Trade Hillenbrand? [merged threads]

soxfan121 · 10-05-2002, 06:21 PM

Earlier this week, BP published the following article: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ne...003daily.shtml

In another thread, there was a brief discussion of Hillenbrand's progress (a discussion which was off-topic there - hence the new venue.) That thread is here: http://www.netshrine.com/vbulletin2/...8992#post88992

Certainly Shea Hillenbrand improved this season at the plate. VNV and hmrsf make good statistical arguments in the above thread. However, I believe the question more to be - has he improved enough to be considered a long-term option? BP's take is very interesting; however, BP has had a negative opinion of Hillenbrand and his performance since early last season. The "walk war" between he and Soriano became a favorite topic of discussion last season. And in today's baseball culture, the WALK is almighty. This is the tail end of a major shift in baseball philosophy. Mickey Mantle was derided by some for walking so much - Barry Bonds has become the most dominant player in the game because of his ability to work the base-on-balls. Hillenbrand, more so than the much-higher regarded Soriano, is now bearing the brunt of this cultural shift, as he is criticized by BP, Boston media, and fans like me.

So three questions, two specific, one broad:
1. Has Hillenbrand improved enough to be considered a good 'long-term' investment by the Red Sox?
2. If not, do you trade him this offseason?
3. Have players like Hillenbrand been negatively (and possibly unfairly) affected by the 'walk revolution' - and what does that mean for those players?

VNV Nation · 10-05-2002, 06:30 PM

Trade him? You won't get much for him.

Long-term? Who thinks in the long-term with players at this level?

He costs nothing, so you just put him out there for 3-4 years and replace him once he's not any good anymore, just like you do with anyone else (Valentin, Scott Cooper, Troy O'Leary, etc.).

tortured angel · 10-05-2002, 06:34 PM

I don't think the Sox can afford to give up on him yet because he is still cheap and they can't really afford a more expensive option until they can dump some salary. And what options are available? With the lineup around him he doesn't have to carry the load so they can wait at least another year to see how he pans out. As far as long term, as long as he isn't killing them he is a decent option as long as he doesn't demand Chavez/Glaus type money.

On the issue of walks, while they are important, plenty of players have managed long productive careers without taking a lot of them. Nobody is on Nomar's case about it yet, are they?

JamesI · 10-05-2002, 06:48 PM

Hillenbrand can still get the job done, so unless he wants a fortune or they can get their hands on someone like Glaus or Chavez, the Sox should hold him. If they trade him, they won't get much unless they find a sucker GM.

hmrsf · 10-05-2002, 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by VNV Nation
Trade him? You won't get much for him.

Long-term? Who thinks in the long-term with players at this level?

He costs nothing, so you just put him out there for 3-4 years and replace him once he's not any good anymore, just like you do with anyone else (Valentin, Scott Cooper, Troy O'Leary, etc.).

DING! DING! DING! give the man a prize!

I do not mean to sound crass but Baseball Perspective is doing some verbal masterbation on this one. Shea Hillenbrand is statistically one of the most improved baseball players in the AL. The walk total is not up. Yes we can all agree. But everything else is. Hang him. The guy is bearly making the league min, if he can suck(BP defination is waaaaaaaay off) this much and we can pay him this little, LET'S KEEP HIM!!!!!!!

sweaver · 10-05-2002, 08:16 PM

The question in BP was not so much about Hillenbrand, as it was the question, "If a player gets off to a hot start, and can be reasonably expected to decline, should you trade him?" The answer the writer reached was, in Hillenbrand's case, no, because the Sox were in the race and had no decent alternative. Who would have played third, Offerman?

Now, if it was the Devil Rays, then trade him for whatever you can get.

Fatwater Fewl · 10-05-2002, 09:17 PM

1. Hire Billy Beane.

2. Watch Beane trade Hillenbrand and a player to be named later to Houston for Morgan Ensberg and Jason Lane.

3. Smile as Beane trades Ensberg, Lane, Ugueth Urbina, Rich Garces and Brian Daubach to Texas for Hank Blalock, Danny Kolb, and Francisco Cordero.

4. Shake your head in wonder as Beane sends Kolb to Houston as the PTBNL.

5. Hope against hope.

Fatwater Fewl · 10-05-2002, 09:24 PM

Seriously though, if the BoSox can get anything at all for Hillenbrand this winter -- even Cirillo -- they should do it. He has had the best season he'll ever have -- even if he ends up in Colorado, which is not completely out of the question; a creative 3 or 4 team deal involving him and Juan Pierre could happen...

VNV Nation · 10-06-2002, 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fatwater Fewl
Seriously though, if the BoSox can get anything at all for Hillenbrand this winter -- even Cirillo -- they should do it. He has had the best season he'll ever have -- even if he ends up in Colorado, which is not completely out of the question; a creative 3 or 4 team deal involving him and Juan Pierre could happen...

Who are you, Gabe Paul? Anytime you want to trade a $260,000 27-year-old, just because he played "over his head," for a washed-up 33-year-old making $6 million, you're gonna lose.

spitball · 10-06-2002, 12:53 AM

How long has Hillenbrand been in the show?
2 full seasons?
This talk of trade seems hasty. Boston is going to have a whole new coaching staff , including a new hitting coach.
Give the guy a chance.
By the way, the Angels are proving that walks are overrated. Plate coverage is the key. If a guy has a hacker's mentality, don't try and make him into something he's not . Work to his strengths.

pwdennis · 10-06-2002, 01:22 AM

I say you do nothing about Hillenbrand - none of the options available are likely to be very cost effective so why deal with a non-problem. The Red Sox have some real problems to deal with so why get distracted by something like this

hmrsf · 10-06-2002, 06:32 AM

You guys are all saying what I was trying to say. This is a non issue. He is cheap. He is a non problem. He give you enough and shows statistic improvement. Quite a bit improvemntment. Baseball perpsective is doing vebal masterbation.

Trade him for what? We have salary problems here. His hitting is not that bad. It is getting better. The pendulum has swung too far on the walk total. Shea is the best value at the postition. This conversation is best left for those with a bigger mind than mine.

Max Power · 10-06-2002, 08:17 AM

Code:

1973-2002
AGE <= 27
WALKS <= 100
AT BATS >= 1100
OPS >= .740
AGE <= 27

RCAA                           RCAA      BB       AB       OPS    
1    Al Oliver                    45       55     1271     .805   
2    Bake McBride                 41       99     1307     .773   
3    Dave Revering                36       92     1369     .785   
4    Leon Roberts                 31      100     1244     .773   
5    Larry Sheets                 29       81     1151     .846   
6    Shane Mack                   27       95     1112     .801   
7    Reggie Jefferson             25       84     1232     .820   
8    Joe Carter                   21       95     2035     .776   
T9   Billy Sample                 20       99     1134     .740   
T9   Alfonso Soriano              20       53     1328     .804   
T11  Lamar Johnson                12       87     1153     .768   
T11  Rico Brogna                  12      100     1383     .790   
13   Tony Pena                     9       92     1816     .759   
14   Terry Steinbach               8       96     1211     .741   
15   Chris Stynes                 -2       93     1165     .761   
16   Ray Knight                   -5       87     1337     .748   
17   Shea Hillenbrand            -16       38     1102     .743   
18   Pedro Munoz                 -19      100     1708     .760   
19   Greg Colbrunn               -24       78     1786     .748

There's a very good chance that Hillenbrand maybe just be the next Greg Colbrunn....................

Fatwater Fewl · 10-06-2002, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by VNV Nation
Who are you, Gabe Paul? Anytime you want to trade a $260,000 27-year-old, just because he played "over his head," for a washed-up 33-year-old making $6 million, you're gonna lose.

How'd you recognize me? I thought this rhinestoned gown was the perfect disguise.

Okay, okay, Cirillo is a very bad idea. Still, will Hillenbrand's price justify keeping him as his hitting falls to its true levels? Does it justify an outs magnet in your lineup?

Why not point out his salary as a selling point to possible trade partners... Or, novel idea, just offer to suck up that low salary for another team if it will get you a decent bat.

hmrsf · 10-06-2002, 10:39 AM

Can we all take a deep breath and say 93 wins.

10-05-2002, 06:21 PM	#1
soxfan121 Renounced Membership 7/9/03 Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Live Free Or Die, USA Posts: 1,335	The Shea Hillenbrand Quandary Earlier this week, BP published the following article: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ne...003daily.shtml In another thread, there was a brief discussion of Hillenbrand's progress (a discussion which was off-topic there - hence the new venue.) That thread is here: http://www.netshrine.com/vbulletin2/...8992#post88992 Certainly Shea Hillenbrand improved this season at the plate. VNV and hmrsf make good statistical arguments in the above thread. However, I believe the question more to be - has he improved enough to be considered a long-term option? BP's take is very interesting; however, BP has had a negative opinion of Hillenbrand and his performance since early last season. The "walk war" between he and Soriano became a favorite topic of discussion last season. And in today's baseball culture, the WALK is almighty. This is the tail end of a major shift in baseball philosophy. Mickey Mantle was derided by some for walking so much - Barry Bonds has become the most dominant player in the game because of his ability to work the base-on-balls. Hillenbrand, more so than the much-higher regarded Soriano, is now bearing the brunt of this cultural shift, as he is criticized by BP, Boston media, and fans like me. So three questions, two specific, one broad: 1. Has Hillenbrand improved enough to be considered a good 'long-term' investment by the Red Sox? 2. If not, do you trade him this offseason? 3. Have players like Hillenbrand been negatively (and possibly unfairly) affected by the 'walk revolution' - and what does that mean for those players?

10-05-2002, 09:17 PM	#7
Fatwater Fewl NetShrine MVP Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Charlottetown, PEI Posts: 261	The Hillenbrand Solution 1. Hire Billy Beane. 2. Watch Beane trade Hillenbrand and a player to be named later to Houston for Morgan Ensberg and Jason Lane. 3. Smile as Beane trades Ensberg, Lane, Ugueth Urbina, Rich Garces and Brian Daubach to Texas for Hank Blalock, Danny Kolb, and Francisco Cordero. 4. Shake your head in wonder as Beane sends Kolb to Houston as the PTBNL. 5. Hope against hope.

10-06-2002, 01:22 AM	#11
pwdennis NetShrine All-Century Team Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Winter Springs, FL Posts: 2,503	I say you do nothing about Hillenbrand - none of the options available are likely to be very cost effective so why deal with a non-problem. The Red Sox have some real problems to deal with so why get distracted by something like this __________________ "I would submit that if the world survives for a million years, perhaps its finest hour may be that in the last half of the 20th century, when the power to blow up the world rested in the hands of a few men in two very unsophisticated and suspicious countries, we didn't do it, and one American, Richard Nixon, moved the cold war away from permanent confrontation toward victory. How could any wrong that he did compare with that?" - John Sears

10-06-2002, 06:32 AM	#12
hmrsf forum mom Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: relocation Posts: 4,298	You guys are all saying what I was trying to say. This is a non issue. He is cheap. He is a non problem. He give you enough and shows statistic improvement. Quite a bit improvemntment. Baseball perpsective is doing vebal masterbation. Trade him for what? We have salary problems here. His hitting is not that bad. It is getting better. The pendulum has swung too far on the walk total. Shea is the best value at the postition. This conversation is best left for those with a bigger mind than mine. __________________ NDF who shares good karma! Get a coaster! My cup is not only 1/2 full it is brimming! We don't need no stinking Arods!

10-06-2002, 10:39 AM	#15
hmrsf forum mom Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: relocation Posts: 4,298	Can we all take a deep breath and say 93 wins. __________________ NDF who shares good karma! Get a coaster! My cup is not only 1/2 full it is brimming! We don't need no stinking Arods!

10-05-2002, 06:30 PM	#2
VNV Nation Membership Suspended 11/19/02 Join Date: May 2002 Location: VNV Nation Posts: 2,952	Trade him? You won't get much for him. Long-term? Who thinks in the long-term with players at this level? He costs nothing, so you just put him out there for 3-4 years and replace him once he's not any good anymore, just like you do with anyone else (Valentin, Scott Cooper, Troy O'Leary, etc.).

10-05-2002, 06:34 PM	#3
tortured angel Guest Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: middle east Posts: 573	I don't think the Sox can afford to give up on him yet because he is still cheap and they can't really afford a more expensive option until they can dump some salary. And what options are available? With the lineup around him he doesn't have to carry the load so they can wait at least another year to see how he pans out. As far as long term, as long as he isn't killing them he is a decent option as long as he doesn't demand Chavez/Glaus type money. On the issue of walks, while they are important, plenty of players have managed long productive careers without taking a lot of them. Nobody is on Nomar's case about it yet, are they?

10-05-2002, 06:48 PM	#4
JamesI Netshrine Vacuum Cleaner Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Potsdam, N.Y. Posts: 3,723	Hillenbrand can still get the job done, so unless he wants a fortune or they can get their hands on someone like Glaus or Chavez, the Sox should hold him. If they trade him, they won't get much unless they find a sucker GM.

10-05-2002, 08:16 PM	#6
sweaver Netshrine Cleanup Hitter Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: The Mountain State Posts: 8,883	The question in BP was not so much about Hillenbrand, as it was the question, "If a player gets off to a hot start, and can be reasonably expected to decline, should you trade him?" The answer the writer reached was, in Hillenbrand's case, no, because the Sox were in the race and had no decent alternative. Who would have played third, Offerman? Now, if it was the Devil Rays, then trade him for whatever you can get.

10-05-2002, 09:24 PM	#8
Fatwater Fewl NetShrine MVP Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Charlottetown, PEI Posts: 261	Seriously though, if the BoSox can get anything at all for Hillenbrand this winter -- even Cirillo -- they should do it. He has had the best season he'll ever have -- even if he ends up in Colorado, which is not completely out of the question; a creative 3 or 4 team deal involving him and Juan Pierre could happen...

10-06-2002, 12:53 AM	#10
spitball Guest Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Studio City, Ca. Posts: 1,751	How long has Hillenbrand been in the show? 2 full seasons? This talk of trade seems hasty. Boston is going to have a whole new coaching staff , including a new hitting coach. Give the guy a chance. By the way, the Angels are proving that walks are overrated. Plate coverage is the key. If a guy has a hacker's mentality, don't try and make him into something he's not . Work to his strengths.

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