1900+ H by Age 33 w/an OBA .065 Above Lge Avg

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by hmrsf
Cut the crap! O is in now as is. He dominated over a period of time with the bat and a glove. He was a franchise and a marque player.

Can we stop this magic number crap! O is in.

I'm rooting for Olerud, but I can't agree with your assessment.

Olerud has never been DOMINANT; he has been steady, over time, and improved his stats, nominally, over time. He had one (1) monster season (1993), and another almost-but-not-quite-as-big season with the Mets (1998). He hit .302 and .300 the last two years. He's only hit over .300 four (4) times.

"Magic numbers" are REAL, REAL important for guys like Olerud because NO ONE thinks of him as a superstar. Frank Thomas, at least, is thought of as a superstar that faded. Big Hurt's career may have little or no more value than Olerud's in the end, but he is perceived as a guy who is, or (at least) was, a superstar.

For Olerud to get attention, he REALLY needs 3,000 hits to be a likely HOFer. I am surprised, but he really is kind of a long shot to do this. Failing this, he MUST keep his BA over .300. If he doesn't, he'll be in the Steve Garvey to Keith Hernandez class. It would be hard to justify Olerud's candidacy if he ends up with less than 3,000 hits and a .296 BA when such numbers weren't good enough for Garvey and Hernandez, both of whom won MVP awards, one of whom (Hernandez) was clearly superior on defense. Both of those guys, by the way, probably rate over Olerud in contributing to pennant winners. Garvey was, arguably the best player on 4 pennant winners (1 WC) and a past-prime regular on a 5th. Hernandez was an All-Star caliber regular on 2 World Champions. Olerud was the best player on the Jays in 1993, but nowhere near that level in 1992.

Olerud needs the kind of argument one could use in a letter to the SPORTING NEWS or BASEBALL DIGEST in order to boost his chances for the hall. OBP is not likely to do it. He'll need to either get his 3,000 hits (best bet) or keep his BA over .300 (might work for O, hasn't worked for Mattingly, yet).

I know that Ken Griffey Jr. had 1,900 hits before age 33, but hasn't maintained an OBP that high. I believe Robbie Alomar also meets that description.

Did you pick the +.065 at random or were you just trying to make a list that included the minimum req's for Olerud?

What would the list look like with no OBP requirement? If it were just players with 1,900 hits by the age of 33? How many more guys would make the list?