings. By your dPC you show that he did this on less than three pitches per inning. A true feat if indeed true. Well if you multiplied his innings by 3 you get 22,068 pitches which is more pitches that you credit him with. Adding his Walks plu K's x 2 we get a total of 32,542. Anyway this isn't a statistic but an arithmetic manipulation. You are attempting to create a qualitative statement when one doesn't exist. It somehow tries to imply that a guy who racks up a certain number of innings with lots of K's and W's is as good a pitcher as some with many more innings but less K's and W's. If you simply are trying to make across era's comparison of pitch counts then you must remove the bias against pitchers who toiled in era's of low walks and strike outs.
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09-19-2003, 02:32 PM
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Quote:
Don’t know yet. Haven’t gotten that far. Comparing CY to Spahn is what got me going. Code:
The dPC/G product seems it may give a clue to efficiency, but that’s untested. Quote:
I agree. Is there such a number attributable to pitchers? Or one that may be calculated as a proxy for non-strikeout outs? Quote:
Less than three DOCUMENTED pitches per inning. Quote:
Good catch! I noticed that right off, too. I’m thinking dPC implies something about efficiency and style, but that’s not tested. Quote:
Agreed. But two is an arbitrary multiplier. What number might be tried that is not arbitrary? Quote:
No. There’s nothing to infer from the list other than documentable Pitch Count. It was well established on the pitch count thread that the difference between high and low PC pitchers is largely a matter of STYLE. Documentable Pitch Count implies only the sheer number of times a guy took it to the plate, not his efficiency. I think the top five on this list -- Ryan, Carlton, PNeikro, Blyleven and GPerry -- all high-walk, high-K guys -- testify to the list NOT being sorted according to any measure of “bestness.” But while so many of Ryan’s pitches were “bad” pitches, it’s still hard not to marvel at the sheer number he threw, at least here implied. With further study it may be shown numerically that if CY was a surgeon, Ryan was a slasher. That I think is what dPC begins to stalk, some optimal blend of style and efficiency. Quote:
I agree. A pitcher’s d-walks, d-hits and d-strikeouts as a percentage of his dPC varies widely from guy to guy. If there is some stat or proxy that accommodates a view of non-strikeout outs, as you wisely suggest, that would help a lot. Otherwise, I’d prefer to stick with what can be known and measured. Working. . Last edited by Batman : 09-19-2003 at 02:35 PM. |
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09-21-2003, 12:16 AM
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#5 |
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From among the guys listed above I focused on those with about 10,000 or more documented Pitches (dP). I sorted their totals by percentage of their total dP -- by balls, hits and strikes. Three lists, three styles. Following are the top 10 in each list. Code:
Looking at the names with their eras in mind, does it look as if the style of pitching has changed over the years? -- especially since the time of the advent of the reliever over the last fifty years? Notice also that only Pedro is on all three Top 10 lists. Is it possible that in Martinez we’re seeing some highly refined version of that evolving animal we call a pitcher? I think it’s been shown that a high number of innings pitched implies some measure of major league competence. In this thread I believe we’re seeing that not all innings pitched over time require the same number of pitches, and that the variance is largely a matter of style. What I’m exploring now is how to measure those differences in style: 1) With an eye toward style’s transcendence cross-era; 2) looking out for what might indicate a long-term change in styles, and how it might clue in to the recent (past 50 years) rise in the role of the relief pitcher, in order to: 3) maybe catch a tip on how to see a reliever in respect to all pitchers. In other words, I’d like to be able to see in plain sight -- numerically -- why Gagne just may be the best pitcher in the National League today. . . . Here are some interesting style comps. They’re based on similarities in guys’ percentages of d-balls, d-hits and d-strikes. (When trying to figure the style of a guy, I look at his best under/over in respect to 33.33, 33.33, 33.33 for ball%, hit%, strike%.) The following are sorted roughly by ball%, with comp matches overriding. Some of these d-pitch comps will surprise you. I tried to stay within a point or two or so across the board. Code:
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09-21-2003, 08:38 AM
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#6 |
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Interesting that Ryan did not make the K-artists list but was 2nd in Unhittables.
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Steve, Forum Administrator POSTING TIP FOR THE DAY: When composing a post, think about what you would say if the intended recipient was an individual who was actually sitting just two feet in front of you, in person, rather than just some far away and anonymous audience who only can identify you as text on a PC screen - - and then write your post in that manner. It makes for remarkable and sincere discourse. |
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09-21-2003, 06:51 PM
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#7 |
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Yeah, huh? It seems Nolan just may be the greatest inefficient pitcher of all time. . |
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