Save percentage, and stuff

Firpo Marberry · 09-05-2003, 02:12 PM

Maybe all these numbers are so close a statistics expert would dismiss this. Or, perhaps the save statistic has finally been unmasked, and Don Knotts was wearing it all along.

Eddie-wardo Guardado has the highest save percentage among reg'lar closers in the AL at 91.2. That's ahead of Troy Percival's Pet Pig Named Porky at 90.6 and Keith Foulke Music at 88.4 and Mariano Moon Rivera at 84.4.

Yet batters are hitting .207 vs. Guardado, .200 vs. Percival and .181 vs. Foulke.

Guardado also has a 3.11 ERA. Foulke is at 2.14.

Foulke does have more saves 38-31. Obviously, with only three blow saves, Eddie-wardo hasn't had the save ops that Foulke has.

Why is Guardado's save percentage better? Does save percentage mean a damn thing? With an ERA a full run higher and people batting 25 points higher against him, should Guardado's save numbers be worse?

OK, batting .181 or .207, neither is much to brag about for hitters. But 25 points is a baserunner here and there.

Guardado does allow more runners per inning than Keith, but both Eddie and Foulke are each under a runner an inning.

Foulke also blew two saves that he converted into wins, for whatever that's worth.

Does Guardado have a better fielding team behind him when he's in there? Is that the difference? Are all these stats too nit to pick?

KCBOOMER · 09-05-2003, 02:53 PM

Defending three run leads results in fewer blown saves than defending one run leads. I think save percentage means something, but I wouldn't hyperventilate over it. It could well be an indicator that would explain why a team has lost the number of games it has.

SmedIndy · 09-05-2003, 03:09 PM

I think save percentage would be best in context if you add holds into the mix - to give the middle men a chance.

But to me - the ARP ratings along with inherited runners scored are the best guage. Save percentage means little on its own.

Firpo Marberry · 09-05-2003, 05:21 PM

I'd be inclined to look at SO/IP. If a pitcher has a high save percentage and a high SO/IP, I have to say, "Well, he's doing a lot of this himself."

If he's not whiffing them, then he's relying on his teammates. And if they kick it around, his save percentage will probably suffer.

Make sense?

sweaver · 09-05-2003, 06:38 PM

That's important, but it's only part of the picture. As you say, Guardado has a strong defense behind him. But that should go toward holding down his Batting Average Against, by turning hits into outs.

09-05-2003, 02:12 PM	#1
Firpo Marberry All-NetShrine Team Member Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Earth Posts: 327	Save percentage, and stuff Maybe all these numbers are so close a statistics expert would dismiss this. Or, perhaps the save statistic has finally been unmasked, and Don Knotts was wearing it all along. Eddie-wardo Guardado has the highest save percentage among reg'lar closers in the AL at 91.2. That's ahead of Troy Percival's Pet Pig Named Porky at 90.6 and Keith Foulke Music at 88.4 and Mariano Moon Rivera at 84.4. Yet batters are hitting .207 vs. Guardado, .200 vs. Percival and .181 vs. Foulke. Guardado also has a 3.11 ERA. Foulke is at 2.14. Foulke does have more saves 38-31. Obviously, with only three blow saves, Eddie-wardo hasn't had the save ops that Foulke has. Why is Guardado's save percentage better? Does save percentage mean a damn thing? With an ERA a full run higher and people batting 25 points higher against him, should Guardado's save numbers be worse? OK, batting .181 or .207, neither is much to brag about for hitters. But 25 points is a baserunner here and there. Guardado does allow more runners per inning than Keith, but both Eddie and Foulke are each under a runner an inning. Foulke also blew two saves that he converted into wins, for whatever that's worth. Does Guardado have a better fielding team behind him when he's in there? Is that the difference? Are all these stats too nit to pick? __________________ "They're all nobodies until you have to pitch to them."

09-05-2003, 02:53 PM	#2
KCBOOMER NetShrine All-Century Team Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Home of the T-Bones Posts: 11,116	Defending three run leads results in fewer blown saves than defending one run leads. I think save percentage means something, but I wouldn't hyperventilate over it. It could well be an indicator that would explain why a team has lost the number of games it has. __________________ KCBOOMER *Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball*

09-05-2003, 05:21 PM	#4
Firpo Marberry All-NetShrine Team Member Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Earth Posts: 327	I'd be inclined to look at SO/IP. If a pitcher has a high save percentage and a high SO/IP, I have to say, "Well, he's doing a lot of this himself." If he's not whiffing them, then he's relying on his teammates. And if they kick it around, his save percentage will probably suffer. Make sense? __________________ "They're all nobodies until you have to pitch to them."

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09-05-2003, 03:09 PM	#3
SmedIndy NetShrine's Historian Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Zionsville, IN Posts: 10,569	I think save percentage would be best in context if you add holds into the mix - to give the middle men a chance. But to me - the ARP ratings along with inherited runners scored are the best guage. Save percentage means little on its own.

09-05-2003, 06:38 PM	#5
sweaver Netshrine Cleanup Hitter Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: The Mountain State Posts: 8,883	That's important, but it's only part of the picture. As you say, Guardado has a strong defense behind him. But that should go toward holding down his Batting Average Against, by turning hits into outs.

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