Brotherly Love In October?

[NetShrine]

OK, guess it's time to start considering (discussing) whether or not the Phils are the real deal. I think most truly always figured they would be the first surprise team this year to come to earth. Maybe not? Thoughts?

From ESPN.com, Stark:

The Phillies held an 8-game lead in the NL East. That's the biggest lead after two months of any NL team in the eight-season history of six-division play.

In the last 20 seasons, only two other NL teams have awoken on June 1 with a lead that big -- the 1990 Reds (8 games) and the 1986 Mets (9½). Both won the World Series.

[BuzzBuzzard]

The amazing thing to me is that I continue to hear respected (?) people in baseball predict that the wheels will fall off. The Phils have not yet been given any respect. The spanking they took in Montreal over the weekend did not help. What will it take?

[NetShrine]

The Phils are:
8th in the NL out of 16 in OPS & 6th in WHIP.

That's nice, but still around the middle of the pack.

Their success is due to their bullpen. And, if you look at the names in the pen (Mesa, Bottalico, Cormier), I think that's why they get no respect - - most think that group can't keep preforming well.

[BuzzBuzzard]

Exchanging Paul Byrd for KC's Jose Santiago, the Phillies pen now has two members of KC's pen from 2000 (Bottalico is the other), I can't see them holding on. Eventually, the loss of Lieberthal will catch (sorry) up to them also.

It won't be the Mets who catch them, but I don't think they hold on.

[NetShrine]

Braves are only 5 out now - - doable, for sure.

[mainsr]

Good Neyer piece on the Phils. It's too bad Lieberthal got hurt (although I did pick up Estrada for my crummy Rotisserie team), because this may be the one best shot for the Lieberthal/Rolen/Abreu team.

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 6
I keep reading that the Phillies are playing well -- their three-game losing streak notwithstanding -- despite the fact that their hitters really haven't hit their strides yet. Well, that may have been true a month ago, but is it still true? Below are the OPS for the seven Philly regulars -- they don't have a catcher with more than 121 at-bats -- next to their career OPS entering this season:

2001 OPS Pre-2001
Bobby Abreu 888 928
Pat Burrell 862 822
Travis Lee 832 733
Scott Rolen 810 886
Doug Glanville 730 731
Marlon Anderson 694 647
Jimmy Rollins 692

Abreu, Burrell, Glanville, and Anderson are all doing about what they've done before. Travis Lee is doing significantly better than what he's done before, though of course some would argue he's now simply living up to his talent. Rolen is 76 points short of his pre-2001 OPS, but that's not hugely significant after two months. Rollins is a rookie, and he's doing about what his minor-league stats suggested he would do.

All of which is to say, there's no objective reason to think that the Phillies are going to appreciably improve their run production with the talent at hand. The Phils currently rank 10th in the National League in scoring, and that's about where they belong.

Before you Phillies fans jump me, though, let me hasten to say this ... The Phillies have a real chance to win the pennant. It's funny, I picked them for second place a year ago or two, and of course they wound up in the tank. They're back this year with a rotation that looks weaker than it did a year ago -- remember, Curt Schilling and Andy Ashby were both Phillies this time last year -- but isn't. Meanwhile, the bullpen ... well, let's just say I didn't expect Jose Mesa and Ricky Bottalico to pitch this well. Here are the Phillies' top five relievers, in terms of innings pitched:

GP IP Sv W-L ERA
Cormier 23 18 1 3-0 3.00
Bottalico 28 32 2 2-3 3.13
Mesa 24 24 16 1-0 3.38
Gomes 25 29 1 4-1 3.45
Brock 21 28 0 2-0 4.18
131 20 12-4 3.44

No, there's no Mariano Rivera or Troy Percival here. But if your top five guys combine for a 3.44 ERA, you're not going to blow a lot of late-inning leads. The Phillies recently lost Gomes to a knee injury, so Monday they traded for Kansas City's Jose Santiago to takes Gomes' spot. Santiago was getting cuffed around with the Royals, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if getting away from Gunnery Sergeant Anthony Muser does wonders for Santiago's numbers (and Santiago tossed a couple of scoreless innings last night in his National League debut).

Bottom line, though, the Braves simply have to be considered the favorites in the East. Yes, they're five games behind the Phillies. And yes, their offense is terrible. But the Braves have plenty of room for improvement. John Smoltz should get stronger, Kevin Millwood will eventually come of the DL, and John Schuerholz will, presumably, swallow his pride and acquire a hitter (or hitters) to make up for the poor production the Braves are getting from imports like B.J. Surhoff, Brian Jordan, Rico Brogna and Quilvio Veras.

Meanwhile, where will the Phillies get better? They've got a set lineup, with Glanville the only good candidate for replacement. The starters are doing well enough, but aren't likely to get better. The bullpen is, if anything, likely to decline at least moderately.

It would be a wonderful story if the Phillies could unseat the dynastic Braves, but it's simply too early to assume that they have a significant chance of doing so. Now, if the Phils had J.D. Drew in center field ...

[jpalexa]

The Braves are 4 games back after tonight -- sweeping the lowly Bucs and Expos in consecutive series.

I still contend -- despite this little six-game winning streak -- that the Braves are playing fundamentally BAD baseball (and BAD managing right now, too) and just happened to get healthy against a couple of bad teams.

No way the Braves play the kind of game they did tonight (last in the Montreal series) and beat the Yanks -- or any above-.500 team.

The Phillies have a chance, though I tend to agree with Neyer in that Philly isn't like to get much better and the Braves have more potential to. Phils are on pace to win 102 or so -- I just can't see that...though why not?!?

The NL East is weak this year (who'd of thunk?) and the NL West seems mediocre as well. Are the Cubs going to last? Even so, who would give Seattle much of a fight? I see the ALDS and ALCS (not the World Series) as the best baseball to be played in October this year.

[NetShrine]

This could be a fun series in NY - this weekend. Bravos v. Yanks. Both teams still needing to make up ground.

[NetShrine]

Shoot, the Phillies aren't even drawing fans:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/attendance

What's up with that?

[jpalexa]

The Yanks will take 2 -- if not 3 -- of three from the Braves. Bank it.

Yeah, the Phillies attendance is down 11% -- while fielding a winning team is part of the equation to get fannies into seats, I guess it isn't everything (see below)!

Maybe even the Phillie Phan don't believe in their team and are just avoiding the inevitable disappointment (from their perspective)?

Maybe the Philadelphia fans are all home watching the 76ers?

Attendance comparisons:

Phillies -11% (where are ya, Phillie Phans???)
Braves -14%
Marlins +2%
Mets +1%
Expos -35% (down a third from a horrible 2000...ouch)

Cubs -5% (where are ya, Cub Fans???)
Cards -5%
Brewers +114% (new ballpark)
Astros -16% (no more New Stadium novelty)
Reds -22%
Pirates +45% (new ballpark)

D'backs -12% (1st place, Unit, Schilling -- and still losing $$$)
Dodgers -10%
Rockies -2%
Giants -1% (no more New Stadium novelty)
Padres -4%


Red Sox +6%
Yankees -2%
Blue Jays +10%
Orioles -15%
D-Rays -14%

Indians -11% (first non-sellouts this year...bored with winning a la Atlanta?)
Twins +86% (winning *does* help)
White Sox -7%
Tigers -29% (no more New Stadium novelty)
Royals -13%

Mariners +13%
Angels -5%
A's +41% (suckers who bought season tix last year???)
Rangers +6% (yeah, A-Rod's helpin' the old bottom line, eh?)

[NetShrine]

JP - great post. Thanks!

Twins up 86%!

[jpalexa]

Thanks. Part of what this reinforces in my brain is that the "new stadium" arguments given by teams to municipalities and tax (and tix) payers is a sham. Take these numbers along with those Fan Cost Index numbers from another post (see below), and you would think that the hoodwinking would cease. Yeah, right.

2000 highest FCI % increases:
==================================================
Detroit (52.5%), San Francisco (45.8%), Houston (34.5%), Seattle (31.4%)

2001 vs 2000 attendance differences:
==================================================
Tigers -29% (no more New Stadium novelty)
Giants -1% (no more New Stadium novelty)
Astros -16% (no more New Stadium novelty)
Mariners +13%

2001 highest FCI % increases:
==================================================
Pittsburgh (44.3%), Milwaukee (28.6%)

2001 vs 2000 attendance differences:
==================================================
Pirates +45% (new ballpark)
Brewers +114% (new ballpark)

[jpalexa]

Originally posted by NetShrine
Twins up 86%!

Well, when you were only averaging <12K/game this time last year, any increase is going to look large percentage-wise!