Sickels on Soriano

[satchel]

On Alfonso Soriano:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/misc/1460245.html

ESPN's John Sickels discusses a study that Bill James and Matthew Namee did (using our own Lee Sinins's Sabermetric Encyclopedia) comparing Soriano's fascinating 2002 season with seasons past. James and Namee conclude that no player has ever had such a productive season, while posting such a cruddy SO/BB ratio.

I throw out several questions for discussion. Is James & Namee's study asking the right question? How much did Soriano's >40 steals contribute to his production? And what do you foresee for Soriano in the future - improved plate discipline? Less power? More power? Less speed?

Let's talk Soriano. I'll post my own thoughts on him soon.

[moose]

good player. # of abs lets his great abilities to hit it hard shine

[JamesI]

I still say he's overrated. He has potential to be great, could be the best 2nd baseman in the AL for the next decade, but he needs to learn patience and work on his defense. If that occurs, he'll be dominant. But I expect his power will go down, and with his poor walking ability, he'll be seen as flawed real quick.

[sweaver]

Some questions I have, but can't answer because I haven't seen Soriano enough: does he strike out because he swings at pitches out of the zone, or because he swings hard at pitches and has some holes in his swing? Can he hit the high pitch, the low pitch, the outside pitch?

If he swings at pitches out of the zone, he won't get a strike thrown to him next year. And his performance will decrease. But if he strikes out mostly because he swings hard, he will continue to succeed, but maybe not do as well.

[satchel]

sweaver, he's a weird mixture. He often strikes out swinging and missing on pitches out of the zone, particularly breaking stuff away. But he also often shows a Vlad-like ability to hit the cover off of pitches nowhere near the strike zone.

Frankly, I don't understand why anyone threw him a strike at all last season. If you're right, and they adjust to him next season (why did they wait so long?) he's going to have to adjust back or face a serious drop in production.

This could be one of those things where managers and coaches don't want to tinker with his "natural aggressiveness" until the league's pitchers give them a reason to.

[KCBOOMER]

I was amazed at all the strikes this guy saw last year. He would have to prove to me that he won't swing at bad pitches before I ever started throwing him strikes. Anybody who hits only .300 and gets 209 hits is not looking at a lot of pitches.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally posted by JamesI
I still say he's overrated. He has potential to be great, could be the best 2nd baseman in the AL for the next decade, but he needs to learn patience and work on his defense. If that occurs, he'll be dominant. But I expect his power will go down, and with his poor walking ability, he'll be seen as flawed real quick.

JamesI has posted what has pretty much been my official position on Soriano. The article made me think of certain things, however, that bear saying.

1. Bill James has written in the past that truly great players tend to be unique. Similarity scores for most comparable players to a superstar are not as close as for, say, a good player who is, at best, a minor star. Before this year, A-Rod, Jeter, and Nomar's best comp was at 860 similarity score or below, whereas Tejada's best comp was at 930. The data is not in for the 2002 season at baseballreference.com, so Tejada's scores will be interesting. Soriano's best comp before the 2002 season was Robert Fick with a similarity score of 962. It will be cool to see who Soriano's
best comp is after 2002, and what the similarity score is. How unique will he score.

2. If this season truly represents Soriano's established level of ability, then he is a great player. He doesn't have to get better; he just has to maintain at this level. While I don't think he can do this without improving his plate discipline, he is SO unique that he may be able to maintain this for enough years to have a significant career (i. e. to be considered an All-Star, and, possibly, a future HOFer).

3. Plate discipline is one area of offense where an old dog can learn new tricks. Julio Franco is a prime example; he was a hacker (like Soriano) earlier in his career. He became a quite disciplined hitter, and remains one today; it's kept him in the majors.

4. Soriano's SEASON was not overrated; it was an MVP quality season, without question. His value as a player is in question because his plate discipline, and his uniqueness make people wonder how good he really is, and can he do it again.

[Husier]

Soriano showed some plate discipline as the 2001 season rolled along, then went back to old habits when he got off to a sizzling start in 2002 ... maybe a case of a not messing with a good thing?

[SmedIndy]

I think Soriano is someone we should wait 2-3 years on before we annoint him King of the world. He's got to make adjustments, or he'll be hitting .260 with 200 K's while he chases strikes everywhere.

[moose]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
He's got to make adjustments, or he'll be hitting .260 with 200 K's while he chases strikes everywhere.

did you say something liek that last year?

[SmedIndy]

Originally posted by moose
did you say something liek that last year?

Yes - butI still stand by those statements. He could become a much better Julio Franco - or become Juan Samuel II, Electric Boogaloo.

[moose]

Originally posted by SmedIndy
Yes - butI still stand by those statements. He could become a much better Julio Franco - or become Juan Samuel II, Electric Boogaloo.

at what point will he escape it if he continues to be good?

or put another way - how far does he have to slip from this banner year for you to think he still needs adjustments?

[Jim Rice]

Originally posted by moose
at what point will he escape it if he continues to be good?

or put another way - how far does he have to slip from this banner year for you to think he still needs adjustments?

Right now this guy is extremely similar to Juan Samuel.

WARP3 Scores

Age 22
Samuel: 0.1
Soriano: -0.6

Age 23
Samuel: 3.7
Soriano: 4.1

Age 24
Samuel: 7.0
Soriano: 7.8

From there Samuel went 5.2, 7.2, 2.8, 5.1, 3.8, 6.6, 0.5, 0.8, 3.1, 1.3, 0.7, 1.0, -0.3. In other words, he peaked at age 26. Soriano has to at least maintain this year's performance for the next three or four years before he will be free of the SamuelII label.

[satchel]

Jim Rice, what are those numbers?

[Jim Rice]

Originally posted by satchel
Jim Rice, what are those numbers?

Wins Above Replacement Player, or WARP, courtesy of The Baseball Prospectus. WARP3 includes leveling factors for era, ballparks and season length so the numbers can be compared historically.