Could Mays Have Done 500-500?

[Wolf Hopper]

Could Willie Mays have been a member of the 500-500 club like Barry Bonds?

Here's one side: The line you hear most often from players like Mays and Mantle on the SB were - "If I would have know that steals were that important, I would have run more often."

Well, if Mays (or any of those in support of Mays on this issue) wants to make this claim, I would counter with - - - "But, Willie, you did run often! How else does one explain that you had 109 steals in the three year period from 1956-1958?"

Back then, that was a lot of darn steals!

NATIONAL LEAGUE
1956-1958

STOLEN BASES                    SB     
1    Willie Mays                 109   
2    Jim Gilliam                  65   
3    Richie Ashburn               53   
4    Don Blasingame               49   
5    Johnny Temple                48   
6    Chico Fernandez              32   
7    Ken Boyer                    31   
T8   Dee Fondy                    28   
T8   Frank Robinson               28   
T10  Bill Bruton                  23   
T10  Bob Skinner                  23   

Check the stats - no one came near to running as much as Mays did at that time.

Here is another side: Now, could Mays have made 500 SB if he "ran more"? Well, he would have needed to steal 8-12 bags more a year just about every full time season he had to make 500 SBs. Willie was a great baserunner - shoot, he stole 23 of 26 at age 40! - so, maybe, yes, if he ran more often, I think he could have gotten these extra swipes. Coming into this season, Bonds had .26 steal attempts per game. Mays had .15. The difference is .11 - - - applying that to Mays games means 329 more attempts, or 252 more steals - - which would give Mays 590 steals.

OK, there's something there to both side of the debate.
What do you think and why?

[rcartman28]

Well, sure, he COULD have, but it wasn't important in his time to steal 30 or 40 bases a season, not that it is today, either. Come to think of it, I suppose Aaron, had he felt the need to pad his stats, probably could have pulled it off, too.

Had Barry played in the 50s and 60s, would he have ended up with more than 338 (Mays' total) ??

[SmedIndy]

Sure, if Mays played in the 70s and 80s instead of the 50s he could have gotten to 500 steals, but would he have gotten 500HRs?

[Wolf Hopper]

Historically, guys who stole a lot, and then developed great power, stopped running as much later. And, as guys with more than "just speed" get near 30, they start to run less. So, for Mays to get 500, he would have needed to run more when he was younger, under that model - but, he already ran a lot when he was younger. This makes me think that maybe he would not have gotten 500 under today's game.

[SmedIndy]

Think Cesar Cedeno, Wolfie. Cedeno had six straight years of 50+ steals. That's running a lot in the 70's. Mays ran a lot for his time, but 30+ steals wasn't "running a lot" for a top-notch stealer in the 70's.

[Wolf Hopper]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
Think Cesar Cedeno, Wolfie. Cedeno had six straight years of 50+ steals. That's running a lot in the 70's. Mays ran a lot for his time, but 30+ steals wasn't "running a lot" for a top-notch stealer in the 70's.

Smed - May's career as a FT was over in 1971. His last year was 1973. Willie Mays did not play in the 1970's.

He did run "a lot" in the 1950's and 1960's - more in the 1950's, when he was young, to my point before.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
CAREER
1950-1959

STOLEN BASES                    SB     
1    Willie Mays                 179   
2    Richie Ashburn              158   
3    Jim Gilliam                 132   
4    Pee Wee Reese               124   
5    Bill Bruton                 121   
6    Jackie Robinson             109   
7    Johnny Temple               105   
8    Sam Jethroe                  98   
9    Dee Fondy                    84   
10   Duke Snider                  77   

NATIONAL LEAGUE
CAREER
1960-1969

STOLEN BASES                    SB     
1    Maury Wills                 535   
2    Lou Brock                   387   
3    Willie Davis                240   
4    Hank Aaron                  204   
5    Vada Pinson                 202   
6    Tony Taylor                 157   
7    Willie Mays                 126   
8    Tommy Harper                124   
9    Julian Javier               123   
T10  Jimmy Wynn                  115   
T10  Frank Robinson              115  

[pathogan]

...he would have/could have but how do we aever know?tell you what, if they enclose the stick in 62 instead of late 70's he hits alot more HR at home

[SmedIndy]

Originally posted by Wolf Hopper
Smed - May's career as a FT was over in 1971. His last year was 1973. Willie Mays did not play in the 1970's.

He did run "a lot" in the 1950's and 1960's - more in the 1950's, when he was young, to my point before.

You're missing MY point - if he played in a different era he would have had the steals and not the homers. That's what I was trying to say - basically it's era dependent. You didn't need to steal then - you had the one-base-at-a-time offensive philosophy.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
You're missing MY point - if he played in a different era he would have had the steals and not the homers. That's what I was trying to say - basically it's era dependent. You didn't need to steal then - you had the one-base-at-a-time offensive philosophy.

That's a good point. With a talent like Mays, you could almost project what he would have done in ANY era.

In the 1880's, Mays would have been as great as Billy Hamilton or Cap Anson, with similar stats.

If he played from 1900-1920, Mays would have equalled Cobb or Wagner in many stats.

And so on. If his career started in the late-1980s, he would have Bonds-like stats, since that's what the media focuses on.

Just think what Mantle could have done if his career started in the '70s and he never ripped up his knee in Cleveland.

[Wolf Hopper]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
You're missing MY point - if he played in a different era he would have had the steals and not the homers. That's what I was trying to say - basically it's era dependent. You didn't need to steal then - you had the one-base-at-a-time offensive philosophy.

If that were true, then why did Mays average like 20 SB a year in the 1950's and like 15 SB a year in the '60's (when SB were up)? Why steal at all if it was truely one base at a time?

[Gosfgiants]

One of the reasons that Mays stole less in the 60's is that he had Willie McCovey hitting behind him. He would even stop at first on a well hit ball so the opposition would not walk McCovey.

[SmedIndy]

Originally posted by Wolf Hopper
If that were true, then why did Mays average like 20 SB a year in the 1950's and like 15 SB a year in the '60's (when SB were up)? Why steal at all if it was truely one base at a time?

They stole bases in the 50's sparingly - it wasn't a big weapon. It was in certain circumstances. He had the green light more than most people. Also, where he batted in the order, they didn't steal much. Would you steal in front of McCovey or Cepeda?

Put the early 50's Willie Mays in the Astrodome (or really on any turf team in the 70s), or on the Oakland A's of the 70's, and he steals 60 to 70 bases.

[Firpo Marberry]

Originally posted by Wolf Hopper
Historically, guys who stole a lot, and then developed great power, stopped running as much later.

I long believed that, which is always a warning to me that I better look up something.

Sampling people who were among league leaders in SB, you find that as power increased for people like Minoso, Cepeda (yup, he actually stole some early in his career), Pinson, Kaline, F. Robby, Jimmy Wynn, Puckett, Andre Dawson, and Winfield, they indeed stole fewer bases.

But Bobby Bonds had 45 SB in '69, always stole frequently, and in '78 he had 43. He sustained the SB. So did Barry, basically hitting notable totals from '86 to '96, with some ebb. Molitor stole 30 in '78, improved his SA later in his career, but still stole 31 in '92. Baylor kept it up from '72 to '79, hitting a abnormally high peak midway in there for one season, then falling back. Morgan, Agee, Aaron all sustained SB and power, power being a relative term depending on era. Al Kaline's season HR totals are paltry today, as most of us know.

Aaron was attemping and stealing totals in the 20s and low 30s from 1960 to 1968. He actually was an established power hitter before he started stealing bases, and had more in '68 than in all but one of his previous eight seasons. He defies the profile. (An aside: He was 9-for-19 in '69 and 9-for-9 in '70.) He stole more at 38 than he did in any of his first four seasons. Granted, the total was four. But Hank does not fit the pattern of power hitter abandoning the steal.

Mays would undoubtely have stolen more, as he doens't fit either of these patterns. He had 24 SB in '54 and 23 in '71. But he had 10 consecutive years in between where he not only didn't hit 20, he often was in single digits. I think it's clear he could have stolen more. 500? I think that's a stretch.

One person not mentioned is Mantle. I think he was an easy go for 500. Mantle really didn't have to run, playing with the Yankees. And there was the knee problem. But he stole his high midway in his career, not as a kid, and he had an unreal SB%. With healthy legs, he could have run at will for years. He had 158 SB and 38 CS. That's an .806 percentage. Better than Willie. Better than Aparicio. A single percentage point behind Henderson. Mick isn't in Raines' category, but he out-did the guys who were paid to steal bases, and he outdid Mays.

[pwdennis]

Except before the deadball era (Seasons before 1919), I think that Mays would have been 500+ homeruns in any era - could he have reached 500 steals ? Barring injury I would say yes

[Fuzzy Bear]

Bonds was a leadoff hitter for a portion of his career. For another portion of his career, he was a #5 hitter. The #5 hitter is critical in the discussion of steals, because the #5 hitter is very likely to lead off the SECOND inning. Mays was never so positioned in the lineup, once he established himself.

Could Mays have been a Soriano-like leadoff guy? Of course, and then some. Would that have been a better use of his talent? I seriously doubt it?

Things like the 500-500 plateau and the "Power/Speed" number imply that "Power" and "Speed" are somehow of equal offensive value. Power, however, is superior to speed, in that Herb Washington can't steal first base, whereas Rob Deer will hit an occasional tater and draw walks while hitting .179. Not the best analogy, I know, but do you understand the concept I'm driving at? In other words, which is more valuble (in the same number of ABs): 500 HRs/500 SBs or 600 HRs/300 SBs?