John W. Henry and His Red Sox

[soxfan121]

Check out these comments from John W. Henry, principal owner of the Red Sox in this AM's Boston Globe:

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/22...red_out+.shtml

An undisputed wizard with statistics and number theories, Red Sox principal owner John W. Henry not only has built a financial fortune with his expertise, he has commandeered first place in his fantasy baseball league. Now, Henry has tapped his statistical skills to evaluate the performance of his $660 million baseball franchise. And he has reached a couple of interesting conclusions.

By reviewing the Pythagorean method that determines a team's record based on the number of runs they score and allow, Henry learned Thursday that the Sox should be two games better than the Yankees, 21/2 better than the Mariners, 31/2 better than the Angels, and 10 better than the A's.

What's more, Henry said, ''We have the best run differential in the American League. We lead the league in hitting. And we lead the league in pitching. So why aren't we in first place?''

Indeed, why?

''To me, the reason is our record of 11-17 in one-run games,'' Henry said.

Henry, who referred to in-depth studies on one-run games by analyst Bill James, ruled out the bullpen or manager Grady Little as underlying causes of the team's woeful record in one-run games. ''That's where luck shows up more than any other area of baseball,'' Henry said, citing James.

How else to account for killer moments such as Jason Giambi's check-swing single in the ninth inning last month in the Bronx that ultimately doomed the Sox that day?

''We may have the right players on the field and we may be as good as anybody on the field,'' Henry said, ''but there are undoubtedly cases where balls fall in or don't fall in. You can call it luck, but what I call it is a small sample. These things kind of even out over a large sample.''

The bottom line? ''Usally bad one-run records mean the team is going to rebound the next year,'' he said. ''But it also could mean they're going to rebound in the same year.''

It is truly refreshing to find that Henry not only reads James, but seems to understand him as well. Is there any doubt why I love this guy?

Also, he had some interesting comments on the A's, the farm system, and free-agency. Those comments can be found here:
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/22...ght_A_s+.shtml

The owner "gets it" and that makes me a happy fan...

[Max Power]

Disagree. As long as he remains in Bud's pocket, he doesn't "get it."

[soxfan121]

Look, I've yet to see any credible evidence that he is "in Bud's pocket" or that there was some "conspiracy" to involved - and besides, that topic has been beaten to death here and in other places. That Henry may or may not be part of the problem from a labor standpoint really has nothing to do with his comments or his aptitude as a student of baseball.

It is encouraging to see an owner who seems to "get" James ideas. That was the discussion I was hoping for. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem possible to discuss BASEBALL without clouding it with LABOR PROBLEMS.

That's really disappointing to me.

[tortured angel]

It's definitely a step in the right direction. It seems someone like him would demand accountability from his employees and maybe even demand justification for the moves they make including what it does to help the team win now and in the future. And maybe even force them to back their moves with facts and niumbers beyond "proven veteran" or "good batting average.

I have watched the Angels go from the Autry years where no aging free agent was too expensive and unproductive to the Disney years where bottom line and profit margin take precedent over good baseball. They have finally put a team out with core players (the Erstad signing aside) from their own system making the most impact. If Tavares would let the baseball people make some decisions based on winning baseball they might be able to win for a few years. Unfortunately, I get the feeling they will try to dump if they don't win this year to make a potential sale more attractive.

[Max Power]

Originally posted by soxfan121
That Henry may or may not be part of the problem from a labor standpoint really has nothing to do with his comments or his aptitude as a student of baseball.

It is encouraging to see an owner who seems to "get" James ideas. That was the discussion I was hoping for. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem possible to discuss BASEBALL without clouding it with LABOR PROBLEMS.

sf121 - - sorry if I hit a nerve.

I applied "getting it" to the big picture - not just following James - hence my comment. Wasn't Dan Duquette a fantasy baseball player and a quasi-sabermetrician? Did he "get it" too?

Where I'm going with this - - just because someone read a baseball abstract, and liked it, and can quote from it, it doesn't mean he's good for a team, or even the game.

Boss Stein would not be able to to explain run differential if you put a gun to his head and told him that his life depended on it. But, he does understand that quality doesn't cost, it saves. Maybe that's a more important lesson? Not sure, but, that's not the debate here.

Back to Henry - agreed, love him for understanding the game. However, before I start wearing "I [heart] JWH" t-shirts, he'll need to have himself surgically removed from Bud's rear end, Again, just my opinion.........

[soxfan121]

Thanks for the explanation Steve. Nerves are a bit frayed right now, and I apologize if it came off harshly.

I do think that an owner who takes the time to try and understand the intracacies and concepts of the game (as they are developed and refined by folks like James) is good for the game and his franchise. As you alluded to, most owners do not have this level of understanding about "the breaks of the game". That is not their "typical" responsibility; signing checks and driving revenue is their responsibility. To see an owner who understands the game on the field as a fan and an analyst is pretty refreshing. Further, for an owner to _understand_ why his team is struggling and why it is more likely that they will rebound is good for the fan base, good for the payroll (no stupid, "we need to make changes" reactions), and good for the players on the team. Players understand that the "breaks of the game" are more luck than anything else; to hear that owner understands that too has to have a postiive effect, however small, in the clubhouse.

As for GM's they HAVE to understand "quasi-sabermetric" principles; it is their primary job responsibility. Duquette, Billy Beane, Kevin Towers, JP Riccardi are all fantasy buffs and "quasi-sabermetricians", as they should be - it's their job. Owners have a different set of responsibilities. However, if an owner understands the "quasi-sabermetric" concepts of the game, he can only contribute positively to the aspects of the scouting, development, and transactions of his franchise.

And believe me, it is not my intention to have any Yanqui fans wearing "I [heart] JWH" shirts; feel free to don that "George is GOD" shirt all you want.

[Max Power]

Originally posted by soxfan121
Thanks for the explanation Steve. Nerves are a bit frayed right now, and I apologize if it came off harshly.

No offense here - no need to apologize. All opinions are welcome and encouraged!

[sweaver]

I agree with sf121, it's a good sign.

I agree with Max, it is too early to make a judgment.

Play ball!

[hmrsf]

Let me be the first to wear the "I love John Henery" shirt.

I will tell you why. This is an owner who gets it. Maybe it took owning the Marlins to appreciate fan base of the Red Sox.

This year has been a pure joy. Everything has changed. The stuff shirt mentality is gone.

I was very leery of the new owners. I wanted the local land developers to get the franchise. The better group is running it.

I am not sure if Henery is in Buds pocket. He is making deals like the season will move on. Let's see.

[Skip]

Henry got a free pass from Budzilla and his cabinet. But he seems to be way way way up on the build the Sox and make the fans love 'em scale, and that is (according to MasterCard) priceless. Seems to be doing tons of good things.

If he/they turn into a *whatever Bud says* puppet over the next few months, I will be double alienated, especially given the issues over stacking the deck on the original purchase. This is a win/double-lose situation for the RS nation, at least to this otherwise uninterested midwestern fan.

And in truth, I'll wear hm's "I love John Henery" (sic) shirt, just because I appreciate competition for the Yankees, even while not slamming the popular reasons for blaming the lack of said competition. Yankees rule until deposed - oh yeah, that already happened except that nobody seems to remember, except as a "fluke".

[hmrsf]

Originally posted by Skip


If he/they turn into a *whatever Bud says* puppet over the next few months, I will be double alienated, especially given the issues over stacking the deck on the original purchase. This is a win/double-lose situation for the RS nation, at least to this otherwise uninterested midwestern fan.

A

He did not stack the deck. Dolan had the highest offer for the complete package of the team.

The rules of the sale were to sell to the highest bidder of Yawkey Trust shares. John Henery offered the greatest amount of $$$$ to Yawkey trust and less to minor holders.

Dolan wanted the whole ball of wax. He offered too much to get the minor holders to sell and not enough to fufill the terms of the sale to Yawkee Trust.


That aside, if he is a pocket vote for Bud, I will be hugely disapointed.

[moose]

Originally posted by hmrsf


He did not stack the deck. Dolan had the highest offer for the complete package of the team.

The rules of the sale were to sell to the highest bidder of Yawkey Trust shares. John Henery offered the greatest amount of $$$$ to Yawkey trust and less to minor holders.

Dolan wanted the whole ball of wax. He offered too much to get the minor holders to sell and not enough to fufill the terms of the sale to Yawkee Trust.


That aside, if he is a pocket vote for Bud, I will be hugely disapointed.

guys, gals, let's remember something:
bud is a true believer. bud is of course (seemingly) always acting in his own self-interest and the interests of those similarly situated --- BUT, bud also believes that his way is the best way. so by giving preference to those that have the same "view of the game," bud is simply getting a team player on board. you can call it fixing, but i'll call it business.

i will also call it "not necessarily in the interest of the fans*"

*which apparently doesnt exist anyway

[hmrsf]

Moose, we had the MA AG investigating this. It had to be dropped when infact Yawkey Trust recieved it's highest bid.

Dollan did not offer the highest bid for Yawkey Trust shares, Henery did.

You can not rewrite history to support your antiBud stance.

[moose]

Originally posted by hmrsf
Moose, we had the MA AG investigating this. It had to be dropped when infact Yawkey Trust recieved it's highest bid.

Dollan did not offer the highest bid for Yawkey Trust shares, Henery did.

You can not rewrite history to support your antiBud stance.

i didn't say that dolan bid higher than henry for the yawkey shares. i just said that i would expect bud to give preference to someone with the same view of the game, and that if he did then that should not necessarily be viewed so negatively.

[hmrsf]

I know all of Red Sox Nation are keeping open eyes on Henery. If he Does a bend over for Bud............his honey moon will be over in Boston.

Until then the I love John Henery t-shirt is intact.