David Ortiz #34 The Greatest Clutch Hitter in the History of the Boston Red Sox

[Crash Course]

http://www.boston.com/sports/basebal...like_the_past/

think Yaz and the ghost of Ted have an issue with this?

[KCBOOMER]

As good as Ortiz has been these last TWO seasons Williams' has seven seasons that were as good as both of Ortiz's in terms of RCAA. Ortiz is up to about 10% of Ted's career RCAA. I'll take a chance and say that some of Ted's hits came in the clutch.

[Jayhawk Bob]

I don't recall Yaz being all that clutch. He was huge in '67, but when I was a youngster watching him from afar in the late '70s, he seemed to miss those opportunities. Maybe the popup against Gossage in '78 is stuck in my head.

I saw this post and looked up Ortiz's "clutch" numbers for 2002-2004 -

RISP: .293/.371/.504/.875
RISP w/2 Outs: .272/.359/.529/.888
Bases loaded: .378/.400/.667/1.067

Now here's Manny -

RISP: .364/.514/.665/1.179
RISP w/2 Outs: .335/.519/.629/1.148
Bases loaded: .297/.372/.676/1.048

Other than with the bases loaded, it looks like Manny is more clutch. And, with the bases loaded, Johnny Damon is actually better in the last three years: .405/.490/.667/1.157

All of which begs the question, if the guy is arguably not the best clutch hitter on his current team, how can he be the best in the history of the franchise?

If they modified it for post-season play only, maybe his case would look better.

[Crash Course]

SI says A-Rod is just as clutch as D.O. -

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200.../09/13/al.mvp/

[RedSeat]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk Bob

I don't recall Yaz being all that clutch. He was huge in '67, but when I was a youngster watching him from afar in the late '70s, he seemed to miss those opportunities. Maybe the popup against Gossage in '78 is stuck in my head.

I saw this post and looked up Ortiz's "clutch" numbers for 2002-2004 -

RISP: .293/.371/.504/.875
RISP w/2 Outs: .272/.359/.529/.888
Bases loaded: .378/.400/.667/1.067

Now here's Manny -

RISP: .364/.514/.665/1.179
RISP w/2 Outs: .335/.519/.629/1.148
Bases loaded: .297/.372/.676/1.048

Other than with the bases loaded, it looks like Manny is more clutch. And, with the bases loaded, Johnny Damon is actually better in the last three years: .405/.490/.667/1.157

All of which begs the question, if the guy is arguably not the best clutch hitter on his current team, how can he be the best in the history of the franchise?

If they modified it for post-season play only, maybe his case would look better.

I don't have a strong opinion in the "clutch" hitter debate, but the stats you've shown don't really prove anything. The score of the game is at least as important as the runners on base or the number of outs as to whether the situation is "clutch" or not. Ortiz has a lot of hits/RBI/HR this year in clutch situations. Of course he also has a lot of hits/RBI/HR this year in other situations. Whether or not he's raising his game in those key spots isn't clear to me.

[Jayhawk Bob]

Originally Posted by RedSeat

I don't have a strong opinion in the "clutch" hitter debate, but the stats you've shown don't really prove anything. The score of the game is at least as important as the runners on base or the number of outs as to whether the situation is "clutch" or not. Ortiz has a lot of hits/RBI/HR this year in clutch situations. Of course he also has a lot of hits/RBI/HR this year in other situations. Whether or not he's raising his game in those key spots isn't clear to me.

Well then I'm glad I wasn't trying to "prove" anything. Just pointing out some facts in the absence of any. Personally, I don't care how John Henry labels David Ortiz, or whether or not that label is correct, and my guess is that Ortiz doesn't care much either (unless it helps him at renegotiation time).

[Makofan]

Remember in that BuckY Dent game Yaz hit a HR - what did the rest of the team do?

[RedSeat]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk Bob

Well then I'm glad I wasn't trying to "prove" anything. Just pointing out some facts in the absence of any. Personally, I don't care how John Henry labels David Ortiz, or whether or not that label is correct, and my guess is that Ortiz doesn't care much either (unless it helps him at renegotiation time).

I wasn't suggesting you were trying to prove anything. Poor choice of words on my part. I was just pointing out that those numbers don't really tell the whole story. My interpretation of what a clutch player would be, is someone who actually raises his game in key situations. Key situations can include the ones you listed, but I would also consider almost any late at bat in a close game to be a clutch situation. And also, what I'd consider a clutch player is not one who just hits well in those situations, but one who hits better than he usually does in those situations. Ortiz certainly has his share of key hits over the past few years, but is that just becasue he's a very good hitter who has a lot of hits in all situations?

Here are some stats I found on a different message board.

Batting by Game Run Margin, through Sept. 14

          ---------  David Ortiz ---------    ------- Alex Rodriguez ---------
Margin     PA     BA     OBP    SA      OPS    PA     BA     OBP    SA      OPS
1 – 2*     261   .318   .418   .701   1.119    248   .255   .347   .463    .810
3 to 5     232   .318   .422   .552    .974    237   .323   .447   .599   1.046
6 or more  153   .231   .320   .515    .835    148   .420   .486   .809   1.295

*includes all extra inning games

         -Ortiz-    --ARod-
         OPS (PA)   OPS (PA)
2 run W  1195 (33)   828 (36)
1 run W  1151 (87)   880 (81)
Ex In W  1286 (23)  1029 (21)
Ex In L   495 (11)   121 (17)
1 run L  1481 (50)   985 (51)
2 run L  1026 (47)   611 (42)
..
6+  run  W   870 (86)  1790 (93)
6+  run  L   779 (67)   523 (55)

I'm not claiming that these numbers tell the whole story either, but they certainly seem to suggest that Ortiz does his best hitting when the game is on the line.

[Makofan]

David Ortiz is a product of his home environment who hits worse in Aug/Sep/Oct than earlier in the year. I despise him almost as much as Todd Helton. And Helton at least plays in the field!

[Jayhawk Bob]

Originally Posted by Makofan

David Ortiz is a product of his home environment who hits worse in Aug/Sep/Oct than earlier in the year. I despise him almost as much as Todd Helton. And Helton at least plays in the field!

That's not really true this year. His home/road OPS split still favors Fenway, but not as much as you'd think. In fact, ARod benefits more from Yankee Stadium than Ortiz benefits from Fenway:

Ortiz - 1.039 Home OPS/.962 Road OPS
ARod - 1.116 Home/.908 Road

And Ortiz's OPS has been much higher in August and September this year:

Apr - .862
May - 1.004
Jun - .996
Jul - .937
Aug - 1.080
Sep - 1.193

[RedSeat]

Originally Posted by Makofan

David Ortiz is a product of his home environment who hits worse in Aug/Sep/Oct than earlier in the year. I despise him almost as much as Todd Helton. And Helton at least plays in the field!

Jayhawk beat me to it, but I'll add a little. Here are his monthly splits for all of his time in Boston.

Apr: 262/339/524
May: 300/384/534
Jun: 338/401/637
Jul: 292/400/609
Aug: 278/383/651
Sep/Oct:299/404/632

Except for a slight dip in July (down to 1.009) his OPS goes up every month.

[Makofan]

1) I was a bit too harsh
2) I was looking at career splits, not the last few years

Sorry about that - just having a bad day and it bothers me seeing fat tubs of goo who can't run or field being able to play due to the DH

[Jayhawk Bob]

Originally Posted by Makofan

1) I was a bit too harsh
2) I was looking at career splits, not the last few years

Sorry about that - just having a bad day and it bothers me seeing fat tubs of goo who can't run or field being able to play due to the DH

Career splits:

Home - .907 OPS, Road - .888 OPS

Pre All-Star - .912 OPS, Post All-Star - .886 OPS

[Makofan]

Exactly - he is better at home early in the season - so I don't call that clutch.