Game 2 In A 5 Game Playoff

[Max Power]

I always thought winning game 2 of a 5 game series was the most important win in the series.

Your thoughts?

[moose]

Originally posted by Max Power
I always thought winning game 2 of a 5 game series was the most important win in the series.

Your thoughts?

um, i'll go with game 3, actually. by the time you hit the non-home team's turf, you've set up all kinds of "must-win" or "really needs it" situations.

[Duque]

Yeah - have to be 3, because if you are tied, that really swings the momentum in your favor. The other team then has to win 2 straight.

And of course, if you're ahead 2-0, and you win game 3, it's over.

[Max Power]

Moose/Duque - think about Game 2 - - -

check the math. Not MUST WIN - - but, an important win...........

You win Game 1:

You win Game 2 and you're up 2-0 with three games to play - - who you're playing now has to win three in a row. One loss, and they are out.

You lose Game 1:

You win Game 2 and it's now a best 2 out of three series. Hope is restored.

You lose Game 2 and you now have to win three in a row. Next time you lose, just one more, and you're out.

[VNV Nation]

They're all important.

In a seven-game series, I have always felt that Game 3 and 6 were the turning points. In a best-case scenario, if you had two stud pitchers (like Schilling and Johnson), I would put one of them in a slot to pitch those games...of course, with few pitchers able to go on 3 days' rest, it is probably not a good idea anymore.

[JamesI]

Every game is important, but I'll take game 3 as the most. Its either a 2-0 must win or go home situation, or a win the series, or 1-1 take the lead.

I'd say game one would have to be the most vital, not only because it sets the tone for the series, but because it is the only game that does not depend on the games before it for importance. Game 5 and 4 may not even happen, so it's hard to count them most important, and games two and three will tend to be more crucial for the loser of game one, game two especially.

[SmedIndy]

In a five game set winning game 2 is probably the most important, though game 1 is right there too.

Like winning game 3 of a seven game set.

[gyb13]

I dunno if you can say one game is more important than the others because, except for game one, the importance of the ensuing games is dependent on the results of the previous games...

[poorme]

Originally posted by gyb13
I dunno if you can say one game is more important than the others because, except for game one, the importance of the ensuing games is dependent on the results of the previous games...

wouldn't that imply game one is the most important game?

they're all important. it's anaus to flipping a coin five times and saying which flip is the most important. unless you are one of those big "momentum" guys. i'm not.

[gyb13]

Originally posted by poorme
wouldn't that imply game one is the most important game?

No. Depending on the ensuing results, a later game may be more important. In fact, all elimination games are more important than game 1. Game 1 might be the least important, because your odds of winning the series are the highest, after a game 1 loss, then after any other situation in which you are behind (0-2 or 1-2).

they're all important. it's anaus to flipping a coin five times and saying which flip is the most important.

not exactly. the restriction would be, you can only keep flipping the coin if heads or tails hasn't come up 3x

[poorme]

gyb, we'll agree to disagree. if you do a statistical model, any game played is just as important as the others. for that reason games 4 and 5 could be considered less important because there is a good chance those games won't be played at all.

[KCBOOMER]

Originally posted by Max Power
I always thought winning game 2 of a 5 game series was the most important win in the series.

The "most important win" has to be the last game in the series whether it be the third, fourth, or fifth game.

[pathogan]

Originally posted by KCBOOMER
The "most important win" has to be the last game in the series whether it be the third, fourth, or fifth game.

The logic, Boom, the Logic

[gyb13]

Originally posted by poorme
gyb, we'll agree to disagree. if you do a statistical model, any game played is just as important as the others. for that reason games 4 and 5 could be considered less important because there is a good chance those games won't be played at all.

on making a tree diagram of the problem, I have to agree with you, in that the sum of probabilities of different outcomes is 50% for all games.

something interesting that gives some value to Steve's theory that game 2 may be the most important is the following:
If you are down 0-1 and you lose game 2, you have an 87.5% chance of being eliminated (assuming team A and team B have a 50-50 chance of winning).
However, teams still standing after game 3 (but down 1-2), 'only' have a 75% chance of being eliminated.