The Real Barry Bonds: 626 Homeruns

[Crash Course]

In 2000, Barry Bonds hit a (then) career high 49 homeruns. The next year, in 2001, he set the all-time single season HR mark with 73. After that, teams figured "better to walk him a couple of hundred times a year" than let him hit all these homeruns.

Coincidentally (wink, wink, nod, nod), about the same time (2000) Bonds (through his personal trainer) established a relationship with BALCO - the firm that admits to providing athletes with performance enhancing drugs - - the same drugs that Bonds admitted to using, albeit supposedly (sound of clearing throat) unknowingly.

Through the 2004 season, Barry Bonds has 703 career homeruns. Just for the fun of it, I looked at his season HR marks for 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 and attempted to adjust them for BALCO help.

For 2000, I took Bonds PA and HR for the three years prior and came up with a HR/PA rate. I then took his PA over those three years, divided them by 3, and applied the rate to the total. Doing this, I predict that it would be reasonable to say Barry should have hit 37 HR in 2000 - not the 49 that he had with the BALCO product assist.

I then did the same thing for 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 - moving forward, taking the 3 years prior, etc. The only difference is that I took the "assumed right HR" mark for the year prior, if applicable.

The results yielded 36 HRs for Bonds in each season - 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004. Note the huge difference between 73 and 36 in 2001.

Applying the "new" HR totals for 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 to Bonds career record yields that Barry probably would have about 626 HR in his career now (not 703) if not for his BALCO help. (A difference of 77 HR.)

Now, this is really just guess work - but, it's an interesting notion to noodle, given the news of the day around Bonds and BALCO.

[LargeBill]

Considering his age during those seasons, it is reasonable to assume Bonds would not have hit at the same rate as the previous 3 years. One of the benefits of steroids is muscle regeneration. Where people normally take a two day approach to strength training (workout one day then muscles recover next) some one taking HGH or andro speeds the recovery period. This also helps with the overall decline over the course of a season. The real problem with this whole thing is there is no way to know what would have been.

[Stageon]

Maybe he just finally figured out the game at age 38

[Crash Course]

Which "game"?

[Stageon]

Go ask Arnold, Big Mac, and Lyle Alzado...

[Stageon]

BTW, has anyone done an adjustment on Bonds' career HRs based on the parks he's played in? I would have to think it'd be even higher given that he played most of his games in pitchers' parks.

[pepper]

For Hank Aaron's 35-year old season (1969=Bonds 2000), I took Aaron's PA and HR for the three years prior and came up with a HR/PA rate. I then took his PA over those three years, divided them by 3, and applied the rate to the total. Doing this, I predict that it would be reasonable to say Aaron should have hit 35 HR in 1969 - not the 44 that he had with whatever source of mysterious assistance.

I then did the same thing for 1970, 1971, 1972 and 1973 - moving forward, taking the 3 years prior, etc. The only difference is that I took the "assumed right HR" mark for the year prior, if applicable.

The results indicated 31 homers in 1970 (vs. his career high), 29 in 1971 (vs. his second highest in his career), 29 in 1972, and 24 in 1973 (vs. his only season where he exceeded 1 hr per 10 ab).

Applying the new HR totals, Aaron is at 638 instead of 713 (a difference of 75 home runs) and about to break Ruth's record.

Considering that consistent strenght and flexibility training and modern knowledge should make Bonds body age about 2 years less than Aaron's chronological age in the same season, I must condlude that this is proof positive that Aaron was on steroids.

[SteveP]

First I really do want to correct Steve on something that he said that was incorrect. Bonds did not say that he had used steroids in the leaked Grand Jury Testimony.

OK the Chronical and the Daily News and the Post and the Buster Olney's of this world have picked up that "fact" - but wahtever the facts are, that's not what he said. He said...according to the illegally leaked documents, that he received things from Balco and took them. And then the prosecutors asked whether he knew then that they were steroids and he said no.

That's the beginning and the end of the testimony in reality except comments about flaxseed oil and such.

These comment are not admitting that they were steroids at all. They were saying dod you get thigns from Balco - answer yes. What? - supplements, flaxseed oil. Did you know these were steroids? No. Do you know now they were steroids? No, I am neither a chemist nor a doctor...McDonalds could give me steroids in their burgers...they say they are burgers and generally I don't take them to a lab to test them. Balco said they sent me flaxseed oil. likewise I am not a chemist nor a doctor and assume they sent me flaxseed oil.

Mr. Bonds did you know that Victor Conte claims that he sent steroids labelled as flaxseed oil to other athletes? I hear that Mr. Conte is saying that, but I also understand that Mr. Conte's business also ships just plain flaxssed oil to many people, including professional atheletes.

But Mr. Bonds, your friend Greg Anderson said in a bar that he gave you steroids. Mr Prosecutor, Shaquille O'Neal stated in front of cameras that he slept with everyone from Cyndy Crawford, the Williams Sistsers to the Bobsey twins. Doesn't everyone trade off on celebrities from weight trainers, professional basketball players to....prosecutors?

Pepper brings up the better point. Is Bonds 'phenomenon' and phenomena at all? The answer is a resounding NO. Bonds jump to 73, is around the mid point of jumps to plus 50 HR seasons. It is almost impossible to evaluate any ratios or statistics based on ratios due to opposing teams "strategies" when facing Bonds" and that can't at all be laid on Bonds door BALCO or not - the strategy magnifies not just Bonds performance but ANY hitters performances.

Bonds may have phenomenal numbers, but given the current hitting climate and disbalance between managers who understand putting people on base is the worst thing that you can do and managers who thing...awwwww...it's jeeeest waaaaahn leeeelt baaaaahse...eeeets waaaaaayfeh theen. My God a Bonds in this environment is an absolute inevitable steroids or not.

[Stageon]

I have no idea whether Bonds used steriods knowingly or not, for how long, or anything like that. He has bulked up a lot in recent years, so it seems like a reasonable proposition. What I do know is he's been automatically presumed guilty by the media and most fans without any hard evidence from either within the game or outside it, despite a seeming crusade to discredit the man's achievements. It's inevitable when an athlete is this good. It's not just the 73HR season; his whole career has been amazing and the last four years especially have been pretty much unprecented. The overall production numbers continue to climb; he's finishing like 1st or 2nd in almost every major offensive category (walks, obviously, but also HRs, BA, SLG, OBP, RBI and of course OPS). His last two seasons, despite hitting "only" 45 HRs each, might have been his best yet.

Do I like Bonds personally? Not really. I don't know him personally, but he doesn't strike me as a very humble guy or someone I'd like to be friends with. Has he benefitted from supplements in some fashion? Seems likely, though lots of other players in the game probably have too and have still not popped 73 baseballs into the stands despite hardly ever seeing a good pitch. Is Barry one of the most talented, accomplished (except that WS ring), and fascinating players to ever play the game? Of course he is. Listen, I hated the Bulls during their big run in the 90s but I respected the hell out of MJ for what he did on the court. Same thing I think with Bonds and fans of the game. Love to watch him play, break records, but still "hate" him and dismiss those records out of jealousy, or whatever. That's just sports.

Justin

[Crash Course]

FWIW, Bonds' mistress now says Barry was juiced. See: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/3394142

[nyy26wc]

Who cares what a mistress has to say?

By definition, they are not exactly honest individuals.