Royals trading Beltran? [merged threads]

[Dr. Bob]

From ESPN.com, also in today's Kansas City Star:

Dec. 13 - The Royals are becoming resigned to the fact that they won't be able to afford to keep Beltran and are letting teams know he's available. Kansas City reportedly offered Beltran a three-year deal for $25 million to $30 million, but agent Scott Boras countered with propsals for an eight-year, $120 million to $160 million deal or a two-year, $20 million deal. Either way, it's out of the Royals' range. However, owner David Glass still hasn't given the OK to trade the third baseman.

First of all, the sad thing is that David Glass probably thinks Beltran IS a third baseman. Boras is demanding Bernie Williams money for Beltran, saying he has Bernie's early stats, only at two years younger. My question: Does he deserve real Bernie Williams money, or the Monopoly Bernie Williams money only Steinbrenner can pay?

[KCBOOMER]

As soon as Beltran signed with Boros you knew he was gone. Boros always goes for max dollars without regard to the team or the player.

Beltran is an enigmatic sort of player. One of those guys who just doesn't look like he is giving it his best effort at all times. On the other hand he is a five tool guy who can play a very decent centerfield. He is an excellent base runner and stealer. He has four full seasons under his belt and will only be 26 next year.

In addition to the occasional lapse of effort and concentration his OPS is only slightly above average (.810 to .773). This ranks 8th amongst CF's over the last four who have had at least 1500 AB's but is over a hundred points behind Williams and Edmonds. His OPS is ahead of Johnny Damon and Torii Hunter for that period.

His career RCAA is only 18 which is probably because of his mediocre OBA of .341. If you look at his OPS against all non-pitchers he ranks 83rd.

So it seems to me $8M per year is not unreasonable. Think of it as Darin Erstad type money as opposed to Delgado/Giambi/Ramirez type money.

[Craig S.]

Boras is all about getting the max he can for his players, regardless of anything else. My feeling is that finding takers won't be quite as easy as in the past. Not that Beltran won't find other bidders, but I think the financial expectations, especially getting into the 8-year deal, is a little extreme.

I think Boomer's estimate of $8m per is pretty good. The Royals' offer is fitting for a player of Beltran's level at this point of his career. Unfortunately, it probably won't be enough to convince him to stay.

And looking at Beltran's numbers, he needs to get on base way more than he does now to move to that next level. A .350 OBP doens't cut it.

[WiredTiger]

Dr. Bob.... Welcome. I think Beltran is a good but not great player. I don't think anybody but the top superstars are going to get 8 year deals. He probably is worth right around $8 Million like KCBoomer said. I wouldn't overpay to keep him.

[sweaver]

2 years, $20M----I'd do it, then if I couldn't sign him to an extension during 2004, look to trade him then. I wouldn't commit to eight years for that money---maybe for $100M. That's higher than you guys are saying, but he is a big talent.

[Dr. Bob]

I agree with the analysis of his worth. For what it's worth, Boras was not saying he's worth what Bernie makes because his current stats equal Bernie's current stats--he was saying that Bernie's first four years equal Beltran's first four years, and Beltran's two years younger after those first four years.

I just don't have any faith in the Royals' ability to select adequate return in a trade, and I'm getting really tired of watching a perpetual youth movement, meaning that we effectively are fielding a AAA team.

Maybe I'll get season tickets to the T-Bones...

[Dr. Bob]

How do you think 2 years, $20M would compare to two years of arbitration?

[sweaver]

Plus or minus 5%

[Skip]

Originally posted by sweaver
2 years, $20M----I'd do it, then if I couldn't sign him to an extension during 2004, look to trade him then. I wouldn't commit to eight years for that money---maybe for $100M. That's higher than you guys are saying, but he is a big talent.

I can't think of even a handful of players I'd give 8 years to ... and Beltran isn't one of them.

[KCBOOMER]

I'd go to arbitration before I would give him $20M for two years. As for ponying up a long term deal I would have to have some more evidence that his lapses of effort and concentration are things of the past.

[satchel]

I am shocked (shocked!) at the numbers being tossed around in this thread, for a guy who seems to still be all potential that he's yet to really live up to. That's not a criticism of anyone posting, rather, incredulousness that anyone from Boras to someone paid to be a major league club's GM would would even say "$120M" and "Beltran" in the same sentence.

[sweaver]

Are you willing to bet that Boras can't sell the Bernie Williams comparison to an arbitrator? If I'm Allard Baird, I won't take that bet. That's why I go for the 2 years, $20M.

[gyb13]

couldn't you just see Beltran in texas?

[Jim Rice]

I gotta hand it to Steve Boros, he sure can spin the facts. Unfortunately, he left out the one fact that is extremely salient here - BERNIE WILLIAMS IS OVERPAID. There is one, and only one, team in baseball that would pay Bernie Williams $12.5 million to play center field, and that's Georgie's Pinstripers. Well, if you're listening Mr. Boros, since Bernie is already playing CF for them, that essentially takes them out of the running for Beltran, doesn't it? And if the Yankees - who are in severe cost-cutting mode - can't get into the bidding (which I doubt they would anyway since Beltran's attitude doesn't really fit their image), that leaves a whole pack of teams that simply don't pay center fielders more than about $7.5 million per year. The next closest salary in the AL was Damon's $7.25 million. In the NL, Andruw Jones made $10 million, but it looks like the Braves are downsizing payroll too. Besides, Beltran is no Andruw Jones - even Boros doesn't try to make THAT comparison. Otherwise, the highest-paid NL center fielder was Edmonds at $7.33 million. What Boros is trying to argue is that Beltran should be paid as the best center fielder in baseball - a man who has never made an All-Star team, won a Gold Glove, or led the league in a single offensive category. A man who has displayed shoddy effort, has never had a season of consistently solid play from end to end, has zero clubhouse or community presence, argued publicly with his team over a rehab assignment, and has never played in a meaningful major league baseball game since all of his teams have been non-competitors after April 1st.

A five-year, $35 million deal would be a fair, even GENEROUS offer. Throw in a $5 million signing bonus and he can call it $8 million per year, on average. That locks him up until he's 31, a
prime age to cash in even more on his next deal if he performs the way Boros says he will.

For Boros to ask David Glass to commit more money to Beltran than he paid for the entire TEAM is one of the more ludicrous proposals you will hear, especially under the new labor agreement. I mean, this is Carlos Beltran we're talking about, right? I'd rather pay that kind of money to Carlos Santana - at least he SOUNDS like he's worth it.

[satchel]

Jim Rice, though I don't think Beltran is or will be as good as Bernie Williams, I'm just compelled to remind you that back in '98 the Red Sox offered Bernie Williams pretty much the same contract he got from the Yankees. So... the Yankees really aren't the "one, and only one, team" who'd pay him $12.5 million.

Incidentally, I took an oath yesterday in which I swore allegience to the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. I forgot to ask if that means I have to become a Red Sox fan ...