Something (?) To Talk About

[NetShrine]

Neyer's column today (below). Thought it had some good topics for talking points. See anything?

Thursday, October 4
News and notes on baseball
By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com

Figures and flippancies while wondering why some MVP voters seem to think that how often a candidate reaches base and hits the ball hard is little more important than how often his teammates do the same.

• It certainly was odd to see so many empty seats -- approximately 20,000 of them -- at Turner Field last night. The fans in Atlanta have become jaded, of course, and after nine straight postseason appearances you can understand why. In 1970, when the Orioles romped through the regular season for the second straight year, there were thousands of empty seats during the World Series. Still, one can't help but think that if Braves fans can't be bothered to show up for the climax of a great pennant race, perhaps it's time for some other team's fans to have a shot.
  
  
• The Orioles claim that they didn't acquire Tim Raines for the novelty, but rather because they "needed the help." That's ridiculous, of course, but I applaud the organization for its sense of history if not for its honesty. Tim Raines has been around for a long, long time. And while he probably won't get the place in the Hall of Fame he deserves, this possible conclusion of Raines' career -- missing a year due to illness, coming back to hit .308 in 47 games for his old team, then finishing the season in the same lineup with his son -- certainly ranks among the most dramatic ever.
  
• Tonight's Braves-Phillies game might be considered the single most important game of the season. If the Phillies win, they're a game down with three to play, and still have a reasonable chance of at least forcing a one-game playoff for the division title. But if the Phillies lose, they're done. No, they're not mathematically eliminated, but the chance of the Phillies sweeping the Reds and the Braves getting swept by the Marlins is something like one in 64.
  
• An amazing thing could have happened last night. Barry Bonds could have tied (or broken) not one, but two records. And of course, he did break one of them, drawing three walks to break Babe Ruth's mark, which the Babe set in 1923.
  
  Get all that? Home Runs = Walks. For many years, Ruth held both records. And now it's likely that Barry Bonds will hold both records, and that he'll have set them in the same season. Walks not bad. Walks good.

Unless your memory is very, very poor, you know that I advocate the selection of Barry Bonds as the National League's MVP. Well, the other National League awards are just as obvious, with both Randy Johnson and Albert Pujols deserving to be unanimous picks for Cy Young and Rookie of the Year, respectively.

Things aren't nearly so clear-cut in the American League, though. Yes, Ichiro has to be the Rookie of the Year. And yes, Roger Clemens is going to make a mockery of the Cy Young balloting.

But I don't think that he should. What's more, there are a bunch of solid MVP candidates in the AL, though in my mind only four who deserve serious consideration: Roberto Alomar, Bret Boone, Jason Giambi, and Alex Rodriguez.

Why not Jim Thome? Because if you're going to pick a power-hitting first baseman, Giambi is clearly having the better year.

Why not Ichiro? I might devote a column to this at some point, because the arguments for Ichiro are interesting and merit discussion. But the short answer is that his defense and his "intangibles" simply don't outweigh the huge edge in hitting stats for some of the other candidates.

In a nutshell, here are the arguments for those aforementioned four candidates...

Roberto Alomar is a Gold Glove second baseman with fantastic offensive numbers, and he's doing it for a division winner. Argument against? None.

Bret Boone is a second baseman who has not, believe it or not, been quite as effective with the bat (and legs) as Alomar. However, that's before adjusting for their home ballparks, and of course Safeco Field generally favors the pitchers while Jacobs Field does not. Argument against? Boone is not considered Alomar's equal with the glove.

Jason Giambi leads the American League in on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and he's even still got an outside shot at leading the AL in batting average, too. His home ballpark is tough on hitters (though Giambi himself has performed better at home than on the road), and his team is the second-best in the American League. Argument against? He hasn't played in seven of his team's games, and his defensive contributions don't match those of the other candidates.

Alex Rodriguez is the best player in the American League. He's played every game this season, he's considered a good (or better) defensive shortstop, he leads his league with 51 home runs, he's fast on the bases ... sheesh, is there really anybody who thinks that Alex should not be the highest-paid player in the game? Well, the argument against is that his team isn't good, and that he plays half his games in a very good park for hitters.

You might be able to guess my choice from the above, but it's not ready to withstand rigorous analysis because I haven't yet done the rigorous analysis myself. Feel free to send in your arguments for whoever you like, and in November I'll devote a column or two to the subject. In the meantime, I urge the MVP voters to at least consider the guy on the fourth-place team. And I leave you with a question that I've never seen posed: When considering an MVP candidate, should salary be a factor?

[BuzzBuzzard]

He might have covered this before, but why is he anti-Clemens for the Cy Young?

Also, what is his point on the Braves? Yes, sure there are plenty of other cities that would give their left eye (sorry Andre) to have just one post-season, but what is he getting at?

[nyy26wc]

Originally posted by BuzzBuzzard
He might have covered this before, but why is he anti-Clemens for the Cy Young?

He's covered that before. It has to do with the fact that, while Clemens is having a good year, the award should not go to anyone who's having a good year, but rather the 1 pitcher who is having the best season.

Clemens's W-L record is more of a result of his run support than Cy Young Award level pitching.

[b-ball-lunachik]

I'm wondering why he was so surprised that Turner Field had so many seats open....when the Yanks played them in the WS, Yankee fans were able to walk up and get pretty decent tickets...not sure why that is, especially during a pennant race...and especially since Atlanta has been on a good run now, for a long time...

is the area not populated enough? Atlanta's a pretty big city...do people live too far away from the park?

No way did the Orioles "need" the older Raines...but I couldn't be happier for father/son...may as well have a feel good story down there to end the season with...especially one that doesn't mention his greatness Cal...