4-man rotation

[poorme]

Originally posted by cubfan33
Back to topic, I got some info that the Reds intend to use a four man rotation.

while i'll believe it when i see it, i find this mildly exciting.

[KCBOOMER]

Originally posted by nyy26wc
As I pointed out there, the idea that there ever was, at any point in baseball history, more than only a few token pitchers pitching every fourth day is a myth.

I know memories from our youth can be tricky and the proof is more important than "I remember when", but I am convinced that teams used to follow four day (not man) rotations. To test this I took a quick look at the Royals in the rise to the top in the mid to late 1970's.

In 1977 the top three starters had 109 starts (average 36.33) and a fourth guy had 27. That only left 26 starts for all the other guys. This is clearly a four day rotation.

In 1978 the top three starters had 108 starts (average 36) and the rest of the guys had 26. Two guys had 78 starts (average 39) You can't do that without working off a four day rotation. They had two other guys starting 56 games which is about every fifth day and a committee picking up the other 28 games.

In 1979 the top four starters all had 31-35 starts with the other guys getting 31 starts. This is where we finally see a true five day rotation (four main guys and a committee for the fifth day).

Now the Royals are the most pitching rich club in history I imagine it won't be hard to find numerous other examples of teams where two or three guys pitched every fourth day and the rest of the staff was used to get the rest.

[SmedIndy]

Actually, in the 50's and before, it was more random. It actually became more of a rotation in the 60's and 70's.

[KCBOOMER]

Originally posted by KCBOOMER
Now the Royals are the most pitching rich club in history .

I meant to say "aren't".

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by cubfan33
GOTTA disagree with Max Power here. Pitchers are ready for what I'm calling the Modified Four Man.

Rany Jazayerli did an amazing series of articles explaining this in depth and is worth looking up on BP.

An "M4M" rotation would have four starters, all expected to go five or six innings on a strict limit to avoid fatigue. There would be a deep bullpen that would allow proper rest for them. At least one person in the pen would be a swingman/long reliever that could come in if someone got rocked or injured to save the pen or to make a spot start if there's a string of problems.

While the pitchers would make more starts, their innings would not increase and if monitored properly, should not see fatigue break them down.

Boston COULD be first, but I haven't heard them committ to it. They have the perfect set for it with Pedro, Lowe, Fossum and ... hmmm Burkett? Use Wakefield as the swing/long and they've definitely got the deep, usable pen.

Cincy had made noises about going to it last year, but nothing since. Same with Toronto.

A good idea whose time has come!

I know that the twins for example last year were devastated by injuries.

They implemented a lot of the swingman routine with guys like Tony Fiore. they would og 5 or 6 then jackson, hawkins etc. would eat some innings.

It required a strong pen but if the pen is full of young starters like Johan Santana and Rincon then a team could probably use the four starter strategy with heavy pen dependance.

[beeper1]

Perhaps the use of a four-man rotation is heavily dependent on the strike zone and park effect. Just thinking about the olden days and the difference in the game then versus now had me thinking (albeit only a few minutes ago). With the tight zone, a team would definitely need a thick bullpen. What the team needs is efficient pitchers (Tommy-John style) that can get into the seventh or eigth on a consistent basis without wasting their arm for the night or next start.

Detroit could have used it last year, if it had reasonable pitching.

Dodgers could use it with their staff, get an extra arm (and a bruised ego) in the bullpen. Dump that 11th pitcher for a versatile PH. Maybe the Dodgers have the best chance at it.

[cubfan33]

I think a weaker team could benefit - use your weak starter for five - max two times through the rotation. Then you come with a reliever for two, maybe three. Then maybe two. Then Maybe one.

You'd need a pitching breakdown of:

4 "starters" who could go five.
2 "longs" that can go three
3 "shorts" who can go two
1 "swing" who can mop up or fill in.

Most teams could find this more easily and cheaply than they could five starters they rely on for six or seven.

[clemente21]

I always think of the Diamondbacks as a team that could use a variation of this. You would pitch Johnson and Schilling 38 starts at an average of 6 IP/start = 228 IP, with an hard cap pitch count. On the other two games/cycle, you'd have two pairs of two pitchers (both one lefty and one righty to mess up platooning) to get you through 7, with nobody ever going more than 5. That's six pitchers.

At that point, it depends on the lead/deficit:
4+ gets your mop-up man
2-3 gets your low-leverage youngster being broken in to eventually be a "starter"
0-1 gets your two high-leverage relievers and a situational lefty

But, this isn't going to be accepted because of the way that Wins are assigned. The swing starter that routinely goes 4 1/3 and gives up only 1-2 runs/start is never going to get a win. That just will not go over well.

[cubfan33]

Clemente, you describe a variant of what I called the Fuson Tandem that was used in Oakland for a year and now in the low minors with Texas. Grady gave credit to Bob Cluck, their MiL pitching instructor (now with Detroit, I think) so I'm calling it Cluck-Fuson Tandem.

Definitely could work, tho I'm not sure it's best for Arizona. You have two guys who've proven they can take serious workload - why limit them? Add in two good starters (Dessens and Patterson) and a very interesting possible experiment in Kim and this is one I want to see at five.

[GGC]

My favorite pet theory on how to set up a pitching staff:

4 guys on a four day rotation pitching @ 5 innings a game and 6 guys on a three day rotation pitching @ 2 innings a game. You could start one of the 2 inning guys or a 5 inning guy to get the right matchups. I'm partial to using a "reliever" to start the game. Imagine facing a guy cranking some serious heat in the first. Or trying to adjust from a Quisenberry-esque submariner to a "normal" pitcher in the third. Plus, how would the opposing manager set up his lineup?

I think that Tony LaRussa tried something like this about 10 years ago in Oakland. It failed, probably because all the good A pitchers were on the DL at the time.

As far as the four man rotation goes, I don't think that they used it in the early days because the schedule makes it difficult. Lee mentioned the fact that few starters averaged a start every fourth game over the history of baseball, but that doesn't mean that there weren't any other pitchers on a three day rest schedule. IIRC, non-frontline pitchers were switched back and forth from the rotation and the bullpen quite frequently throughout most of history. Plus, how many pitchers remain consistently healthy over the course of a year? Many probably miss a couple of starts here and there.